How about more pace than in any other of the preps we have seen. I cant think of a single prep that had fast fractions. If 2 or 3 horses go out hard in the Derby, and the stalkers move prematurely, and you have a pace meltdown, Smooth Air is one of about 3 horses who will likely benefit from this and pull a "Giacomo", if you will. Hes got a good chance. Just dont fall for too short of a price.

Court Vision has won a Graded Stakes at Churchill as well.
Neither horse has set the world on fire with their 3-year old form, but I would take G.Gomez and Court Vision before Anak Nakal on all of my derby tickets.

Well, they went 22.76 and 45.83 in the Florida Derby. That isn't exactly crawling.
He had a very favorable post and a great trip that day, but despite that (and despite the fact that he seemed to be running his guts out in the stretch), he didn't close an inch. The pace was fast enough that day that the horses who were second, third, fourth, and fifth at a 1/4 and a 1/2, ALL finished seventh or worse. It wasn't like they were cheap speed either. Fierce Wind and Elysium Fields were two of the favorites. Meanwhile, the horses coming from off the pace (Tomcito, Cool Gator, Majestic Warrior) ALL finished in the top half. Big Brown obviously ran a very nice race that day, but given the early pace, I have to think that if Smooth Air was really a top-notch two-turn horse, he would have made up SOME ground, or at least have done something in the stretch other than look completely spent.
His previous race in Tampa (the Sam Davis) showed me the same thing. Big Truck simply ran by him at the end.
To me he is a closer that just flattens out in the stretch when asked to go two-turns, and I don't think the increase in distance to 10f can do anything but hurt him.

i don't think any of these 3 y/o's are good enough to carry AA's gear.

i think this derby has "giacomo" written all over it. it's a matter of finding the horses in this group that can pick up the pieces. smooth air's fitness may allow him to do it.

I don't see how anyone can honestly toss horses on a whim in this race. This entire crop has been nothing but a bunch of horses taking turns beating each other. If someone feels like Smooth Air can get the trip at 40-1, I say have at it. There's nothing wrong with betting a horse who is 7-for-7 in the money in a group like this.

"Right behind him"? Smooth Air beat Tomcito by 7 1/2. If that's "right behind him", then Smooth Air photo'ed with Big Brown.

Derby lunacy has reached a new low with this thread.

Smooth Air? Thanks....I need the laughs.

I guess this means i should stop trying to find a Smooth Air hat for you? :p

I think I'm drinking from the Smooth Aid too. He keeps looking better and better to me.

Really? What are you looking at?
It must not be videos of his races.

I know he got a great trip in the Florida Derby but he did run fast (relative to this crop) there and I like a horse that puts up a bigger figure at a mile and an eighth on the stretchout to a mile and a quarter. I think the long works since his last race will have him fit for the mile and a quarter and in an atrocious collection of horses in this Derby, why not him? I don't really like his chances to win but do think he has as good a shot to hit the board as anyone not named Big Brown or Pyro and he is obviously going to spice up your tri a hell of a lot more than those two would.

i don't understand why he keeps getting lauded for his supposed fitness level. i'm assuming all the horses will be as fit as their trainers can get them, so on that playing field i'd think they'd be level.
i think there are too many others with more pluses in their column.

It's amazing what people can come up with to defend the indefensible.

Smooth Air is a complete non-contender.

Just out of curiosity, who are you leaning towards?

I tend to wait for races to be drawn and pps to come out. I'm funny that way.

not smoth air. its how people justify big brown being good . wow he beat smooth air. by the way tomcito ran real good the other day too. he had to win to get in and he was up the track. i see all the tomcito threads went by the wayside....lol...

Is that a Big Brown I smell?

smooth air has a ok shot to be in the top 4 big brown on the other hand has nothing to do with this ..his merit is the speed he has shown..and the way hes done nothing wrong yet.save be involved with ieah....but i cant fault the horse ..hes innocent......

Understandable, but it seems pretty easy to **** on others' opinions while taking no stand of your own.

Joey, give me a call in twenty years when you've even had the opportunity to take as many stands as I have.

The give me a call in a third lifetime when you have.

whose your bottom quote from?

While I obviously don't agree with the first part I very much agree with the rest. Like it or not, Big Brown is the horse to beat. That doesn't mean I will bet him, or even greatly like his chances, in the Derby but nobody should make the foolish mistake of thinking that right now he is anything other than the horse to beat and deserving favorite.

I will take full credit.

Blah blah blah. That's irrelevant here. I'm talking about today, right now, in this thread.

Oh....that's funny. I can't see signatures and I forgot about that.

KYRIM.

I remember the day I read it like it was yesterday. Sad not having her around anymore:rolleyes:

krim?

It's not irrelevant to what you said ( and implied ). Sorry if you don't like my answer....but it's true.

whatever, nothing wrong , 3 races 5-2 or under in a 20 horse field going 1and 1/4. the odds are against and hes short . thats enough wrong right there.

Man, I know you've taken plenty of stands in the past. I'm just saying I think it's lame to spit on people who like Smooth Air without backing it up or telling us who your "contenders" are. That's all.

This is getting a little silly.

I don't see why there's any pressure on BTW to post his pick.

If he disagrees about Smooth Air being a contender at least he does it with style and a little humor.....

I don't think it's " lame " at all.....in fact I think it is just the opposite. I am trying to dissuade people from betting a horse that I believe has little or no chance and even at 40:1, and I think he will be considerably lower, is an underlay.

Perhaps I should " back it up ", and I will, but I don't offer my opinions unless I feel I can back them up....it's basically implicit and more than most I have probably earned that right. However, in a nutshell, while Smooth Air is a nice and talented horse, what he showed inarguably is that he will not get better as the distances get longer. He had an absolute dream trip and set-up in the Florida Derby, made what looked to be a winning move on the turn, and then had absolutely no finish. The only reason he finished second was that there were no horses of quality ( besides the winner ) competing that day. Any that may be better than him, Elysium Fields comes to mind, did not fire at all. Essentially he was second by default....just as Tomcito was third for the same reasons. Look how many were fooled by him.

I don't have a problem with anyone's opinion, regardless of whether or not the author takes a stand. If the author takes a stand before the race, great. If not, take it for what you think it's worth. You don't like it, move on. Take what you like and leave the rest. JMO, but I would bet that Andy will no doubt take a stand before the race.

In this case, Andy certainly doesn't need any help defending himself, or his opinion, but he's certainly well known for: a) taking a stand, and, b) most often waiting until PP's are drawn and out. In addition, I don't know if it applies here, but Andy has always seemed to be a big practitioner of watching replays.

At this stage, for me, until PP's are drawn and out, I am more than willing to hear who the "toss" horses are.

Eric

By the way -- I may not agree with Andy's opinion, and my friend (friend's family) owns Smooth Air.

Eric

i think getting first dibs on a winner is all about ego.

there aren't a lot of races where people try to pick the winner before the field is finalized. more information is usually better than less information.

i settled on charismatic 10 minutes before post because i thought he had 1 chance in 10 of winning but was 30-1. yet i still locked into saarland after the remsen.

so i understand the urge.

but i respect people that resist it.