there is 1 barn in ky that has seen all the works this week and the most impressive horse by far in their opinion is POTN

There aren't many horses trained by Bob Baffert that don't look very good in the morning.

I was talking about POTN

Only a bad trip/traffic problems would prevent I Want Revenge from winning. Hold me Back for the place spot
I would certainly worry about WestSide Bernie, peaking at the right time.

And my boyfriend says ADVICE

Is your boyfriend, does he happen to be a Point Given or a Giant's Causeway fan?

Essentially that is what I saw, Dettori intentionally kept him off the rail on the backside, there was a horse that was inside of him on the backside, when he took the lead he naturally drifted closer to the rail but notice Dettori didn't nail him to the rail. The 1st race of the day a horse won coming down towards the inside middle of the track and in the sprint the horse that won was also in the same area though as pointed out earlier it was on a straight course. The track was obviously favouring speed that night but in my opinion the term 'golden rail' is misleading. That term tells me there was an unfair advantage to only one part of the track which I didn't see being the case.

Hes always liked the Gulch horses.

LOL, I guess he likes him a little bit.

I think you can say that about a number of horses in here. Trouble is you have an inexperienced joc (if you question this look at how he finished up the Gotham) prone to getting overly excited and a horse that will be a handful if the impressions of folks on the track are any indication. He has run huge on the dirt. But he has never faced 100k+ fans, 20 horses and all the hoopla.

What all that means is that a bad trip/traffic is far more possible. I am not sure yet who I think can win, but it will be 3 or 4 that will be in play and IWR will have to beat me. Expecially since he is likely to get bet down by post time.

I really need somebody to explain to me how or why he isn't the overwhelming favorite to win this race. In my opinion, his last two starts are both better than any race any other horse in the field has ever run. His workout two days ago over the track was ultra-sharp, he has a good post position, he has tactical speed, has demonstrated that he can handle dirt, etc. etc. etc.

To me he is clearly the best horse coming into the race. Obviously any number of things could happen in a 20-horse race, and I understand a desire to try to beat a favorite. But if that favorite is much the best and is something like 7/2.....I'm not sure it makes much sense to pass that up.

but..but...the Sheeeeets say...

I will offer an explanation. IWR's last two races were very good. But what did he beat? In the two NY races combined, he beat two horses with any graded stakes earnings. One other has come back to win, the rest are still eligible for non-winners of 1 allowance races. His win in the Wood was so visually impressive because of the trouble he overcame that it is easy to overlook what he beat that day.

IWR also has twice lost to POTN who incidently happens to have a four race win streak coming in. The dirt is the wildcard. We know IWR loves it. We can't say for sure that POTN will. However, from all accounts he has trained wonderfully over it. I see no reason that he won't continue his winning ways saturday.

Paul

He has trained well over it but has yet to have that same dirt kicked in his face

That is the big problem I got with POTN, either gonna have dirt or mud in his face. Its not like Cali where he gets plastic bouncing off him

Which is why I will get a square price on him. Look, every horse in the race has question marks. None have ever run this far, none have ever faced 20 horse fields, etc.

If IWR had stayed in California, you by the same logic would be writing him off as well. Yet we all know he handled the dirt kickback just fine. Same with Papa Clem. I will take my chances with a horse who hasn't lost this year, who has one of the top jockey/trainer combos possible, and one who will offer serious value as the fifth choice.

Paul

I really think IWR is the horse to beat. He has everything going for him. Somehow I am not a big Pioneer fan, a horse that beat IWR twice in Cal. I think he is a bit of head case, the way he was pulling Gomez in the SA Derby. I would not discount Musket Man, who is 5 for 6. Hold Me Back doesn't seem to have the speed figures but Giant's Causeways can run on anything & I liked the way he was closing in the BG, should cherish the extra distance.

Soooo

As of this moment, I like IWR, Hold Me back, Musket Man & POTN.
The other dangerous horse is Dunkirk.
Jeez ....5 horses! I'm trying to narrow it down. But if one of those 5 doesn't win, I'll be surprised.

As far as Talamo. I follow Cal racing every day. He is one of the best. I wouldn't worry about his inexperience.

His sire is 3-for-117 with 1st time turfers - and his dam couldn't outrun a goat on turf when she raced here - and turf and synthetic are pretty much the same thing -- so ... while IWR utterly stinks on synthetic tracks - I would have considered IWR the best pedigree projection to improve on dirt of the synthetic horses but he would only have been my longshot flyer for underneath in a race where I would have had knocks on everything.

I have a big problem with POTN, and it has nothing to do with synthetics versus dirt.

