The only person who films their horse's works regularly is Susan Casner:

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=k2HabJMs-z8

Keeneland didn't post work videos this year.

I like to see videos of the works

KentuckyDerby.com will have videos of all Churchill works very soon.

How dappled was Prince Thou Art? ;)


Is it possible for a horse like PotN to work as well as he did and have an issue with the surface on race day or is there a point where the work is actually indicative? It seems like excuses from synthetic horses happen every year where we think things are gonna maybe work out and then on the day, not so much. Could it just be that they handled it just fine as their works suggested and weren't that good in the Derby on their own merit/lackthereof? Does it also matter that they soup it up for the big day versus this work where it looks like the surface just got slower over the day?

didn't curlin have some really good works over the turf?

also seem to recall hard spun had some really good works at oaklawn, and then ran very poorly in the southwest stakes. porter and jones were lavish in their praise, and then he finished fourth and they did a 180, saying he didn't like the track. that after they said he loved the track. go figure.

Chic Anderson thought Prince Thou Art looked great....until deep stretch.

To suggest that Pioneer of the Nile " answered all questions " about his ability to handle the dirt with his work today is a pretty surprising thing to do. Come on, turf horses work well on the dirt all the time, but you can only tell for certain if a horse will handle the dirt if he ( or she ) is under raceday pressures. I'm not saying he won't handle the surface.....but I'm shocked that anybody would say he is certain to after today's stroll.

I laughed, very hard!

learning how to make the julep may actually help more

surface
 

I'm not saying he won't handle the surface.....but I'm shocked that anybody would say he is certain to after today's stroll.

Thought you have been saying since January he won't handle the surface. You also said Old Fashioned would have issues when facing a real pace which he did.

Even with his string of wins wont POTN be under bet? I know that sounds crazy but he has slow syn figures that the public wont understand, has never run on dirt, and will be the subject of a drumbeat of articles saying how bad a bet he is. I would imagine he is around 6/1, now whether thats fair is subjective but I have seen this play out before.

Some of these horses in the next tier have to move up to 20 to one if the Big four are all under 8-1. Don't they. I will bet Desert Part at 20-1, not 12-1.

6:1 seems like a dramatic underlay to me....but honestly, I don't want to soil this fine thread by turning it into, yet another, anti-POTN thread.

Off Subject
 

Off Subject does anyone know if there is a typo on the Exacta Payoffs on the Kentucky Derby.com web site. Under Pool 2 it says exacta odds. Under Pool 3 it says Payoffs. I have some exacta alive. I would like to know if I get $200 in pool 2 or $400.

If I show this to John White you will have hell to pay

Thank you, let's try to keep his price as low as possible.

think it's a typo. They should be listed as payoffs.

What about Colonel John last year?--Jett

well yea, you would not take him at 30/1 but you know that was not my point. If someone likes the horse and pegs him as a Triple Crown winner then I think they are going to be surprised at his price.

MIKE WELSCH'S VIDEO COMMENTARY:
http://www.drf.com/tc/kentuckyderby/...r/clocker.html

Mike Welsch's Workout comments from Tuesday...

Pioneerof the Nile (six furlongs in 1:13.52): Any questions regarding Pioneerof the Nile's ability to adapt to dirt after racing exclusively on synthetic surfaces throughout his career should have been erased after watching him glide across the track immediately after the break. With exercise rider Joe Steiner aboard, Pioneerof the Nile showed off his long, smooth stride while going effortlessly from start to finish, cutting out a series of 12-second eighth-mile splits without urging before finishing up with good energy to the wire and around the turn. He then proceeded to gallop out strongly down the backstretch before pulling up near the three-eighths pole. The final time might have been a bit misleading because of the somewhat tiring nature of the racetrack and the fact he worked without company. But make no mistake, Pioneerof the Nile has the look of a horse coming up to the Derby in peak form.

I Want Revenge (five furlongs in 1:01.62): With jockey Joe Talamo aboard, the Wood winner broke off approximately two lengths behind stablemate Gato Go Win and finished up about a neck in front of his mate while well within himself at the wire. Completed his final furlong in a modest 12.83 before drawing away from his company and galloping out six furlongs in 1:15.25 under just very moderate urging. Appeared to be a good maintenance move and an improvement over his first local work the previous week.

