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-   -   Jerry Brown's letter to TDN on HOY discussion (http://www.derbytrail.com/forums/showthread.php?t=32796)

Smooth Operator 11-15-2009 11:45 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Danzig
wonder why imaginary races would have any bearing...

Cuz that's all you got when healthy fillies are kept in the barn on CHAMPIONSHIP DAY…

Danzig 11-15-2009 11:53 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Smooth Operator
Cuz that's all you got when healthy fillies are kept in the barn on CHAMPIONSHIP DAY…


i was asking that in regards to year end voting, and jerry browns take on what occurred, not what anyone wished had occurred. they didn't face each other. imaginative scenarios of who would do what to whom had they meant should have no place in the discussion. based on the years' racing, rachel accomplished more than zenyatta.

10 pnt move up 11-15-2009 12:32 PM

I am sure its been mentioned or asked in the first three pages, but we all know that Brown advises people on horses sales, does he have a stake in this outcome?

Cannon Shell 11-15-2009 12:57 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by 10 pnt move up
I am sure its been mentioned or asked in the first three pages, but we all know that Brown advises people on horses sales, does he have a stake in this outcome?

Are you serious? You think he made up all that stuff so he can tout RA??

10 pnt move up 11-15-2009 01:02 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Cannon Shell
Are you serious? You think he made up all that stuff so he can tout RA??

You dont think he has done that before?

Cannon Shell 11-15-2009 01:11 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by 10 pnt move up
You dont think he has done that before?

The facts in this case are black and white

MaTH716 11-15-2009 01:28 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Smooth Operator
Cuz that's all you got when healthy fillies are kept in the barn on the day they give away the most money…

FTFY.

2Hot4TV 11-15-2009 01:30 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Cannon Shell
The facts in this case are black and white

RA gets HOY and history remembers undefeated Zenyatta as the fans race horse.

RA has to do alot in the future to erase what Zenyatta did in her broad picture of races. Zenyatta is a closer that managed to retire undefeated and overcome all pace conditions that were thrown at her and finished by beating the males in the Breeders Cup Classic at 1 1/4 miles which at this point RA is suspect without getting weight.

Yes she has alot to overcome in her 4 year old campain.

Lets revisit it this time next year after RA has picked her spots and the BC is on dirt. Will she still be the same world beater that alot of people think she is, or will she be the great 3 yo Filly she was.

Danzig 11-15-2009 02:20 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by 2Hot4TV
RA gets HOY and history remembers undefeated Zenyatta as the fans race horse.

RA has to do alot in the future to erase what Zenyatta did in her broad picture of races. Zenyatta is a closer that managed to retire undefeated and overcome all pace conditions that were thrown at her and finished by beating the males in the Breeders Cup Classic at 1 1/4 miles which at this point RA is suspect without getting weight.

Yes she has alot to overcome in her 4 year old campain.

Lets revisit it this time next year after RA has picked her spots and the BC is on dirt. Will she still be the same world beater that alot of people think she is, or will she be the great 3 yo Filly she was.


i don't think so.


i find it amazing that much of the arguments for the one could be made for the other. but those squarely in one camp or the other don't see that.

watch:


zenyatta gets HOY and history remembers undefeated 3 yo rachel as the fans race horse.

zenyatta has to do a lot in the future to erase what rachel did in her broad picture of races. rachel is a tactical horse that managed to go undefeated this year and overcome all pace conditions that were thrown at her and finished by beating the males in the woodward, first ever for a filly.

hoovesupsideyourhead 11-15-2009 02:51 PM

ok how many of r.a s races would zen have won..1 maybee 2

2Hot4TV 11-15-2009 02:56 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by hoovesupsideyourhead
ok how many of r.a s races would zen have won..1 maybee 2

Looking at Zenyatta's record and if history was to repeat, you would have to say all of them.

