Like seven or eight of the horses coming into the Derby Dollar Bill's year had a race or two that made them look like friggin beasts.

I realize a lot of them weren't the type who figured to enjoy a fast paced 10 furlong race .. but the year was loaded to the gills with talented sharp horses.

I don't think it's debatable at all. That was the most impressive group coming into the Derby.

Giacomo had all the wiseguy elements - he just wasn't bet.

Noble Causeway was without a doubt the wiseguy horse in that field.

I disagree completely. That race fell apart. There was nothing wiseguy about that horse...A wiseguy horse is bet.

Tell me about it. I LOVED Congaree in that race. He just wasn't quite up for 10F with that crazy pace.

True, bad trips, working well, etc. but honestly the ONLY person- anywhere- that I heard talking him up was Rudolph, and I went to that Derby (zero chatter on track. All Noble Causeway.) I think a qualification of being a wise guy horse is actually getting bet.

I believe our boy Kasept talked him up - as well as Closing Argument - in his immediate pre-Derby selections.

The local "experts" are all over Desert Party. Asher has him winning and Byrne has him coming in 2nd.

He was basically viewed by many as the most likely horse to win the Derby coming into that years 3yo season.

He was a lightly raced horse with a strong closing 2nd to that years 2yo champion - while beating that years BC Juvenile winner in his final 2yo start.

He was five wide on both turns against a speed biased track and still ran a 98 Beyer in the Sham.

He was 2nd in the stakes record San Felipe run over an INSANELY fast track that was carrying speed.

And he was 4th in the merry-go-round like Santa Anita Derby that was a total slow early-fast late race shape.

Apparently you aren't understanding the definition of a wise guy horse...Revisionist history doesn't help your argument. 50-1 doesn't make a wise guy horse ever. Someone will always make a case for all 20 horses in a field. It doesn't mean anything. Buzz creates wise guy horses. And Giacomo had the buzz of crickets....some said include in a super. And that's that.

I picked him to win that years Derby - posted it on boards- and there are many here who remember it.

The only difference between him and Dollar Bill is that Dollar Bill was 6/1 and he was 50/1 - and Dollar Bill was running against 7 or 8 horses with more than one vastly superior race while Giacomo was running against 2 or 3 horses with only a single vastly superior race.

OMG. Golfclap....B/c you picked the horse doesn't make him a wiseguy pick. It makes him a DrugS pick....Where am I, your posts usually make more sense than those in this thread.

I never said he was a wiseguy horse.

I said he has all the elements of a wiseguy horse - like a Dollar Bill - but he just wasn't bet.

Old Yahoo Group Derby Trailers had at least a heads up about his potetial...
http://www.derbytrail.com/wp/?p=52

Steve, would you say that Dennis Of Cork was the wise guy horse last year? And he ran well....Sometimes they run well, sometimes they don't.

Denis of Cork had wiseguy elements ... a better than looked off the board finish in the merry go round like Illi Derby - but he was 27/1.

He wasn't bet either.

Bzzzz. 27-1 is bet in the Derby. 50-1 is not. Plus, BB took a lot of money in the win spot. DOC was quite a bit different in the ex and tri pools if you ask me.

Point Determined? I can't remember what he went off at, but I thought it was low.

He was even 'wise guy-ish' before he got in. People were saying, "if only Denis of Cork could get in, he'd have a big shot'. It was actually funny because once he got in, people then went shopping for a new wiseguy horse as if they had let the secret out and everyone was going to be betting Denis of Cork.

Stereotypical 'wise guy' horse is Saarland, who was always closing at shorter distances but hadn't won a prep race. Beautiful looking horse with a top-quality pedigree for a 10f who had won the Remsen at 2, which is rapidly becoming the kiss of death, so to speak. Actually started favorite in the Derby from all the wise-guy talk.

Big Truck was 28/1 off of an 11th place finish in the Blue Grass.

Z Fortune was 19/1 - even though he was defeated in 3 straight Derby preps in Arkansas and Louisianna.

His ordinal rank in the wagering was pretty much in line with his proven ability. I'd say last year really lacked a wiseguy horse, unless you want to say Pyro was somewhat that type (finishing 2nd to last in his final prep and still going off single digits.)

He was 9/1 ... the slug I bet that year was A P Warrior.

They had a brilliant stretch battle in the Affirmed Handicap next out.

Let me make sure I have the correct defintion of "wise guy" horse.