Chocolate Candy (one mile in 1:42.06): Like Talamo, jockey Mike Smith flew in from California for this work, which was very important considering Chocolate Candy has never raced or even breezed over dirt. Chocolate Candy began at an even clip, posting fractions of 24.79, 49.77, and 1:14.96 for the opening quarter, half, and six furlongs, but began to labor some nearing the wire and around the turn back to where he began at the seven-furlong marker. Completed his final quarter in a moderate 27.10 before galloping out 1 1/8 miles in 1:57.23. Was a tired horse at the end but must take into account the fact he was working over a relatively deep track. Should have gotten plenty of foundation out of this move.

Flying Private (five furlongs in 1:01.20): Worked with stablemate Lord and T., who provided little opposition once turning into the stretch, at which point Flying Private, with new rider Robby Albarado aboard, left him in the dust. Completed his final quarter in 25 under mild urging before galloping out six furlongs in a modest 1:16.

Flat Out (five furlongs in 1:03.26): The only potential Derby starter to work before the break when the racetrack was on the faster side, and he actually did his best running after his work, galloping out an additional eighth in 12.53 after plodding through the final quarter of the actual drill in 25.86. Not expected to make the Derby lineup.

The weariest person by the end of next week may turn out to be Rachel Alexandra's exercise rider, who certainly had her hands full getting the Kentucky Oaks favorite around the course without knocking anybody over on Tuesday. Rachel Alexandra is a joy to watch as she goes through even a routine morning gallop, pulling her rider out of the saddle while breezing around at a lively clip with her neck bowed to the outside and obviously enjoying herself every step of the way. Can't wait to watch her final scheduled Oaks prep here on Monday morning.

I'm really starting to think RA would have a legit shot at the KY Derby.

I'm not a big Tomlinson guy, but how did they come up with such a low distance Tomlinson for Quality Road? The only other Derby Contender that I can recall with such a low rating was Medaglia D'oro at 265.

Exactly....Same thing for a dirt horse working over the poly, or an off track.

This is an interesting point, perhaps we should look at all factors and not just the one angle.

Just for what it's worth, all things considered, Colonel John's Derby wasn't all bad last year, was it?

Until a horse wins going from synth to dirt, I guess we will have these questions. Remember it wasn't too long ago where some didn't believe a horse could win the derby off just 2 preps until Street Sense did it.

Or off a five week layoff, or off fewer than four career starts, or as a NY-bred. We've been all about bustin' myths lately.

Derby myths...dosage index, 3 prep rule, 5 week train up...synth?

I'm not a Tomlinson guy ... but QR is a big horse who certainly has outrun his pedigree.

His sire was a speed sprinter and his dam would stop to an absolute walk after running five furlongs.

Even though the numbers say Elusive Quality offspring are much better sprinting - he does somehow have a Kentucky Derby winner in Smarty Jones and a Breeders Cup Classic winner in Raven's Pass.

Is Quality Road's dam not a full to Ajina? I don't think it's beyond the realm of possibility that his bottom line is stamina-oriented.

Though EQ was speed, his own damsire was Hero's Honor, a stamina influence from the outstanding stamina (and turf) based program of Paul Mellon. Mellon was a thoughful and methodical breeder and whose success was all but unrivaled.

If EQ can get a Derby winner from a daughter of Smile, I have to think he can get one from a daughter of Strawberry Road.

Yeah - that's been mentioned here a ton of times already. Half to Rob's Spirit as well.

It's still a pedigree much better suited for a sprinter/miler than a classic distance horse. The numbers are so lopsided with EQ that if he was bred to Better than Honour I wouldn't expect the horse to be as good routing as sprinting until the horse proves it.

The dam of Smarty Jones was a better router than sprinter.

Here's one of the rides no doubt from Tony Black's scrapbook - when he got SJ's dam beat in a 9f stake at the very tail end of her career. The chart caller even mentions he had her stuck on a dead rail .. she's toiling and all of a sudden surges when he finally gets her out.

Yeah Tomlinson's are useless half the time IMO, I'm not sure how the stats are compiled but would a horse that is able to route at a lesser track count as the same at a higher quality track when compiling the numbers. Same for the turf and slop numbers...Horses outperforming their breeding is an interesting topic, if I am not mistaken wasn't Holy Bull a freak, by Great Above who was only a modest sire. Surely there was no indication he would turn out to be the horse he was.

Any word yet on whether we will have 10 cent Supers on Derby day...

I'm pretty sure they'll be offered. . . that was announced a while ago. . .

As I recall last year, they offered 10 cent supers on every race EXCEPT the KY Derby. I'd be glad if they decided to include the derby itself this year.