Sightseek 11-15-2009 03:16 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by freddymo
"Final exam".. This is so ridiculous. I am not suggesting you are ridiculous just your characterization of the BC Classic as an exam. What was the "Final Exam" before the BC Cup? So now all stake races including G1's have been reduced to homework assignments and quizzes? While I enjoy the BC Cup, this philosopy that the BC is a "final Exam" has caused racing immeasurable harm.

Yo Tim Ice you won the Travers but the Joke is on you as its just a Quiz..Wooley HAHA its just the Deby.. Come on man think this thru!

:D :tro:

Merlinsky 11-15-2009 03:43 PM

Seriously? Joe Drape's NY Times Counterpoint about HOY lists her floppy eared love of running as one of two things to think about when considering the big beautiful Zenyatta. I can give several things in Rachel's favor before I get to the 'she's so pretty' argument. Not that it doesn't enrapture me to behold Zenyatta, but c'mon. When is that a qualification for HOY? This is not Westminster Best in Show judging. Who wants it more and struts the best is not what HOY is about.

Quote:

Originally Posted by brianwspencer
This is begging for a picture of Kanye interrupting Zenyatta.

"Yo, Zenyatta, I'm happy for you and Imma let you finish but Beyonce had one of the best rides by Mike Smith of all time."

Quote:

Originally Posted by miraja2
The reason is because some people have elevated the Breeders' Cup to an absolutely absurd status. These people seem to believe that the BCC counts for more than the Oaks, Preakness, Haskell, and Woodward put together simply because somebody put the idiotic title "World Championships" after one particular weekend of racing. It is a complete farce.

Ah but it was a farce on polytrack. Surely as compared to other farces in American racing, those on dirt take precedent. ;)

RolloTomasi 11-15-2009 03:44 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by 2Hot4TV
Zenyatta is a closer that managed to retire undefeated and overcome all pace conditions that were thrown at her and finished by beating the males in the Breeders Cup Classic at 1 1/4 miles which at this point RA is suspect without getting weight.

If you're gonna compare the two, you have to play on a 2-way street.

Didn't Zenyatta get weight in the BC Classic?

freddymo 11-15-2009 03:50 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by RolloTomasi
If you're gonna compare the two, you have to play on a 2-way street.

Didn't Zenyatta get weight in the BC Classic?


She is 1250lbs how much more can a horse weigh?lol

mclem0822 11-15-2009 04:33 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Kasept
Earlier in the week I had the temerity of suggesting that there is no debate possible regarding HOY. Here's Thoro-Graph's Jerry Brown in a letter to the Thoroughbred Daily News again coldly pointing out the obbvious disparity between the seasons Rachel Alexandra and Zenyatta had. Particularly key in on the list of stakes wins of their collective opponents.


To the editors:

I understand that everyone is basking in the afterglow of seeing a great mare complete an undefeated career by beating males. But with all due respect to Bill Oppenheim and others, the idea that Zenyatta should get Horse Of The Year over Rachel Alexandra is just silly when you actually compare their campaigns. When the voters sit down and do that in the cold light of day, I don't believe the vote should or will be close.

This year, before the Breeders' Cup, Zenyatta started four times. All four starts were at home in California, on synthetic tracks, against small fields of locally based fillies and mares that contained a grand total of one 2009 Grade I winner, Life Is Sweet. So if you are to vote for Zenyatta for HOTY, it is strictly on the basis of the Classic. Well, that race contained exactly two horses that had won Grade Is over synthetic this year (Einstein and Richard's Kid), some grass horses, and some dirt horses, which are demonstrably completely out of their element over Pro-Ride (see the last two years of results of main track Breeders' Cup races). Zenyatta beat them at her game, a game she is very good at. She's good on dirt, too, as she proved last year at Oaklawn--but most dirt horses don't handle Pro-Ride, which is basically grass, so she had a big advantage last Saturday.

Meanwhile, earlier this year, while Zenyatta was beating up Anabaas Creation, Lethal Heat, Briecat, Allicansayiswow and Dawn After Dawn, who between them have won two overnight stakes (and no graded ones) this year, this is what Rachel was doing:

• Racing eight times, at seven different tracks, winning them all.

