Dude....the same guy had Brother Keith at # 5. At least Bittle Road won races on grass, although last time I checked the Kentucky Derby was run on dirt.

I don't play the Derby futures, I think they are a horrendous bet when you take into consideration risk vs reward. Unless you are getting huge odds (25-1 or more) imho, they are a sucker bet.

Derby Super plus a couple flyers....

Desert Party
Freisan Fire
I Want Revenge
POTN

Hold Me Back
Win Willy
Square Eddie

Garcia on Regal Ransom & Dominguez on Desert Party...

I think the Godolphin jockey assignments are right on.

Not sure if people realize it, but the final time of the UAE Derby was really around 1:48 not the 1:50 it is listed at on the PPs. The track that day brought the front-runners home like no other during the 21 days of racing in Dubai this year, a product of four days of occasional rains and the track being sealed otherwise. The four lengths that Desert Party made up in the race are just about the most of anyone the entire day...if not the most.

Frankie was overly confident on Desert Party...that is practically undeniable.

Both Desert Party and Regal Ransom accomplished their tasks without race day medication and routinely dispatched with older horses (Southern Hemisphere 3YO).

I think both of them have a solid chance.

I think Desert Party has a shot in the derby. But to cite the fact that he and Regal Ransom beat "older horses" in the UAE Derby seems a little absurd.

You also add in the fact that...

http://www.nytimes.com/1998/10/09/ny...o-5-years.html

now scroll to breeder...

http://www.kentuckyderby.com/2009/ra...ty/connections


and you have the makings of a heartwarming derby story.

Here is some detail on what the guy did for GTech..

http://money.cnn.com/magazines/fortu...8202/index.htm

His former boss, Guy Snowden, is also a horse breeder. D'awesome.

but you're forgetting the 'lack of raceday medication'. :) had the two lost, the fact they lost to older would have been cited. if you like them, you'll justify it. if you don't, it's not a big deal. they seem decent horses-my lack of interest is due to the fact that their approach to the derby has not had past success.

Cheaters always win. Especially in this game.

Its quite an achievement for 3 year olds to beat older horses this early in the season - but the "Classic" generation this year in Dubai was to put it mildly - woeful.

I think Regal Ransom has no shot at staying 10f, so Desert Party seems to be the one for me.

Please share your rationale for why Regal Ransom can't stay 10 furlongs.

Seriously? Southern Hemisphere 3YO have romped in Dubai the last few years, including Asiatic Boy, Honour Devil, Royal Vintage, etc. They took a handful of chances throughout the campaign...but Desert Party and Regal Ransom handled them well throughout three races.

Granted, they were lightly raced (but everyone is) - but the age and maturity factor plays a role. I just don't think there is anything absurd about that particular fact.

In a year when the US contingent is better than it has been in years, people are seriously considering the towelhead horses? NOW?

Of course, if you speak to Smith's ex-wife, she has more of an emotional story about breeding Desert Party, which she did with her then-husband.

Please feel free to not consider them. I'll be happy with a higher price.

I hope that's your head the gun is pointing at

I can understand your concern based on previous tries - but comparing these two to ANY previous Godolphin Derby horses is a mistake, in my opinion.

The 3YO races in Dubai have increased in quality substantially the last five years through the Carnival, and even more so the past three years with a major influx of horses from the Southern Hemisphere.

If Desert Party and Regal Ransom lost to the older horses in their first or second starts, using age as an excuse is possible, but they handled them well through three consecutive, finishing 15 in front of Soy Libriano in the UAE Derby, an older SH 3YO.

It should be viewed as undeniable that the two horses Godolphin will have in the Derby are their best chances ever, and if you don't believe it, just ask them.

Every year people come up excuses for these clowns pissing away a billion dollars with no results. This year will be no different I see.

A $0.00 ROI on the Dubai route to the Derby might just signify something, you know.

Any interest in reviewing the credentials on the horses who have done it before? Going from Dubai to the Derby that is. The list isn't exactly stellar, and it hasn't happened since 2002, when Essence of Dubai went.

