For the critics of Recapturetheglory who say he is not fast. He has the second fastest dirt beyer and second fastest rag out of all 3yr old dirt efforts.

Big Brown's Best Beyer 106
Recapturetheglory 102.

Big Brown's best Rag 2
Recapturetheglory best rag 4.

sorry War Pass is injured. That is never a good thing.

So... who gets in that wasn't?

There is more to horse racing but not more to determining if a horse is fast or not. Recapturetheglory is a fast horse and if Big Brown bumped heads with him early you could kiss both of them goodbye. If I was BB I would rather have War Pass in the derby than not have him in there. If Bob doesn't take to the dirt a horse like Recapture could be out there all alone.

You seem to be confusing early speed and speed figures

Well at least I am not down on my knees in front of Zito with my mouth wide open like some people on this board. And at my age, I will take a hard on anytime.

thanks for bringing these facts to light, its looks like you've really done your research.

The sad thing is that while you would never be in this situation, you would have tried the same exact thing with War Pass, and it really wasn't because they stretched him out. Horses stretch out all the time.

For you to think Zito ruined this horse, just shows you have a very bias opinion.

To be fair to Zito, he has done some good training jobs. War Pass was not completely 100% healthy for the Tampa Bay Derby. Then he puts the horse in a spot (The Wood) knowing that it was highly unlikely he would get the distance. Then the horse goes out there and runs blazing fractions in the Wood. I think it is up to the trainer to know what type of horse he/she has (this mistake happens all the time). Zito should have known War Pass was a horse that was better at distances between 7 furlongs and 1 1/16 miles. Some believe the plan was good for War Pass. But the plan didn't work. Some people on this board believe that when a plan doesn't work then the horse was mismanaged. For me, I think the plan for War Pass should have been a plan that included the Preakness instead of the Derby if you wanted to run in a Triple Crown race. However, he should have been pointed to the Met Mile.

don't tell them that.! you are giving away secrets, like actually handicapping! like i said on the other thread: if the beyers and speed figs are so accurate how come everyone isn't getting rich and quitting their jobs? why do 2-5 shots lose ? if you are basing all your bets on figs you don't know much about the actual racing part ! i don't care if big brown ran a 140, i don't think he will get 1 mile 1/4 off 3 races with sore feet .

You seem to have good insight. I'm just wondering if you posted this view prior to WP getting injured.

Spyder

No. I am saying a horse with early speed that puts up big speed figures is not just early speed. This horse is very dangerous if left alone on the lead. He isn't going to fold without some pressure. This Cherokee Run becomes much more dangerous without the other Cherokee Run in there. Now Bob Black Jack is the only horse i can see going with him and he seemed to try to rate his last race.

I believe I stated several times that War Pass had distance limitations. I put him in my Derby top 5 because someone would have to pass him and all these horses are pretty bad (see War Emblem). So why not take a shot with a horse that was going to be 15-1 or more who at least will be on or very very near the lead. I didn't post a plan for him because no one asked me.

Usually owners call the shots with Derby horses, not trainers. They were smart to do what they did. He always had a small shot if the track came up sloppy. If they didn't try and it rained that day they would never forgive themselves.

Zito already has an older horse that is targeting the Met Mile and there is no reason to run 3yr olds against older horses that early in the year.

LOL.

Eric

Funny Cide, Sheik Mo and favorite racecaller probably deserve a spot on your list. they consistently draw a crowd.

I would normally agree with your statement that owners call the shots. But LaPenta values Zito's opinion greatly and I am sure Zito could have talked him out of running War Pass in the Derby. I would say the blame should be shared between the two of them. And if Zito has a horse already being pointed to the Met Mile, then run War Pass in the Preakness. Heck, they have Cool Coal Man for the Derby. If Cool Coal Man wins the Derby then they have two for the Preakness. If CCM doesnt win the Derby, then you have War Pass for the Preakness and CCM for the Belmont with a 5 week layoff.

all-all-4-all.

3 out of 4.

Listen, the bottom line is that the colt has no chance to win the race and only about a 0.0000001% chance of hitting the board. In a race with very few tosses, he is absolutely one of them.
The colt is 2 for 2 lifetime on the Hawthorne strip and 0 for 4 everywhere else. You can cite all of the BSFs you want too, but with the kind of trip he got in the Illinois Derby, it sure means a lot less than it otherwise would. I hope you know that there is absolutely no way he'll run a 102 going 10f at CD. He'll be lucky to top 90.
At this point I don't think I'll be betting on Big Brown either, but comparing him to Recapturetheglory is a little nutty in my opinion.

illinois derby gets an inflated beyer every year and then the winner takes up space in the churchill gate and somehow turns into a goat when it opens.

this horse isn't war emblem, he's cowtown cat.

Exactly.
DrugS posted this awhile ago, but I guess it needs to be reposted for some people here.


"The Ill Derby has a history of front end winners producing crazy fast figures.

* Last year, Cowtown Cat went wire-to-wire and was given just a 98 Beyer figure after running a time that suggested he ran significantly faster. BRIS didn't adjust there figure...and had him running faster than Holy Bull ever had on there numbers - he went on to finish 20th in the Derby while having the highest last out BRIS fig in the entire field.

* Two years ago, Sweetnorthersaint sat second less than a length off of pace setter Mr. Triester (who stayed on to finish 2nd) - he put him away, won by 9, got huge figures from all figure makers and was bet to Derby favortisim.