• Beating colts three times in Grade I races, and beating older males AS NOT JUST A FILLY, BUT A THREE-YEAR-OLD.

• Beating the horses that in 2009 won the Kentucky Derby, Belmont, Travers, Jockey Club Gold Cup, Test, Stephen Foster, Whitney, New Orleans Handicap, Riva Ridge, Tom Fool, Acorn, Arkansas Derby, Chilukki and Oaklawn Handicap -- most of those horses males -- and doing it in every case over dirt, the surface where those horses won their stakes.

• And oh yeah, winning this country's premiere race for three-year-old fillies by 20 lengths. Imagine if a colt won the Derby by 20. Imagine anyone winning a GI by 20. They make HBO movies about that kind of thing.

None of this is to be taken as a knock on Zenyatta; she's a great mare. But she just wasn't asked to do very much this year, while Rachel had arguably the greatest campaign any filly has ever had, at the end of which Rachel's connections had the good sense not to run her on (effectively) turf, against a specialist on that surface.

By the way, since it's what I do-- best race vs. best race, on Thoro-Graph figures, Rachel is about six lengths faster than Zenyatta at a mile and an eighth. That's at level weights, and aside from Rachel being two years younger.

Jerry Brown
President, Thoro-Graph Inc

:tro: Outstanding letter from JB, it's an open and shut case here. As much as we all respect Zenyatta's performance, Rachel's campaign was one that we may never see in the history of this sport again. HOY by plenty folks.

brianwspencer 11-15-2009 04:43 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Merlinsky
Seriously? Joe Drape's NY Times Counterpoint about HOY lists her floppy eared love of running as one of two things to think about when considering the big beautiful Zenyatta. I can give several things in Rachel's favor before I get to the 'she's so pretty' argument. Not that it doesn't enrapture me to behold Zenyatta, but c'mon. When is that a qualification for HOY? This is not Westminster Best in Show judging. Who wants it more and struts the best is not what HOY is about.

Funny you mention that, because the first person I told about the NY Times thing, I was laughing about that when explaining it.

I was like "remember how I explained how one camp wants to talk about races and stats, and the other wants to talk about crying and feeling good inside, yea....'and she just has genuine star power,' is one of the things allegedly in her corner for HOY."

It's like the further we get into the "debate," the more crazy the diversions become. In a couple weeks, having exhausted anything bordering on a reasonable analysis, people will be talking about how Rachel's unwillingness to dance before the race to entertain the fans is a serious concern when thinking about HOY voting.

Sightseek 11-15-2009 05:06 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by brianwspencer
Funny you mention that, because the first person I told about the NY Times thing, I was laughing about that when explaining it.

I was like "remember how I explained how one camp wants to talk about races and stats, and the other wants to talk about crying and feeling good inside, yea....'and she just has genuine star power,' is one of the things allegedly in her corner for HOY."

It's like the further we get into the "debate," the more crazy the diversions become. In a couple weeks, having exhausted anything bordering on a reasonable analysis, people will be talking about how Rachel's unwillingness to dance before the race to entertain the fans is a serious concern when thinking about HOY voting.

Rachel has her own kind of dance - with devastating results (go to 1:44):

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Z8kRDFNFIl8

Merlinsky 11-15-2009 05:21 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Sightseek
Rachel has her own kind of dance - with devastating results (go to 1:44):

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Z8kRDFNFIl8

Just got through watching that race. No way to avoid having to pick your jaw up off the floor after that one.

