KDFW LIVE ODDS

SATURDAY MORNING ODDS (ML/Current):

1 Anthony's Cross Eoin Harty 30 65
2 Astrology Steven Asmussen 30 58
3 Brethren Todd Pletcher 15 18
4 Clubhouse Ride Craig Lewis 50 99
5 Comma to the Top Peter Miller 20 99
6 Decisive Moment Juan Arias 50 99

7 Dialed In Nicholas Zito 10 8
8 Gourmet Dinner Steven Standridge 30 99
9 Indian Winter Jerry Hollendorfer 50 99
10 J P's Gusto David Hofmans 20 86
11 Jaycito Bob Baffert 20 33
12 Machen Neil Howard 30 50

13 Mucho Macho Man Katherine Ritvo 30 99
14 Rogue Romance Kenneth McPeek 30 59
15 Santiva Eddie Kenneally 30 79
16 Silver Medallion Steven Asmussen 20 85
17 Soldat Kiaran McLaughlin 20 29
18 Stay Thirsty Todd Pletcher 30 68

19 Sweet Ducky Kelly Breen 50 99
20 The Factor Bob Baffert 20 40
21 Tiz Blessed Chad Brown 30 99
22 To Honor and Serve William Mott 10 17
23 Uncle Mo Todd Pletcher 9/2 3
24 All Other Three Ye 5/2 1

Same reason you'd make any bet. Because you think you have an edge. If missing twice means no edge, I'd be in big trouble.


--Dunbar

these things are so ridiculous.....i guess i could put a few bucks on anthonys cross at 65-1. but who in their right mind would bet 1-1 or 3-1 in a futures pool......practically 3 months in advance???? if recent history is any indication you should get 3-1 that pletchers horse even makes it. i seriously don't see how these things survive...its got to be the hype.

It's a bet like any other horse bet. You have info, and you look at the info to see if there's a bet that is an overlay. It has the same takeout as any other Churchill bet.

With any horse bet, in addition to the track take you're up against inside information. I don't know if the amount of inside info is greater with the Future Wager or not. If you think it is greater, then that's one good reason to stay away from the future wager. Otherwise, it's a bet like any other bet.* I happen to think it has offered some monster edges in the past.

--Dunbar

* But where else do you get people betting on horses when they could have waited a few hours to make the same bet, but could have watched the horse actually run a race in the meantime?! I like betting against that kind of bettor.

After todays Risen Star some of these will really change. This kind of bet is a true gamble. Payoffs can be good. No way I would ever bet anyone under 10-1. To Honor and Serve has some appeal to me at 17-1. This may even creep up more after the Risen Star today. I usually just bet $20-25 on these type of wagers.

I just played some exactas

Exacta box - Santiva with Uncle Mo / Field

Exacta Box - Santiva with Brethen/Dialed In/Jaycito/Mucho/Rogue/Soldat/Stay Thirsty/To Honor and Serve

Why do you like Santiva?

I was going to ask him the same question. Perhaps he's high?

I liked his race yesterday, I do question his ability to get 10 furlongs though.

I was going to play a win bet but I like the flexibility of the exacta box and wanted some action. I've never got involved in any of these future pools before so we'll see.

The horse I wanted to play was To Honor and Serve, but at 10/1, I will pass on it, if he were 20/1 I would have made him the exacta key

Uncle Mo must bring out the betters. With one hour to go. Handle is up $60K combined win and exacta over last year.

I also was interested in Santiva at odds of 40/1 or higher. His first race off the shelf yesterday he went wide on both turns and came up a little short. Seems he has every right to move up off that race. Also ran a decent race over the CD strip. I'm not saying he is the most likely winner or anything like that, but i think 40+ to 1 is pretty good value and he could very well move up.

Santiva can't win the Derby. . . Tiz Blessed and Mucho Macho Man seem like the only ones I'd throw a few $ on for fun. . . The hope would be that MMM gets purchased privately and turned over to a better trainer.

Santiva cant win the Derby, but Sway Away is the goods? Please DUDE..........
Tiz Blessed was sick and Brown has not a clue, plan or idea of what to do with him next. Article was in the Saturday Gazette.

He ran really well.

I always make some token win bets on these futures, and played some exactas for the first time.

I played:

Dialed IN in the first and second slots in exactas with Clubhouse Ride, Indian Winter, Mucho Macho Man, Uncle Mo, and the field.

Uncle Mo in exactas over Clubhouse Ride, Indian Winter, and Mucho Macho Man.

Clubhouse Ride, Indian Winter, and Mucho Macho Man to win.

Santiva has proven that he's completely mediocre. . . He's a Giant's Causeway. . . I get it.

Sway Away just came off a lay-off for a trainer with terrible lay-off stats to run a 100 Beyer at a distance that factors to be much shorter than his best based on pedigree. He's not "the goods," but he is the type of horse who could put it all together in the right race. The only problem with him is that his close today looked better than it really was, so lots of otherwise clueless people will jump on the bandwagon.

I put $10 on Tiz Blessed just for fun. . . If he remains sick, I'll survive. As you know, I have THAS at 30-1 for a lot more money. . . he's 10-1 in Pool 1.

Santiva ran ok - but I still don't like him at all. No shot for the Derby.

At least Sway Away can be moved up and called an X Facor. The Factor still remains on my X Factor section as well ... but if I had to pick between Sway Away or The Factor for the Kentucky Derby .. I'd lean to Sway Away.

I was completely underwhelmed by the 1-2 finishers of the Risen Star. I guess Mucho Macho Man is better around two turns but that was a slow pace and the 3-4 finishers both received poor rides.

Santiva never was good and still isn't. I'd need 250-1 to even be mildly interested.