He's too slow.

handles synthetic tracks fine
 

:rolleyes:

could it be he just prefers races where rivals don't quicken in the final 16ths??

Have can you say that POTN is a "synth specialist" and yet say IWR "stinks" on synth when they were only a nose apart in the CashCall Futurity?

Goes to show how much faster IWR is...he stinks and still came up just that short against a specialist. Curlin "stunk on turf while finishing second in a GI to a BC Turf winner.:D

Well, he beat West Side Bernie who I think is a pretty good colt. West Side Bernie ran pretty good races in both the Holy Bull and the Wood, and if he didn't have the unfortunate combination of the #1 post and Stewart Elliot on his back, I think he would be a serious contender here to hit the board. Actually, if he is somehow able to get a good trip despite those two very daunting obstacles, I could still see him getting a share.
Beating WSB as easily as he did in the Wood, despite a horrible trip, is one of the things that most impresses me about IWR.

The "who did he beat?" stuff is my favorite.

Terrain beat Pioneerof The Nile in there two synhtetic track meetings - one at Keeneland in the Futurity and the other in the BC Juvenile.

But Terrain didn't win either of these races so that is not excatly a fair comparison.

Paul

They just showed the odds on Twinspires, Fresian Fire is 4-1

I didn't say POTN was a confirmed synth specialist .. though my hunch is he will likely be proven one.

Go watch IWR's 3rd to POTN and PC in the Pro-Ride race ... it was terrible.

The Pampelmousse and a healthy Square Eddie before being rushed back insanely from a fracture are the good synthetic track horses.

i would include hold me back. he may not turn out a good one, but he's definitely a syn specialist.

It's a fair comparison because he has the same closing style - and if anything Terrain had the tougher trip in both races.

It's the same if two speed horses hooked up - and one beat the other both times.

The difference was Bill Mott trained Pioneerof The Nile as a 2yo - and Mott is a terrible trainer of 2yo's.

POTN was a laughing stock with Mott.

if you watch the CaschCall where IWR ran well on synth vs. the specialist, and then continue in sequence to the Robert B Lewis you should notice a few things.
1. IWR is now the clear rival of POTN in both wagering and race tactics
2. Talamo makes 1st run in the Robert Lewis in an attempt to beat POTN(as a reaction to being unable to pass POTN when both quickened in the CashCall)
3. IWR runs a 23.4? 6f-8f quarter before slowing to a 6.4? final 16th (forgive me for not calculating these exactly once again)...

Horses don't run 23.4s if they are supposedly spinning their wheels.

Another horse that Bill Mott trained at 2 (and still does) that improved bigtime from age 2 to age 3

Yeah - it's a very good idea to look at naked closing fractions of Pro-Ride races.

I hate to break it to you - but there was nothing outstanding about IWR's come home time that race. The come-home times at that track were lightning fast.

not the come-home time (which he slowed, which was my point)
the 6-8furlong section


If you can't see that 23.4 for the 6f-8f portion of a 8.5furlong race over the Santa Anita course is very good, there is something wrong.

the horse slowed after being asked for a longer drive
The reason he was asked for a longer drive was because he lost the CashCall directly because he couldn't quicken with POTN
The result of being asked for a longer drive was he weakened.

there was no spinning of wheels. There was no "didn't handle the surface"
He ran a top class race in the CashCall , then ran a top effort but was ASKED TO DO MORE in the robert lewis.

In the Gotham and Wood there were no horses quickening in the final 16ths. IWR simply had to continue on with his relentless one paced style.
The style itself is good enough to win the derby.

The question will be whether my horse will run him down in the stretch when he begins to slightly weaken as was shown in the Robert Lewis.

Then the experts can say IWR was spinning his wheels in the slop.

Yes, yes, yes. Very well said.

Exactly.

--Dunbar

Other than the Sam Davis has General Quarters done anything on the dirt??

What does everyone make of the fact that Garrett Gomez has decided to ride POTN over Dunkirk? That concerns me a bit, although I like Dunkirk.

Everyone is down on Friesan Fire on here, it seems, but I've got to say I like the horse. The 7 week lay-off scares me a bit, but I think I'm going to put FF on top here.

Longshots that I'll throw in the exotics -- Musket Man and Mr. Hot Stuff.

The maiden win, and then a a couple average efforts at Churchill, and then strong races in the Inaugural, Pasco, and Tampa Derby.

I wouldnt call a 5th in the Tampa Derby Strong!!! LOL

well, he did encoun


wait a minute... , you're tjfla, the same guy who asked the General Quarters question.

rhetorical stuff always gets me, sorry