10 pnt move up 11-15-2009 05:22 PM

Here are the grade 1/2 races that the horses Zenyatta has beaten won this year since JB says Zenyatta beat up on Anashits creation, the favorite argument to why Zenyatta just is a notch below

Breeders Cup Distaff
Kentucky Derby
Travers
Santa Anita Derby
Sham Stakes
Jockey Club Gold Cup
Irish Champion Stakes
Pacific Classic
Arlignton Million
Man O War
Manhatten
Kilroe
Santa Anita Handicap
Clark
Queen Elizibeth
Sussex Stakes
Super Derby
Amersterdam
Fountain of Youth
Florida Derby
Hawthorne Gold Cup
El Encino
La Canada
Santa Margarita

brianwspencer 11-15-2009 05:32 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Sightseek
Rachel has her own kind of dance - with devastating results (go to 1:44):

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Z8kRDFNFIl8

Oh wow. Wow. That video is awesome.

brianwspencer 11-15-2009 05:36 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by 10 pnt move up
Here are the grade 1/2 races that the horses Zenyatta has beaten won this year since JB says Zenyatta beat up on Anashits creation, the favorite argument to why Zenyatta just is a notch below
Breeders Cup Distaff
Kentucky Derby
Travers
Santa Anita Derby
Sham Stakes
Jockey Club Gold Cup
Irish Champion Stakes
Pacific Classic
Arlignton Million
Man O War
Manhatten
Kilroe
Santa Anita Handicap
Clark
Queen Elizibeth
Sussex Stakes
Super Derby
Amersterdam
Fountain of Youth
Florida Derby
Hawthorne Gold Cup
El Encino
La Canada
Santa Margarita

Wow. That's a terribly inaccurate list.

Interesting that you include stakes that Quality Road won, Sea the Stars won, that horses won in years past while claiming that it was this year, a Grade III already disqualified by the previous problem, and a race that hasn't even been run yet in 2009.

2Hot4TV 11-15-2009 06:11 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by RolloTomasi
If you're gonna compare the two, you have to play on a 2-way street.

Didn't Zenyatta get weight in the BC Classic?

1 pound and she didn't need it. I beleive RA got 6 or 9 pounds which she needed to hold on.

NTamm1215 11-15-2009 06:14 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by 2Hot4TV
1 pound and she didn't need it. I beleive RA got 6 or 9 pounds which she needed to hold on.

Zenyatta was in receipt of three pounds from Gio Ponti and the other males.

NT

Danzig 11-15-2009 06:15 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by 10 pnt move up
Here are the grade 1/2 races that the horses Zenyatta has beaten won this year since JB says Zenyatta beat up on Anashits creation, the favorite argument to why Zenyatta just is a notch below

Breeders Cup Distaff
Kentucky Derby
Travers
Santa Anita Derby
Sham Stakes
Jockey Club Gold Cup
Irish Champion Stakes
Pacific Classic
Arlignton Million
Man O War
Manhatten
Kilroe
Santa Anita Handicap
Clark
Queen Elizibeth
Sussex Stakes
Super Derby
Amersterdam
Fountain of Youth
Florida Derby
Hawthorne Gold Cup
El Encino
La Canada
Santa Margarita


for starters, exactly when did zenyatta face pioneerof the nile, or the pamplemousse? and i guess it's the clark brian was asking about, since there is no '09 winner as yet.

10 pnt move up 11-15-2009 06:17 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Danzig
for starters, exactly when did zenyatta face pioneerof the nile, or the pamplemousse? and i guess it's the clark brian was asking about, since there is no '09 winner as yet.

sorry, included Colonal Johns three year old wins, guess they did not happen in Brown's argument.

Danzig 11-15-2009 06:20 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by 10 pnt move up
sorry, included Colonal Johns three year old wins, guess they did not happen in Brown's argument.


not sure what jerry brown has to do with your post about winners this year that zenyatta faced in the classic. or what the winner of the irish championship has to do with it either, since sea the stars didn't come to the bc this year.

brianwspencer 11-15-2009 06:20 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Danzig
for starters, exactly when did zenyatta face pioneerof the nile, or the pamplemousse? and i guess it's the clark brian was asking about, since there is no '09 winner as yet.

Actually 7 of those 24 listed are no good -- totally shoddy work, and yet another "throw it at the wall and see what sticks/who is paying attention" type argument.

But she still got that dirty head past Anabaa's Creation. And that counts for something as the winner of.....a second-level allowance.