It's absurd because the SH 3yos they beat aren't any good. . .

There's also a $0 ROI in the Derby on horses who made their last start on a synthetic surface in California, a $0 ROI on Todd Pletcher trainees, a $0 ROI on Jeff Mullins trainees, a $0 ROI on Larry Jones trainees and La Derby winners dating back to 1996, and a $0 ROI on Ill Derby winners since 2002.

I've now tossed Pioneerof the Nile, Chocolate Candy, Mr. Hot Stuff, Dunkirk, Advice, I Want Revenge, Friesan Fire, and Musket Man using your logic.

The Derby's a really tough race to win.

NT

And the superstars I Want Revenge has beaten in two wins in NY were good?

It's really risky to base Derby selections on quality of competition unless you really think you have a handle on everyone in the crop.

NT

True--they ruin most of them before they can even them get back here.

I have heard this crap since the 90s on the old AOL boards, the seeming inevitability that the Sheik must prevail someday.

OK, whatever. Horses coming from overseas, anywhere, are a great angle in the Derby. Sure.

Faith-based handicapping lives!

They might not turn out to be, but I count it as six graded stakes winners or placers from the Southern Hemisphere. Which, of course, would be six more older horses than any one else in the field has beaten.

I'm not trying to offer this as a stone cold reason that either Desert Party or Regal Ransom will win the Kentucky Derby, but part of a larger picture.

Ah,

The days of such greats as Roger1807, HHLou, Claimboxx, and that dopey CFrischlin guy.

Where does it look like I'm doing that?

And WAR OSAMA!

You're making statements on quality of horses beat, which is only one step above taking the horse who ran the fastest 9 furlongs of all of the preps.

There are plenty of reasons to knock Desert Party, but I don't think saying that him beating older Southern Hemisphere 3YOs is absurd is accurate at all.
Then coming back to say that he beat nothing when all we know is that we have a handful of good 3YOs in this country is risky, as I stated.

NT

Wow, some post. Are you related to Grits?

Good luck to His Highness Sheikh Mohammed bin Rashid Al Maktoum. Not sure if this will be the year (I like both Godolphin horses along with IWR, Musket Man and General Quarters) but I agree with Pat... they both have a shot.

The problem I have with citing the SH 3yos thing is that it becomes completely irrelevant when you consider the level of those horses. I didn't say that the American also-rans were much better, although I'd probably give them an edge. To take it to an extreme: what if some 3 year-old in the derby beat a bunch of older claimers- would there be any merit in arguing in that horse's favor simply because he beat older horses? Age is irrelevant when we're talking about relatively slow/untalented also-rans. If none of them are that good, who cares if some of them were born 1/2 a year earlier or whatever?

Yeah - that was one for the scrapbook.

Do you remember that weird socially disfunctional kid that came on there back in the late 90s? What was his name? ItalianLuvGod69?

I'm sure she does.

Dude couldn't keep away from the underage girls.

Probably in prison as we speak.

No, I think he hit it big with Krispy Kreme stocks and gave up girls and sex so that he could focus on betting.

- There were major stamina doubts about him staying 9 furlongs before the Derby and I believe the track helped him stay. I dont think he can run the same type of race over 10 furlongs and last home.

Yeah...Godolphin thought he would have problems staying, Simon Crisford said such very early in the Carnival...and I totally agree that the track helped him stay.

That being said, his breeding suggests he can last.

:zz:

my father is bugging me to know where Conservative is pointed next.

Has anyone heard? It seems he wouldn't get in the derby...

they might be their best chance yet-but that doesn't mean they can do what has yet to be done either. referencing southern hemi horses as a reason to like the two from dubai doesn't exactly inspire confidence-it's not as tho there was an invasor type in the bunch, was there? obviously not, since none of them could handle six months younger competition.

of the two however, desert party imo is the one to watch. but i think the competition the two will face next wknd is far tougher than what they had in dubai.

Insert every horse in the Kentucky Derby for the first blank and their previous race locations in the second blank.