Who was the last Derby winner that lost by 6 lengths in March?

Giacomo

not sure-but not all derby winners were always a star. look at real quiet, funny cide, thunder gulch, charismatic for example. by the same token, consider horses such as pyro-this time last year, he was all the talk.

Superstar hype? I must have missed this. I saw a few people suggesting he could be a nice one, but I didn't see any superstar hype.

Think of the intent. I Want Revenge has west coast connections, so he ran on synthetic by default. Pioneerof the Nile has east coast connections, and for some strange reason, they never tried him on dirt out here. I don't think IWR's performance today should change any opinions of POTN.

Not sure how that's relevant when a horse freaks like IWR did today.

:rolleyes:

Again, he had a lot going against him today and he certainly wasn't disgraced. I hope this is the prevailing sentiment going into the Wood, maybe I can get a good price on him.

The fact that POTN beat IWR doesn't change your opinion of POTN? To me, it legitimizes POTN a bit and makes the "Will he handle dirt?" question a bit more intriguing.

Imperial Council had shown a fair amount of early speed previously, it appeared they were trying something new today by sitting last in a pedestrian half. Possibly a great idea for the future, not so for the present.

It makes the question a bit more intriguing, if you don't have it answered already. I think I do.

NT

I think there is no connection whatsoever.

Why should it legitimize him any? If IWR had lost to POTN on turf, then did what he did today, would you be elevating POTN at all for the Derby?

Why don't you just go to his stable and blow him?

i disagree that it legitimizes potn-just because i want revenge handled dirt that does not indicate POTN will do the same, or at the same level of ability that he has shown on synthetic. what are the odds that several west coasters will all be able to translate to the real thing?

Were you inspired this time?

I didn't say that. I said the fact that I Want Revenge handled the dirt has no impact on my questions regarding Pioneerof The Nile.

Do I really have a radical argument here?

You all are missing my point. I'm not endorsing POTN at all. Not one bit. I too think he's a turf horse, but regardless, the fact he beat IWR who then came back to win today helps legitimate POTN's ability to a certain extent. What extent is that? Who knows. Time will tell.

The derby winner is not coming out of that race. That doesn't mean that a few of the participants couldn't make waves in other big races.

Fine, but that's not what you said. You said IWR's win makes the "Will POTN handle dirt question" more intriguing.

No you don't, and I just clarified what I was trying to say above.

I'm not correlating between both liking the synthetic surface and both translating it to dirt, but rather that if POTN were to handle the dirt, which honestly we can guess and handicap one way or the other, but if he were to handle it, the fact he beat IWR and that IWR came back to win today, shows that POTN does have some ability.

It's basic potential key race handicapping, nothing more, nothing less.

... we're kinda talking in circles but I meant it as if he does handle the dirt, he could be really good. But again, that's a big if on the dirt point.

not necessarily. POTN has the edge on syns-what that has to do with judging either horses ability on dirt i don't know. POTN might still manhandle IWR on dirt, or he might be in the back of the pack-or somewhere in between. they would have to square off on the real deal to get an accurate read on them.

I know of no one who has ever argued otherwise, unless we're talking dirt vs. turf/synthetic.

Again, why does it legitimize POTN's ability? IWR looks to be two different horses on the two surfaces. POTN beat the synthetic IWR, not the dirt one. It's like elevating Red Rocks because Curlin won the Woodward after losing to him in the Man O' War.

exactly. also, varying distances can have an effect. one perhaps will like shorter, the other, longer. but i do think it's doubtful that a bunch of calis are going to all take to dirt. or that the horses they've been beating on syns might not be able to turn the tables later....or be able to catch their peers as they continue to mature.

I have spent more time on this thread than it's worth. Time for a beer.

:rolleyes:

Damn, not the eye roll.

The horses that are training and racing on synthetic tracks seem to have more bottom and if they get a hold of the dirt they have something left when the real racing starts at the 1/4 pole.

I asked you a question and you couldn't answer it, so now this thread isn't worth your time. I think that deserves some rolling eyes. But I digress.

Fairly long. Quite long actually. But IWR is an example of how you just never know. If you say it's because IWR ran well at Hollywood, well so did POTN, so it's really a horse-by-horse basis. I let the synthetic trying dirt horse beat me. Luckily, I didn't bet the Gotham today because I would have lost. At his price, I was going to let IWR beat me all day long.

That said, I think the IWR camp did the right thing by finding out and running in the Gotham. Now they know they're legit on dirt, and can move forward accordingly.

Imperial Council while hampered by a slow pace, had a flawless rail trip, never had a straw in his path. His catching Mr Fantasy was more a reflection of Mr Fantasy's limitations than Imperial Councils strength. Haynesfield was terrible. This may have looked like a good field on paper but it sure doesnt look very goo outside the winner afterwards.

This is an empty theory especially since each synthetic surface is so different.

I didn't even see your question, my bad.

First off, I'm not elevating Red Rocks at all. He's not the same horse anymore.

And you're right, POTN beat the synthetic IWR. But the synthetic IWR was good enough to only lose to POTN by a... nose. Now we see the dirt IWR is pretty good, so if POTN were to handle dirt, then well based upon this comparative handicapping, it makes for another element of discussion. Which is all I was doing. Not proclaiming POTN as the Derby winner by any stretch. The wording in my original post was poor, and cause people to freak out with their keyboards a bit. My bad.

Too much Quarter horse exposure

There was a race today with five or six horses with the name "Dash" or "Cash" in their name. That'll make anyone nuts.

based on what?

Nobody's freaking out, just trying to point out that simply because I Want Revenge lost by a nose to Pioneerof the Nile, then freaked on dirt, that has little to no correlation to Pioneerof the Nile's ability or what he would do on dirt if he 'handled it'. You're smart enough to understand the Red Rocks/Curlin comparison and that it has nothing to do with what Red Rocks is or isn't. You know the point I was trying to make.

Agreed, and while the winner ran a pretty good race, I don't see him as a triple crown horse, which is ultimately what these 3yo preps ask.

Since when has the inner track at Aqueduct been comparable to a real dirt track? If you handicap that way, you'll lose a lot of $.

Are you playing " can you top this " for inane posts?

What are you talking about?

NT

oooh oooh let me try the eye roll
 

If you watched today's races, consider their breeding , and look at their strides in the head-on, Nicanor actually looks like he has a better chance to run a decent 10furlongs in May than Imperial Council.

:rolleyes:

seriously