santa anita could switch back to dirt..........although the CUSION seams to be more comparable to dirt than POLY.

I think the real silliness is making Big Brown the Derby favorite off of one race.....by the way, Colonel John is my top pick at this time. Process of elimination, all the other possible favorites got holes in them too. At least Colonel John has run consistent, albeit on a non-dirt surface.

I thought he had some dirt runs at two?

He is not going to even work at Churchill so we wont even have that to try to use. Not that a work would tell you whether a horse can handle the track in a race anyway.

If Pyro wins the Derby his connections better worry more about the Preakness than the Classic.

see what i mean about the better informed part?

If you believe Court Vision is the slowest Derby horse ever it's obvious that you are not familiar with Saarland.

http://www.usatoday.com/sports/horse...ley-column.htm

ESPN had a reporter following this slug throughout the prep races.
This is only a link with early April doings of this horse.

http://sports.espn.go.com/espn/print...253&type=story

i know there'd be no dirt kicked back in his face but why wouldn't they want to give him a work over the track?

any insight to what the trainer is thinking?

Well I thought he had run on dirt.

All his races have been very consistent.
He looks very relaxed and seems to find
ways not to get into difficult positions. No panic,
very professional. All around solid performer so
far, and more distance is good. Plenty of speed
to set him up it looks like. I think he can handle
being in a number in the pack spots behind the
leaders.

I dont see a more consistent horse.
Except 3 races with Big Brown.

Says he just wants to keep him in same surrounding as long as possible. Probablty thinks that 1 work over track wont make a difference.

Saarland had a 99 and 95 Beyer going into the Derby. That is a far cry from Court Vision whose career high is a 90. I can't imagine there have been many Derby horses in history to have a lower career high Beyer.

I just checked Derby PPs back to 2003. There was one horse slower than Court Vision and that was Seaside Retreat who went into the Derby with a career high Beyer of 85. The next closest to as woefully slow as Court Vision was Bwana Bull with a career high of 91.

Chuck does that make sense, from a trainers POV? Wouldn't you want to see how he works at least once, or eveen just a breeze to see even any signals of how he may handle it on race day?

since when does the highest beyer mean the horse is going to win. i laugh at that crap. its good for me though cause people bet that way all the time. furthurmore the beyers for the synthetic are a line of garbage anyway, especially at SA. is there any one out there that actually handicaps races anymore ? the numbers are fine but if you are betting just based on that ,well, you are missing alot of value out there . colonel john is not my top pick , but i like him. the race is loaded with speed . if it does not rain a closer will probably win. there will be horses winging out there at a fast pace and they have no shot, ( it happens ALMOST every year). its not rocket science or speed figs that see this race almost always falls apart at the end . and here comes the strong fininsher to clean up the leftovers, i could care less what his beyers were . hes won some major preps, has a great trainer that would not show up for nothing . most importantly has a running style that takes about 7 out of 10 kentucky derbies. if people could win just by betting the highest beyer figs why aren't they quitting their jobs ?

Beyers are fine on sythetic tracks when comparing them to other synthetic numbers. They are not, however, fine when comparing them to dirt numbers.

He is very live because of

1)the lack of talent in the field
2) his seasoning,
3) his pedigree for dirt
4) right running style for derby
5) and most importantly he appears to be one of the few without any question about the 10f distance.

If he puts in a big work on the churchill strip I would think he would be the horse to beat. I just don't see how you can take less than 5-1 on any horse in this field, especially a horse with 2 career dirt races (big brown) or a horse with no career dirt races (colonel john). I will take Cool Coal Man at a nice price.

Thanks for saying this, it seems to be overlooked by most writers when discussing byers in these Triple Crown races when comparing the figs to past years same race figs on dirt


All the synth figs for 2 and 3 year olds are correspondingly low

it does make it hard to handicap, what is a 90 synthetic at santa anita really worth 100 on dirt, or visa versa, horse runs 100 beyer at aqu ships to santa anita, should we give him a 90 and judge him to the other synthetic numbers the horses have he is going against? This derby preps and other stake races have certainly opened some eyes into how the figures are being made. Zenyatta looked visually impressive at santa anita yet kept running a slow figure, she ships and runs just as impressive as before and gets a 104? How did she get so fast, or did she and there is a problem with the figures, if figures are a way to determine raw ability?

The synthetics make it hard to figure but the trend right now is that the CA horses are doing quite well against the east coast horses. Two big wins in Arkansas and another today even though it was on polytrack. If they get a great work in at Churchill it would be easy to make the case for them.

The one thing you can't really argue with is that the east coast horses are very slow this year.

I think the two Jones fillies might be better than all of them except Big Brown and he is very vulnerable in the derby.

What about Anak Nakal?? Has he reached 90 yet?

I see both sides of the street. Say he works so-so? Do you not run?