Danzig 11-15-2009 06:23 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by brianwspencer
Actually 7 of those 24 listed are no good -- totally shoddy work, and yet another "throw it at the wall and see what sticks/who is paying attention" type argument.

But she still got that dirty head past Anabaa's Creation. And that counts for something as the winner of.....a second-level allowance.



yeah, that's why i said for starters...i knew there were more than the ones i mentioned.

brianwspencer 11-15-2009 06:26 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Danzig
yeah, that's why i said for starters...i knew there were more than the ones i mentioned.

I did the dirty work for you :D

And the hilarious thing is that I don't even dislike Zenyatta. I think she's awesome. I think Rachel earned this fair and square and accomplished significantly more -- and it's telling that those arguing in favor of that use history, races, performances, and analysis to make their case while those arguing against it are just trying to find something, ANYTHING that comes close to working...and that's either emotion (which should have nothing to do with it) or half-truths, or in the case of that clusterf*ck of a post above about the GI/GII winners above, a 70% truth, if rounding up.

Danzig 11-15-2009 06:31 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by brianwspencer
I did the dirty work for you :D

And the hilarious thing is that I don't even dislike Zenyatta. I think she's awesome. I think Rachel earned this fair and square and accomplished significantly more -- and it's telling that those arguing in favor of that use history, races, performances, and analysis to make their case while those arguing against it are just trying to find something, ANYTHING that comes close to working...and that's either emotion (which should have nothing to do with it) or half-truths, or in the case of that clusterf*ck of a post above about the GI/GII winners above, a 70% truth, if rounding up.


yeah, me too.

Antitrust32 11-15-2009 06:55 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Sightseek
This is a little blurb from Oppenheim in the TDN (apologies for the strange print, it does that when you copy off a pdf) and I think he fails to realize that most of the people who watch the Breeder's Cup are existing fans of racing - whereas any Triple Crown race (Preakness) is watched by more people who we are trying to reach:

HORSE OF THE YEAR: Interesting comments, and
one thing they really highlight is the question: what are
the criteria for Horse of the Year? Those of us with
votes will be fascinated to refresh our memories when
the NTRA directive on the subject is issued to Eclipse
voters. But here=s a thought--it=s not necessarily about
the fastest horse of the year, or even the horse with
the best form. I=m not for Zenyatta strictly because she
won the GI Breeders= Cup Classic, beating colts and
breaking Personal Ensign=s unbeaten record in the process.
I=m for Zenyatta just as much because, in a sport
that has been threatening to sink without trace from
American public consciousness following Barbaro=s horrible
breakdown in the 2006 GI Preakness, and Eight
Belles=s horrible breakdown after finishing second in the
2008 GI Kentucky Derby, Zenyatta=s win over the colts
in the Breeders= Cup Classic actually got some ink, and
restored a modicum of respectability to our sport in the
wider public eye. She achieved more than even Rachel
did in that hugely important sphere--those Americans
who have only the mildest of interest in whether horse
racing continues to exist in this country or not.
That=s
why--unless they tell me that=s not a valid criterion--she
gets my vote.


lol! I guess nobody watched the Preakness? haha. what an argument!

Smooth Operator 11-15-2009 07:08 PM

Read this Brown piece again … and it still makes no sense.

Face it, Jerry … the 3-year-old colts were mediocre, at best, this year … and the sad fact is … some of them are probably better than the older mules she (barely) hung on to beat in the Woodward.

Wasn't exactly like she was getting the best of a Bernardini … or a Mineshaft … out there.


The REAL challenge for the filly was coming out to the coast and taking on the undefeated, Eclipse-award-winning Breeders' Cup champion mare … and she was a NO SHOW.

No one in their right mind could vote for her over Z, in my opinion … but that's the problem … too many of these voters are out of their minds.

Take 2004, for instance … a significant number of them actually cast their ballots for SJ as HotY.

