You said accurate speed figures do exactly what they purport to do (I agree with you on this)- I was pointing out that these were not accurate relative to what Beyer had striven to achieve when he created them.

i didn't, apparently you are not paying attention, i conceded that point to you that that is a newer addition to the form that i think is valuable because it is an accurate statement of the facts and not someone's opinion.

What did you construe it as, knitting?

I need to know your thoughts as I'm waiting with baited breath for your Preakness picks. I mean, after all, this is your handiwork:

NT

Yeah, well I used Super Saver from the start in the tvg fantasy contest.

I don't get it.

I was referring to the notion of any relevence of track bias in speed figures.

I'm very confused by a lot of things in this thread. People keep saying things they don't really seem to mean....how can a moron like me be expected to keep up?

I sense the sarcasm, truthfully I was not as impressed as most, I think it(his closing 2nd) had more to do with tiring horses Ie. NP and POP. Let's face it they were all crawing home in the derby, you don't need me to tell you this, it could have been the track, or perhaps this was a very mediocre field.

As for my Preak pick, who's in it? However if you ask who had one of the better 3 yr old performances at CD this meet, it wasn't even in the Derby. Hurricane Ike looked as good as any yesterday if he can go the Preakness distance.

Fair enough.

Thanks for proving my point fellas.

Still I don't get how the derby was assigned a 104, that's fine I will gladly stick to not knowing and use this as leverage when people do blindly bet to this relatively "high" number.

Derby horses are overbet regardless of whether the number is 120 or 90.

What was the figure for Pickapocket's allowance win (8.5F in 1:43.2)?

Ok, can someone who routinely uses speed figures, doesn't bash them, and has a somewhat cursory to average understanding of how they are made get an explanation of how on Earth that Derby receives a 104?

Because it's not about bashing Beyer, it's not about bashing the number, it's that the number seems way out of line...and I don't understand how it was made on this particular day or the reasoning behind it.

annia


means stupid in Latin

Maybe Steve can get Andy on the show this week to explain his reasoning.

I disagree.

99

Only because of your hidden agenda

If that's the case, and assuming the Derby figure is relative to the other two-turn races on the card, if the Derby figure were "off," it's probably only at best a length or two off.

The explanation of arriving at 104
 

From Beyer's Washington Post Column:

Super Saver's winning tine of 2:04.45 was the slowest since 1989. The Churchill Downs racing strip was slow, of course, but even when the track condition is taken into account, the race still produced a modest Beyer Speed Figure of 104, the second-lowest for the Derby in 20 years.

http://www.washingtonpost.com/wp-dyn...16.html?sub=AR

NTAMM, further to your reply last night.

I agree with Beyer 100% on this quote:

This trouble doesn't mean that Ice Box is the most talented horse of this group or that he is likely to win the Preakness. The fast pace made this Derby a perfect set-up for stretch-runners like him.

Is that what you said though? You said that he wasn't even closing. He was closing. This wasn't a suck-up second for a horse with a perfect trip who never had a straw in his path. I won't argue that the race didn't set up for him because it certainly did. I also won't make Ice Box out to be something more than he is, which is a pace dependent, one run closer who is going to be a factor when the race flow is in his favor. However, I don't think you can refute the notion that given what he encountered, on this particular day, he was best.

Might that be the case going forward? Not necessarily, because we really were left with more questions than answers. Lookin at Lucky collected more excuses, Sidney's Candy stopped like he got shot, Devil May Care had a perfect trip according to her jockey and came up empty and all of this was done on a very sloppy track that had begun to dry.

NT

It's a matter of interpretation, a horse that is seemingly closing into a final 26.80 sec final 1/4 mile in a race that was collasping is more likely to be downgraded the way I see it, obcourse if he had a clear trip he probably gets up to beat SS; however It would be hard pressed to find any performance that I would say was Summer Bird like as last year. I'll have to take another look but nothing stood out to me this year except for Conveyance who will be a good horse in the future given that they can find the right races for him.

You have an uncanny way of trying to invoke your opinion on Summer Bird at every possible time.

NT

Who else would I say? He was the best example from last year. Nevermind who I like, who do you think was under the radar in this year's derby?

He's still probably trying to wrap his head around how Rachel could lose The La Troienne, so don't expect to see him for awhile.

It looks like the 2 previous 7 furlong races were rated as a minus 6 and a minus 8 on the variant, whereas the derby was a plus 7 beyer variant