He looks like he's been training well, Coach. Personally I don't think he's nearly as talented as a few in here but he might be fully cranked for this. Tagg says he might not run him if the weather's bad, though.

Playing the Maker's Mark / Bluegrass double tomorow from the road.

KDeville/ CCMan, Pyro for 4$
KDeville/ CCal, BTruck, Visionaire for 4$
Einstein,R+Ready, Thous. Words, OOControl, Shakis/ CCal, BTruck for 1$

Best of luck to those playing tomorrow!!

Yes.

I like Monba too.

I like Monba to beat the ambulance by at least a length.

I like that attitude. If the trainer wasn't Tap I'd be looking at 50-1 odds.

No.

This is polytrack. Normal handicapping methods go out the window on this sissy crap.

Just watch. Monba and Big Truck will run big on this garbage.

yeah dumb move by Zito not to snatch up Gomez, who is trying to land on a legit derby contender.

Great betting race, sure(the Bluegrass) and the exotics would be huge if Pyro gets blocked during the 9 horse blanket finish(which would be great for Pyro's Derby odds), but I need to win tomorrow

I'll be with Pyro, who's training well on the track, and against him by exacta boxing Pyro with Monba. Monba has a great record on synthetic surfaces, exiting a key race 1/2 length behind Colonel John, who returned to win the SA Derby

Pletcher's last best hope?

I can't go for the tri here because I would think even Kentucky Bear might screw the wager up

Bummed enough to think you should have gone to the AR derby for the $1M purse? Bummed enough to go back and realize the rules have been the same for some time and everyone knew the Bluegrass would be on Polytrack and could produce a middle of the road dirt/turf horse? Bummed enough to think that maybe your horse should have won a big race or two and there wouldn't be a problem?

Just thinking. Every year someone complains when everyone knows the rules and everyone knows the preps and the benefits and pitfalls of approaching the Derby certain ways.

But my point, is shouldn't you have ensured your horse was in a spot prior to the Blue Grass where the results wouldn't affect whether your horse made the gate or not?

The horses who have won, or have consistently run competitively in several graded stakes are already sure to get in.

If I recall correctly, 'Cal was horrific on dirt in his debut, no? Wouldn't be the first time a decent horse didn't run well first time out, surely won't be the last. After having nearly a year to get the requisite earnings with loads of stakes races with qualifying purses out there, I have a really hard time feeling sorry for someone whose horse comes up $10K short because the winner of a $750K Grade I race kept them out of the Derby.

It's not like these rules came out of nowhere three weeks ago...put your horse in a spot where you rely on his races to get in, instead of relying on someone else to run poorly to get in.

Synthetic and turf races shouldn't count for the Derby. Problem solved.

......really, keenland is a complete joke.

When was the last time a horse who barely snuck in on earnings really was a factor in the Derby anyway?

If a super kicker counts as being "a factor," and in a 20 horse field, I would say that qualifies, then last year.

Nah, I'd say a horse who actually had a shot of winning. Lumbering up for fourth shouldn't really count.

Well that's an irrelevant question in regards to this topic anyway then, isn't it?

Are any of the horses on the bubble, who may be edged out by a less qualified dirt horse (read: Cowboy Cal in Cardus's example), really going to be a factor anyway by your definition?

Nope, so either way, horses with no chance to win are getting in the gate, so what's the point in arguing which of the also-rans belong and which don't?

Granted, I'm biased this year because I have a future on Cowboy Cal and would at least like to have action in three weeks, but every year this same argument comes up. Every year the rules are the same. Every year, everyone knew them in advance. Every year everyone knows their options, so why do we re-hash it every year? Play by the rules and get your horse who deserves to be in the gate, enough earnings to get in the gate.

You tell em Spence!

I'm not disagreeing with your assertion, brian. I am just making the point that the folks who might be whining about their horse missing out on the Derby because of Cowboy Cal probably don't have much of a Derby contender anyway.

Got it. I thought you were talking about the horses who got in at the last minute as opposed to those knocked out at the last minute. Same thing I guess.

I'm just fired up today.

i think they should limit to 14 starters, and make only three year old graded earnings count. would certainly limit the amount of horses coming in on two preps.

I STRONGLY disagree with your first idea, but your second is ok.

how do the horses who finish 15-20 enhance the race?

It's not about after the race, but before.

Though I would like to see Big Truck get another win, I have a hunch that Kentucky Bear is going to run big here. I'll probably bet a trillion dollars on him to win if his odds stay generous. :cool:

why do ppl like kentucky bear ? how many horse run big breaking there maiden then never ever run back to that . and now ppl like this horse to beat this group, i think he has a better chance to run last.

Re: Kentucky Bear, because when one sees a 50-1 shot with a legit shot at crashing the tri.......although realistically I doubt he will be over 20-1. The horse was 4-1 in the FOY.

As for who should like the surface and who shouldn't, while I'm not a fan of synthetics, I've been tracking what stallions' offspring handle it best. Here's who should move up and who should regress:

SHOULD MOVE UP
Visionaire- Grand Slam is one of the top synthetic sires I've seen. GS first time poly has been a strong angle. GS's usually handle dirt or turf.
Cowboy Cal--Giants Causeway another solid synthetic sire. He's only run on dirt once and that was sprinting against a strong field of Sar Mdns
Kentucky Bear--love the Mr. Greeley offspring on synthetic. As a runner, I only remember him running on dirt but his offspring like the fake stuff.

LOOKING TO REGRESS
Big Truck---I really haven't seen many Hook and Ladder runners but he was strictly a dirt sprinter. His turf Tomlinson is solid but he'll have to show me first.
Pyro---he may be good enough to win even if he doesn't really love the stuff. Like AP Indy, most Pulpits would rather run on real dirt or grass.
Cool Coal Man--haven't seen many Mineshafts yet but being by AP Indy, they tend to be overbet on Poly.

he will 100% be over 20-1.
there are to many other horses to be bet hard in here.

I'm thinking the same way Big Truck and Monba worked well here and they are two that need this one. Trying to figure some combinations with them around the two chalks.

how does big truck need this ?

for the money.

I figured he was in off his Tampa Bay Derby win. ???

tagg says it's close, that there are other preps, and other horses who could move in ahead of big truck.

I don't really understand how people can be backing Pyro at anything close to even money in a full field when he has no form on synthetics, Pulpits have not done well on synthetics, Lapenta has already said that Stevil is there to get in Pyro's way as much as possible, and he doesn't need the earnings like some others so won't be fully cranked. You already have four horses with decent synthetic/turf form in Monba, Cowboy Cal, Halo Najib, and Medjool that at 15/1+ on the morning line all make for far better plays. Plus if Kentucky Bear goes off anywhere near 50/1 he's a great play. Honestly, I think considering the circumstances that Pyro is only about 50/50 to even hit the board.

You are 100% correct about the Pulpits on synthetic. He's by AP Indy and I don't like AP Indys on the fake stuff. I'm hoping Pyro doesn't handle it; will definitely help his price for 3 weeks down the road.

I have to think Pyro has a very
good chance of winning mainly because he
is the best horse. No I would not bet it at
the prices given. And maybe it is a fairly
meaningless race for him other than
a workout. But maybe the horse does
not know this.

So they roll down the stretch, and Shaun B.
feels Pyro telling him lets go. The horse knows what
he is supposed to do. So S.B does not
ask him?