It's a horse without a pretty form in relation to the rest of the field who is being backed on the basis of better than looked races or projection for future improvement?

Wise guy horse to me is the horse or horses that have been largely left in that middle group of harder to envision possible winners (15-1 or more) coming up to Derby Week, that suddenly get noticed by media because they have a flashy move, look particularly terrific physically, etc.

That group of candidates moving towards Monday are the Godolphins, Square Eddie, Chocolate Candy, Hold Me Back and Musket Man.

That's totally different than my definition.

I guess the term means different things to different people.

I agree with Steve. The "chatter" horse.

I expect Desert Party and Dunkirk to be the two most likely to impress on looks.

I Want Revenge's start in the Wood will probably be shown on tv a whole bunch of times.

I guess Desert Party would be my wiseguy horse pick on both definitions because IWR and Dunkirk have the naked form to take a lot of money.

DP's 2yo figures are very slow - and his defeat at the hands of Regal Ransom was better than looked.

And being a $2 million+ two year old - it's a cinch he both looks great and works out well. So he'll wow the people there.

His sire has already sired a Derby winner. His dam sire was 2nd in the BC Classic at Churchill.

Same way I see the term.


there is also the win pool wise guy horse - When you see the actual odds, and a horse who was supposed to be a 4th choice is second choice in the betting etc...

Maybe Dollar Bill wasn't a wiseguy horse in that case ... although I guess it's possible he could have looked good the week of the race and everything like that.

The stretch trouble he had in his 4th place finish behind Fifty Stars was shown over and over on tv. And the drubbing he took in the Blue Grass by Millenium Wind was rightly disregarded by all the commentators because of the track playing against him.

He would seem like the all-time classic example by my definition.

Being the 2nd choice - and a shorter price than horses like Congaree, Monarchos, Balto Star etc etc off of a 4th to Fifty Stars and a distant 3rd to Millennium Wind - and after taking a total beating in the BC Juvenile over that track the prior year.

He is the all-time classic example to me as well. Usually the chatter starts with workouts or looks but in his case it was trips discussion (as you said, they showed it over and over on tv). I have no idea what he looked like that week- it was really before live blogging, twitter coverage, whatever gave you an update on the color and consistency of each horses' dumps.

Basically my definition is "what are his odds relative to the actual ability he's shown" and a wiseguy horse would be one that gets bet down from say 25-1 to at or under 10-1.

I think Borrego is a good example of a wise guy horse.

For what it's worth, the OP's (thread starter's) definition of a wise guy horse was, "the horse for the Derby that gets a lot of action that we aren't thinking about right now". Obviously everyone's definition is different. I'll stick with Desert Party.

I remember being conflicted as to if I would bet Borrego or The Cliff's Edge that year.

Borrego was 2nd by just 1.5 lengths to Smarty Jones in the Ark Derby - and The Cliff's Edge had ran down Lion Heart over Kee's speed track ... I actually thought both of them were very generous prices and not taking money.

Tapit at 6/1 and Master David at 10/1 out of that very slow 98 Beyer Wood Memorial were the two overbet that year. Borrego was 14/1 off of running a 107 Beyer in his last race.

I bet Borrego and he didn't run his race till the JCGold Cup years later.

He won the Pacific Classic with a big pace setup the start before the Jockey Club Gold Cup ... but yeah, he really sucked for a long while after his good 2nd in the Ark Derby.

The Cliff's Edge sucked pretty bad after beating Lion Heart in the Blue Grass as well.

2004: I vote Master David @ 10-1.

for posterity, here's what I'll vote for this millenium:
2008: ? Pyro... I guess... but the field was so bad somebody had to take action
2007: Any Given Saturday (although his odds were still reasonable)
2006: Point Determined (unquestionably)
2005: Noble Causeway (unquestionably)
2004: Master David (unquestionably)
2003: Atswhatimtalkinbout (although debatable)
2002: Saarland
2001: Dollar Bill (unquestionably)
2000: ? tough call. don't really have one to offer

He went off at fair odds though. 17-1, or the 7th (?) choice, seemed reasonable to me. He was a good runner up to the favorite in his final prep- one could argue he should have been lower.

I thought he went off at 14-1

Mid teens, I can't remember exactly off the top of my head.

I'm not going to start it, but a thread on "Derby Busts" would yield some interesting memories. Ie. Bellamy Road, Bandini...ect