* Three years ago, Greeley's Galazy stalked the pace from up close and won with a 106 Beyer that might have been reduced a little if I recall. He never ran back to it.

* Four years ago, Pollards Vision went wire-to-wire and ran a 107 Beyer. He returned to run 17th beaten 40 lengths in the Derby."

The pace propelled him to victory, not some rail or speed bias on Illinois Derby day. There wasn't one.

I'm not sure why it's so easy for people to remember this about the Illinois Derby.

Anyway, I have read a few people saying that if anyone was Zito's position, they would have done exactly the same with War Pass that Zito did. I don't agree. I was of the belief that something was way wrong with War Pass after the Tampa race. I wouldn't have pressed on to the Wood after that. And even if for some reason I had, after the Wood, I was strong in my opinion that the Derby chase should have ended right there. Yet Zito was continuing on saying it was a day by day thing and that the Derby was still a consideration. I'm not saying Zito is wrong or that I'm right here because he knows the horse better than I do. But from all I was able to see, I think I would have taken a different approach.

Is it redboarding or 20/20 hindsight when you predict a horse will be done and he's done one race later than you predicted?

So you know more than Zito about his own horses?

There was nothing wrong with him in the TB Derby. He just didn't handle the track and he couldn't get the lead.

The horse got hurt in the last 1/16th in the Wood. He ran a fine race in the Wood, it was just too far for him.

To answer your question Benevolus, read the highlighted part.

All of this is meaningless in a different year. This year the 3yr olds are a bunch of slow horses.

The fact those Illinois Derby winners couldn't get an early lead. There was speed in those races. This year there might not be anyone to go with the horse.

I know one Illinois Derby winner that everyone looked past and he ran 1-2-3 along with Proud Citizen and Perfect Drift all way around the track.

I see your point but your use of the phrase "way wrong" made me think you were saying he had a broken ankle going into the Wood. Not sure there could be something way wrong with the horse that the trainer could have missed.

I like Zito though, so I am sure I am being a little picky. Cool Coal Man is my choice on derby day, so what do I know.

War Pass is a miler and to extend him past that was asking for trouble imo.

I don't understand this. He won twice as a 2 yo going longer than a mile and won the 2 yo championship as a result.

What would you have done with him? How long is the Delta Jackpot race?

I'll miss him. He was very fast 2 yo who was going to be challenged as they all are to go 10F. But he really didn't get the chance. He was less than 100% for the Tampa race and who knows how fit he was for the Wood.

Interesting to note that on ESPN2 just now they said Dutrow wanted War Pass in there so that he had something to run at. I have to agree with Dutrow. This hurts Big Brown and now they have to figure out to go to the lead or sit back off of somebody.

this is utter nonsense.

if he inherits the lead he'll be happy to slow it down. if no chancers like recapitulatecowtowncat want to run off, he'll stalk and wait for them to back up.

there is no one whose chances rise more than big brown's on this news.

Well Jerry Bailey, Dutrow, and most importantly me :) , disagree. 10f is a long way to run on the front. Horses don't always slow down when they hear 19 horses behind them. The 45 and change fractions he has set in his two dirt races don't cut it in a 10f race. That stretch gets mighty long when you have nothing to shoot at and the cavalry starts coming. That last 1/8th has taken out many a good horse that has more than 3 career races to his credit. Kent seems to be a better rider with something to shoot at too.

I really need to thank everyone for the entertainment in this thread and I can only apologize for not doing my part. The highlight? Gotta be the poster who hasn't been here in over five months but blessed us with fifteen ( yeah....I counted ) posts defending the merits of one of the most improbable horses in this year's watered down version of the Kentucky Derby....even going so far as to suggest that he will be a legitimate pace factor. I'll side with " God " in that he is no more likely than last year's last place finisher Cowtown Cat.

I'll miss War Pass and for the obvious reasons I am saddened by what happened. He would most certainly have had his work cut out for him in the Derby but, like him or not, this year's biggest race lost some luster with his defection. And, more than any Derby I can remember, this version needed all the help it could get.

that wasn't just a back massage. it was not just a banana in his pants. and there is a reason your ass is sore.

get a clue.

Dan Illman seems to agree with me. And I see he has a blog at the drf. They must view him as a superior handicapper to you because I can't seem to find yours. :)

"Recapturetheglory has good speed, is proven at nine furlongs, and is one of the few three-year-olds that have earned a triple-digit Beyer Speed Figure. He’s an interesting sleeper."

http://www.drf.com/tc/kentuckyderby/...dar/radar.html

When you've helped as many people on my website learn how to improve their horse play and make money as Andy Serling has, let me know.

(And before I hear how I play favorites and the other stuff, let me say that those with nothing to add on this website but attempts to antagonize are going to 'move on'.)

No

Beyer numbers are not "facts"

It is jerkoff statements like this that make good educated posters leave this joint. It takes the actions of one to ruin things for many. Luckily, alot of them have thick skin.

Dan Illman is bootleg as hell, couldn't handicap a 1 horse race. 2ndly, while you are right about Recapturetheglory's Beyer, I am guessing you know the WHOLE story about what is going on, like the fact that Louie Roussel has been real sick of years, and Recapturetheglory was 'thrown' into the Hawthorne race to take a chance, and took 100% advantage of a cooked rail job.

I still am laughing at the fact that you are listening to Dan Illman, and then using his opinion to back up yours.

Dan Illman has a f'n blog. 50% of america has a friggin blog