I can only pray such a thing could happen.

LOL

Think what you want ... we shall see on June 7th. I don't think the 12 panels is going to be a problem for this horse. As fragile as the Mineshaft's have been, you better hope Casino Drive holds up for a mile and a half. ;)

The horses who have upset the T.C. candidates haven't had to be great. They just needed to finish up well. It isn't about them. The combination of

1) peaking in the Preakness

2) slightly different surface (looser "big sandy" surface)

3) no tight turns they are so used to

4) 12 f:)

seems to be what beats them....Not other horses.

Desormeaux gave Big Brown a hand ride yesterday and crushed the field by five lengths. This horse still has a lot left in the tank, and there really isn't a good reason to think that he can't go 12 panels in three weeks against this competition and win.

Casino Drive may put up a fight, but I don't see Big Brown losing the Belmont.

Useless information . . .
 

Forgive me for having too much time on my hands, but I was curious to see what the odds of one broodmare foaling the winner of a race like the Belmont three years in a row.

Using an rough estimate of 35,000 foals per year:
The odds of a broodmare foaling one Belmont winner is 1 in 35,000.
The odds of a broodmare foaling two consecutive Belmont winners is 1 in 1,225,000,000.
The odds of a broodmare foaling three consecutive Belmont winners is 1 in 42,875,000,000,000.

I'm no mathematician, so take it for what it's worth. Either way, it could be historic Belmont. If Casino Drive does pull it off, then Better Than Honor will have beaten some incredible odds.

Go back,and you'll see that both Smarty and Funny Cide won the Preakness in similar fashion. Dutrow's "techniques" may get him through the last leg, but this race is not like the other 2 legs. Since the last T.C. winner, there have been 11 who have won the 1st two legs. None , so far, have taken the 3rd leg. I do think that Desormeaux's experience in the race helps. Also, I think the trainer's enhancements may help. There are arguments in favor of both sides. There really was not a good argument against him winning the Preakness.

I'm gonna go out on the limb and say I think Big Brown may be better than Bluegrass Cat and Sunriver. Just a little. :rolleyes:

Do you think Bird Droppings was better than Smarty?

Just a little? I don't know, are you sure? LOL. Ali v. Marciano, Ali v. Tyson, Tiger v. Palmer, Tiger v. Nicklaus, and so on.

Eric

We wont know for three weeks, but I feel that Smarty and Funny Cide were both pushed in the Preakness a little to hard. They won by open lenghts but I think it took a lot more out of them than Big Brown.

Big Brown didnt even look tired after the race and the only time he actually ran hard were those 5 strides he took to open up 6 on the field. Kent looked like he had a hold of him for like a mile in that race. shoot he even said he was still holding him back around the far turn, and once he opened up Kent eased on him. He looked like he wanted to run 2 miles yesterday.

I may go out on the limb and say there will be at least 6 lengths between Big Brown and Casino Drive at the end of the Belmont, with Big Brown in front of course. I really feel it will be a Point Given / Afleet Alex type Belmont performance.

If I recall correctly, wasn't Funny Cide needlessly whipped all the way to the wire in his Preakness? It seemed like that driving finish sapped him of energy that he would need three weeks later. As for Smarty, I wonder if he was running against a stronger crop with more legitimate contenders. It seemed like they threw speed at him the whole way. I kind of think that Big Brown can rate the speedballs and take over the race once they have burned out.

I won't debate the Preakness aspect itself, but with Funny Cide -- he was becoming sharper and sharper, and more unmanagable as they got closer to the Belmont. His final work before the Belmont was merely the culmination of what had been going on. This is no reflection on Tagg by the way as I think he is an excellent horseman, and he is very well respected by his peers.

Eric

Only two horses since Secretariat have gone 126..Easy Goer and AP Indy,there is no WAY Casino Drive runs a 126...the horse has run two times...two times, let me say it again TWO times and somehow you and these other goofballs think he is a monster. I am hoping to at least see a triple crown winner in my lifetime, hoping to see a good race and BB crosing the line first.

Depending on how many enter, if Big Brown is 1-9, I don't think it's possible for another horse to be less than 7-1 or so.
With Casino Drive, Denis of Cork and perhaps a few more fresh horses coming in, I highly doubt Big Brown would be 1-9. Even casual fans know how difficult it is winning the triple crown, and many will be trying to beat him on Belmont day.

Thats right... I forgot and he was rank as hell in the Belmont... who knows what may have happened if he could settle. It would have been tough beating Empire Maker though.

I dont think Casino Drive is anything like Empire Maker... or Birdstone for that matter. or Victory Gallop.. or Touch Gold... I can go on and on.

Well,we are due for a T. C. Winner. I do know if he doesn't want the full 12f, then he we be found out. I think, compared to the tracks he has been running on, this actually will feel like a mile and 3/4 race. He may want that, and he may not. The fact that Jazil looked like did(against horses he already faced in the Derby) should show you how different it is from the other 2 legs. Certain horses either adore the surface, or the distance. People don't realize some really like the change to this surface.

On that day he was...was Coastal better then the Bid?, was Sarava better then War Emblem?

I love Jazil but the reason he won is because he was the only horse capable of running the 12f. The 95 beyer was incredibly slow but the pedigree usually wins out in the belmont.

Who is going to make Big Brown run for more than maybe 3 furlongs of the Belmont? Certainly no one we've seen so far, and if you say Casino Drive will press him from when they kick it I will puke.

Why wouldn't Casino press him? Casino is obviously talented. More talented than anything Big Brown has faced. Casino's mother has also won this race 2 years in a row with her offspring. Did you think Rags would beat HOY Curlin in last years Belmont?

Oh my God. :D

It's his 3rd lifetime start and he is stretching out 3 furlongs. While he is better bred for the mile and a half I can't imagine that you think he is ready to take on the horse that is towering over his crop from the start of the race. Rags to Riches had 5 or 6 starts and won the Gr 1 Kentucky Oaks. Jazil beat an average field in the Belmont, but he competed in the Wood Memorial and the Derby before the Belmont.

While Casino Drive was impressive in the Peter Pan, Big Brown was jaw dropping in the Preakness.

If you hought the Preakness was a bunch of bums, what was behind Casino in the Peter Pan?

I don't think you can just throw CD in this race and say he is the most likely winner just because of his dam.

Big Brown is clearly becoming the value of the race with all this hype. . .

You didn't think I was serious, I was trying to illustrate maybe not so effectively how over the top the talk up of Casino Drive is off one 'good' win mind you over a weak field in the Peter Pan is. I mean Godzilla? Come now...He's got promise but keep in mind he has a lot to prove just yet.