This was pure insanity when you had a brilliant older horse which not only proved that he was the fastest sprinter in the country … but the fastest router, as well.

arizonadave 11-15-2009 07:48 PM

Even though it cant happen, but i feel Gio Ponti is as good as these two. He is a champ on the Turf and tried to be on the dirt, not his surface. Could there be another horse that we are overlooking or is it a slam dunk between these two. Has either one of these fillies ran on the Turf? Just a thought.

RolloTomasi 11-15-2009 09:19 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by 2Hot4TV
1 pound and she didn't need it. I beleive RA got 6 or 9 pounds which she needed to hold on.

They both won.

How are you certain that the weight played an issue in either race?

Maybe I'm missing the significance of weight. Are they like the Lifelines used on "Who Wants To Be A Millionaire"?

Was Calvin Borel allowed to pull out 8 1lb pieces of lead from his saddle and chuck them at Macho Again as he closed the gap?

I better check the replay.

westcoastinvader 11-15-2009 10:13 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Danzig
yeah, me too.

Nice arguments and discussions.

I'm impatient.

Anyone who doesn't think Zenyatta deserves Horse of the Year is an ignorant slut.

philcski 11-15-2009 11:23 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by 10 pnt move up
Here are the grade 1/2 races that the horses Zenyatta has beaten won this year since JB says Zenyatta beat up on Anashits creation, the favorite argument to why Zenyatta just is a notch below

Breeders Cup Distaff
Kentucky Derby
Travers
Santa Anita Derby no
Sham Stakes no
Jockey Club Gold Cup
Irish Champion Stakes no
Pacific Classic
Arlignton Million
Man O War
Manhatten
Kilroe
Santa Anita Handicap
Clark no
Queen Elizibeth
Sussex Stakes
Super Derby
Amersterdam no
Fountain of Youth no
Florida Derby no
Hawthorne Gold Cup
El Encino
La Canada
Santa Margarita

...

Kasept 11-16-2009 05:32 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by 2Hot4TV
1 pound and she didn't need it. I beleive RA got 6 or 9 pounds which she needed to hold on.

Is this a suggestion that as a 3 year old filly, Rachel Alexandra beating elder males is somehow diminished by the weight scale? The Woodward is WFA... weight for age, the international scale of equine competition. Elders are assigned 126 pounds; 3yo's 121; females get a 3# allowance. Hence, as a 3yo female, Rachel Alexandra carried 118 while the 7 elder males carried 126. This is the scale of weight. A three year old filly facing elder males, a challenge so outlandish that it more or less hadn't been done in this country in 100+ years, is entitled to the allowance.

Some clarity on Weight for Age:

Weight for Age (WFA) is a term in Thoroughbred horse racing which is one of the conditions for a race. It means that a horse will carry a set weight in accordance with the Weight for Age Scale. This weight varies depending on the horse’s age, its sex, the race distance and the month of the year. Weight for age races are usually Group 1 races, races of the highest quality.

WFA is a method of trying to equal out the physical progress which the average thoroughbred racehorse makes as it matures. The thoroughbred matures extremely quickly compared to the human being. By the age of two the horse has achieved 95% of its mature height and weight, and by the end of its third year it will be fully mature. To allow for this variation in maturity in the context of racing, it is necessary to express it as a function of the weight a horse will carry in a race. It is also necessary to take into account the race distance because stamina comes with maturity, and younger horses are at a greater disadvantage the further they have to run. If no allowance was made, a mature older horse would always beat a younger one.

citycat 11-16-2009 08:04 AM

Good read in the Bloodhorse on the subject by Steve Haskins. Interesting in that the bloodhorse poll is running almost exactly opposite the NY Times poll with about 60% Zenyatta

Roc525 11-16-2009 08:41 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by arizonadave
Even though it cant happen, but i feel Gio Ponti is as good as these two. He is a champ on the Turf and tried to be on the dirt, not his surface. Could there be another horse that we are overlooking or is it a slam dunk between these two. Has either one of these fillies ran on the Turf? Just a thought.

Gio is a great horse, but he didn't try to do anything on a dirt surface this year.


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