Here is my other reason that I think you and a few others might at least understand my logic, even though you don't agree with it.

Mucho Macho Man probably got back to his 0.5 yesterday on the TG's. That means Santiva ran about that or maybe a 1, thus a top, he could be primed for a major effort depending on how many races they run him in. I think he moves forward, and I think he has a real shot at winning the LA Derby, and if he does, he is 10/1 in the next future pool. He is 45/1, I've bet worse before

Back in 2003 I laid $20 on Funny Cide in the first pool. He was the second-longest shot in the field at 93/1. I know this is a major redboard, but I swear to god it's the truth. Funny Cide won the Derby at 12/1 odds, and I cashed my future bet for $1800!

I got hooked with that...obviously. Since Funny Cide, I've come up empty with my future wagers. The closest I've gotten since then was a future on Closing Argument in 2005.....finished 2nd at 70/1. I think my future on him was something like 40/1....whatever.

This year, I laid $20 on the other Pletcher/Repole horse, Stay Thirsty at 40/1, and I also laid $10 on Jaycito at 20/1...just because he's Baffert. For the record, I also bought $10 on Indian Winter at 71/1....scratched out of the San Vicente today....yuck!

The fact is that this future pool is fun! You always have to wait until the last 15 minutes or so because it's pari-mutuel, but if you can't get to 'Vegas to get your fixed odds bet down, this is the next best thing.

I would put $1 on Gourmet Dinner at 1000/1

He's looking more like Chik-fil-A.

That's high grade fast food in some parts. And lets face it these horses ain't eatin' good. All it takes is the right chemist, trainer change, jockey switch. It's not like he got destroyed and they're all in love with the winner.

Fly Delta!

Live on that stuff.

yeah, you make a point. but to me betting on some horse 3 months ahead of time at 3-1 when hes probably going to be not much lower than that anyway(if he even runs). same with the field at 1-1............really 1-1 , whats the objective?....throw your money on the floor or risk it for 3 months at even money or do people just want to say "i cashed in the future pool". thats where the money is so my question is "who bets that?" frankly if you are betting anything under 30-1, you are nuts. a friend of mine loved giacomo....he bet him in the futures............the horse started losing and paid more on derby day.....3 months later and live....yeah, thats a great bet....

FINAL POOL ONE ODDS

1 Anthony's Cross Eoin Harty 30 45
2 Astrology Steven Asmussen 30 48
3 Brethren Todd Pletcher 15 15
4 Clubhouse Ride Craig Lewis 50 99
5 Comma to the Top Peter Miller 20 90
6 Decisive Moment Juan Arias 50 99

7 Dialed In Nicholas Zito 10 8
8 Gourmet Dinner Steven Standridge 30 85
9 Indian Winter Jerry Hollendorfer 50 71
10 J P's Gusto David Hofmans 20 79
11 Jaycito Bob Baffert 20 21
12 Machen Neil Howard 30 49

13 Mucho Macho Man Katherine Ritvo 30 30
14 Rogue Romance Kenneth McPeek 30 34
15 Santiva Eddie Kenneally 30 37
16 Silver Medallion Steven Asmussen 20 66
17 Soldat Kiaran McLaughlin 20 18
18 Stay Thirsty Todd Pletcher 30 40

19 Sweet Ducky Kelly Breen 50 79
20 The Factor Bob Baffert 20 25
21 Tiz Blessed Chad Brown 30 79
22 To Honor and Serve William Mott 10 10
23 Uncle Mo Todd Pletcher 9/2 7-2
24 All Other Three Ye 5/2 2

If you think 3-1 (which turned out to be 7-2) on Uncle Mo is ridiculously low, then that implies that some other horse is probably an overlay. This is a routine handicapping event--an overbet favorite. Take advantage of it.

I would agree with you about the Field bet if it were indeed 1-1. But it was 2.10-1. Furthermore, if you constructed a win bet from bets in the exacta pool, you could have gotten 3.6-1 to win on the Field. I think 3.6-1 is a humongous overlay, and I don't mind in the least sitting on it 2.5 months.

--Dunbar

I just thought of something and I wish I would have tried this, could you have boxed 'All Others / All others' in the exacta?

If you can't, what happens to the exacta future wager if it comes up All Others / All Others?

Anti-redboarding post
 

I saw Santiva live Saturday and was swayed enough to place $2 future wager. My over-the-top play is Santiva over Sweet Ducky exacta!

If both should occur, this post will get a much deserved "bump" on May 7!

From the Kentucky Derby Future Wager rules:



1.3. All runners in the Mutuel Field of the "Futures Exacta" shall be treated as a "Coupled Entry" for the purposes of determining winning tickets and payouts. (In the event multiple Mutuel Field runners finish in positions affecting the determination of winning tickets and payouts, the calculation of the $2 payout will be conducted in a manner consistent with the approved method for "Coupled Entries" as contained in KHRC rules and/or the laws of the Commonwealth of Kentucky. By way of example, with #24 representing the Mutuel Field/All Others, a finish of 1/24/24/24/3 would result in an exacta payout to holders of a 1/24 ticket; a finish of 24/24/24/9 would result in an exacta payout to holders of a 24/9 ticket.)

Thanks Ranger, that is awesome...

I couldn't resist putting $20 on Brethren, even if his odds are probably too low. I like his running style and he has a win at CD. If he continues to progress, he will be lower than that on Derby Day. It's a shot I realize but kinda fun to have something to follow.

Ouch

Funny how every year this crap of injury news comes out on Monday right after the betting future is over.

You can put it right next to your eggs...kill many birds with one fat dupa.

I like Stay Thirsty too. I put a small win bet on him, Astrology. and To Honor and Serve.