Originally Posted by justindew

Again, toss the race.

Originally Posted by ddthetide

i'm with you. he showed NO guts today at all. he'll never stand up to the bump and grind in a 20 horse field.

Originally Posted by Travis Stone

What is all this toss the race stuff? I'll never understand it.

War Pass did not get an ideal trip from the start today and we learned something about him. If you toss the race, you are completely ignoring the race, and therefore assuming if anything from today's race resurfaces, whether it be trip, pace, break etc., you ignore it, which is foolish.

Originally Posted by The Bid

Declan, if a confirmed front runner whos never been behind a horse in his life misses the break what do you think the plan is? You know you have a horse going to the Derby, would you A) Rush him up and bottom him out trying to win B) Put him between horses and let him get some education C) Just make sure he gets home safe and live to fight another day.

It has nothing to do with how good he is. He lays over that bunch anytime he breaks clean.

Originally Posted by justindew

We didn't learn anything. Are you really gonna start handicapping races based on who MIGHT get bumped at the start?

Originally Posted by Danzig

it happens. coast guard going to be busy picking up all those bridge jumpers.

Originally Posted by Travis Stone

No, because they don't publish that information, but I'll call the folks I know at Equibase and ask them to. :rolleyes:

Bumped or not, it's clear War Pass is not the same horse when he's free and clear on the lead. In the Kentucky Derby, when there is a real likely chance a stretch-out sprinter such as Keyed Entry or Brancusi or Songandaprayer joins the early mix, War Pass figures to have more trouble making the lead, therefore hindering his chances.

If he was sick/hurt today, it becomes a different story. So until then, I'm going upon what I learned in the race today.

Originally Posted by milliam

Somebody revive Beyer and Vietch. Slew can rest easy

Originally Posted by justindew

Horses with his running style are immune to the size of the field. If he breaks, it all comes down to whether or not anyone goes with him and whether or not he can last. If he can go 3/4s in under 1:11 and still be around a half-mile later, it doesn't matter if there are 5 or 50 horses behind him.

Originally Posted by declansharbor[B

]He had ample opportunity to split the foes around the first turn. Good front-running horses overcome bad breaks all the time.[/b]

Now I admit, noone really knows what Zito had planned for him today. For all we know, he could have instructed the pilot to sit right off of the lead, and pounce on the backstretch.

It would be foolish to strain a horse that already has the graded earnings to make the KD gate. But it's also foolish to think that he will have the dream setup in a race like the KD. Adversity faced him and beat him. What lies in the cards for him in future races remains to be seen. Hopefully, he came out of it okay, so that we will have the chance to bump this thread at a later date and you say "I told you so" to me.

Originally Posted by jpops757

he ran last week

Originally Posted by justindew

And I'm saying that all you possibly could have learned is that if War Pass gets slammed at the break in the Debry, he won't win. And I would have conceeded that point all along.

Originally Posted by The Bid

Travis, taking todays race out of the mix how many horses had been inside a length of WP at any point of call in a race?

Suicide is thinking this horse doesnt win by open lengths if hes allowed to break clean

Originally Posted by justindew

War Pass is clearly being held to a higher standard than is appropriate. Handicappers toss entire efforts a million times a day based on things exactly like what happened to War Pass.

Originally Posted by The Bid

Travis, the only way he doesnt get a free and clear trip is when the gate crew doesnt do their job. Hes broke like a rocketship in all other starts

Originally Posted by Cajungator26

R, I think you're putting too much emphasis on the bad break. I think it's a combination of things... bad break, quirky surface that he didn't like, rank (which he has shown he can be in the past) and possibly sore. He didn't look comfortable to me at all (maybe the surface?)

Originally Posted by justindew

So, you equate simply being on the lead with "ideal"? That reminds me of what people used to say about Azeri. "She needs things her own way." Total nonsense. She ran the opening 3/4 in the 2002 BC Distaff in under 1:10, and romped. But she DID need to be on the lead, most of the time. In fact, she NEVER lost a two-turn race when she was sent to the front. Go back and look at the fractions that War Pass has set in his previous races. He has simply outrun everyone from start to finish. "Ideal" would be alone and slow. War Pass doesn't need slow, and may not need alone.

Originally Posted by Travis Stone

I'm not here to argue the definition of ideal, that's not my point, which again, you're totally dancing around.

Originally Posted by justindew

I'm saying that his bad break took him compltely out of his running style and forced him to do something he has no experience doing if he wanted to win.

Originally Posted by justindew

I guess your point is that the race should not be tossed because War Pass still had a chance to win in spite of his bad break. I'm saying that his bad break took him compltely out of his running style and forced him to do something he has no experience doing if he wanted to win. I am also saying there is no reason to predict that this exact same scenario will occur again in the Derby, therefore there is nothing meaningful to be learned by this race today in regard to War Pass. Unless of course you think Zito hoped War Pass would teach himself to stalk and pounce.

Originally Posted by Travis Stone

So let's bring this full circle to my first point, that if you toss this race, you are ignoring what this race taught. But if what I read is correct, you did learn something, so this race did teach you something, and therefore, you're not tossing it. Forgiving his last place finish? That's fine, as I am too. But to just toss it, in my opinion, is ultra-risky.

Originally Posted by kentuckyrosesinmay

They said on TVG that War Pass had not been injured. We will still need to wait a few days to know for sure.

If War Pass was sick or not feeling well like someone said and they knew about it, Zito should definitely not have ran him in this race. That can ruin horses for good. Happened to Belgravia.

I think he didn't like the surface of the track and needs everything to go his way to win. I also still think, as I have said before, that he moved way up in the BC Juvy on the slop.

Originally Posted by Danzig

i seriously doubt that zito would run him had he had any doubts about him physically.

Originally Posted by kentuckyrosesinmay

I doubt it too, but someone else on here said that reports were that War Pass wasn't feeling well. I don't know if it is true or not...

I don't know that much about Zito so...

Originally Posted by 2Hot4TV

Not feeling well was reported on a local radio show hosted by Roger Stein. Roger said today was the day to bet against War Pass because fo the rumor and this was also the last chance to try and rate him in a race.

Originally Posted by ArlJim78

i would argue that it was a very meaningful race, that War Pass is not versatile, needs things to set-up his way in order to perform at his best and cannot pass a horse. If you want to totally discount why thats important information with regard to the derby then all I can say is Good Luck.