I see your point, but because anything can happen in the race, even if he worked so, so I'd still take a shot barring any injury or sickness.

If they don't see a poor work, at least they get the thrill until he hits the second turn and see he's spinning his wheels. If he went over to CD and floundered, the connections would have all kinds of doubt instead of optimism...dumb reason not to work him there, but it's a reason regardless.

Exactly. The second guessing will be in full force. The truth is that one work over CD isnt nearly as important as it once was. For my own selfish reasons i would like to see him work but I get what Harty is doing.

I think he will handle the track.They aren't worried about that.I think he'll be close to winning,but he can't afford trouble.He is good,but not dominant.There was a horse in the Santa Anita Derby who got 1st run on him.If he'd of kept running,then he would of held Colonel off.So,if you play this horse to win,then you have to hope that the faster horses can't keep running the full 10 f.That's possible,but I wouldn't want to count on it.It's not like if he runs his race then it's game over.He is consistent.No problems coming in.He has never really run a huge race.I think if he had then he'd look very typical (of a Derby winner.) That's the question-is he good enough? I think he might have to improve over dirt(in order to win it.) The trainer thinks he might be better on dirt.Who knows? I think you deserve 10-1 on the win end,and doubt you'll get it.

10/1 is a pipe dream, especially now that War Pass is adios. War Pass leaving makes Big Brown probably 9/5 now. War Pass would have been a suckers 8/1 IMO.

besides all the above...... he is a dual qualifier!! :rolleyes:

What is with this? Every time I see someone call Big Brown's odds, it's lower than the previous "estimate". I don't think there's any way he's lower than 5/2. That's still a major underlay though.

I think people will unload on this horse. You have cocky connections that will be in front of the media all week, a good name, sheet talk, and what else in the race.

I mean, listen, I can't stand the horse, mostly because of the connections, and I won't be using him, but if he runs his race, he will destroy this field, by OPEN lengths. I'll take that risk but his number is absolutely monsterous compared to this field.

I don't think numbers mean a whole hell of a lot when it comes to a horse this green and this fragile.

There are a lot of trainers in this country.Did these people just happen to end up with the top 3 year old in the country,and the top sprinter in the country? I guess it's possible....Add in the B.C. Turf mile winner.That's kind of odd(the way the horse talent just seemed to cluster like that,huh?)

You don't think that people are going to hear that this horse ran a neg 3 and no one is even close to that? People eat that stuff up

People who bet based solely on figures will pound him. I think that's a very minor part of the betting public though, even on Derby day.

Joey,what about all the money people just won't bet on the others(because they think BROWN simply has different fuel in his tank.)It's not just that people will play BROWN. You can't really bet heavy against a barn with horses who don't get tired.

Okay, who do you think the people that were going to bet War Pass are going to bet now?

Zito obsessors: Cool Coal Man.
Front runner lovers: Bob Black Jack or Recapture the Glory
Maybe just the best horse trained by the best trainer, Big Brown.

I say those 4 horses are going to take the majority of the cash that was to be bet on War Pass maybe in this order...

1) Big Brown- Logically the best horse trained by the guy with more tricks up his sleeve than a magician.

2) Cool Coal Man- Some people just want Zito to win this badly and dont wouldnt want to be without a win ticket if Zito were to win this race.

3) Bob Black Jack- Hes been the "4th most mentioned California horse", if you will. Gayego and Colonel John are hot, hot, hot in the media right now, but El Galo Malo's stock has plummeted and probably wont even run in the Derby.

4) Recapture the Glory- the least because not many people even know the Illinois Derby is a race.


I think Big Brown goes off 2/1 and Colonel John about 5/1, and guess which one of these I think is the bigger underlay? Yup, Colonel John at 5/1.

In most races I would agree, but the Derby is a bit different. You get guys who never bet any other race all year long but the Derby. Celebrities who lay down tens of thousands of dollars, and Nick has friends in the celebrity circle. I'm not talking about horse racing celebrities either (is there such a thing?), I am talking about real celebrities who make the cover of magazines.
Jack Black bet 25K on the Derby last year. Jerry O' Connell reportedly had over 40K in bets. Kid Rock got on National TV and showed America his ticket, which had to cost over $20 grand.

Ya Zito and Kid Rock go way back . . .

LOL, you'd be surprised who Nick knows. Ben Afflect brings over 100K with him when he goes. Phil Mickelson, also a huge gambler. Doesnt make bets under 50K. Judd Nelson (ex breakfast Club & St. Elmos Fire actor) loves to plunk down thousands on this race as well.
I dont believe that this kind of money wouldnt affect pools. There are only a few trainers who rub elbows with the real celebs, and Nick is one of them.

I think all of those people you speak of must have all bet very early on Imawildandcrazyguy last year.