Geez.....thanks!

guess I'm clueless

just who are the contenders then may I ask??????????????


We need another forum on this site.... the "Dunce" leader of Knowledge

To be blunt, he's the kind of horse that fools novices. He's a perfectly nice horse. But, in order to perform even moderately well he needs absolutely everything to go his own way. His NW1X win, while visually impressive if you don't really analyze races well, was because of an almost astonishingly good trip, while more than a few others got mediocre rides, and mostly aren't that good. To be fair, he didn't really even run much better, if at all, than the distant second finisher Stevil. Now, as much as I root for Nick, I don't think any of us are clamoring to bet him in the Derby. In the Risen Star he had a fairly easy trip, and unless you want to suggest he didn't like running inside, he was decidedly mediocre versus one complete non-contender, and another solid contender. However, Blackberry Road ran a better race than Visionaire did in the Risen Star, and he's too ludicrous to even discuss. However, the major problem with the rail theory would be that Visionaire has actually proven the opposite....he loves running inside. And then there's the Gotham, where he won because another rider gave a horrendous ride, while his rider gave an outstanding ride. If you take all of this apart you have a horse with massively dressed up form that is subsequently undervalued by people who are completely fooled by his form which belies his ability.

My opinion of this horse isn't clever. He's a 50-1 shot, at the very best, in this year's KY Derby. Wow....I'm really going out on a limb. But, he also exemplifies what is annoying to people who actually understand racing when the KY Derby rolls around. If you visit messages boards you constantly read uninformed opinions based on results, or people's bets which they somehow believe elevates a horse's talent, and while for the most part you laugh it off, sometimes you choose to state the obvious.....even when there is no upside.

So, that's my explanation, and that's how I analyze horses.....by how they perform on the track.

Ok, so who are five contenders (in your opinion) for the "first Saturday in May" ?

Better yet, who are the fast horses on the derby trail?

Good luck getting answers...

I thought Visionaire's Risen Star was his best race because he was taken out of his running style that day and close to the pace. He was really running hard in the stretch of that race.

His GP race didn't show much, and neither did yesterday.

He's not in my top five, but could improve which is why I put the future wager on him. He's better than a lot of these anyway even if he doesn't.

I'm a full time horseplayer. That means I spend at least five or six hours pretty much everyday preparing for races in the future. That doesn't even include the time I spend during each day playing the horses. Who the contenders are for a race in two months that I probably won't even bet is just of no real interest to me. If someone wants to pay me to take the time to give an honest and well thought out answer to your question then they should feel free to contact me. Otherwise......I just don't care.

The bottom line for this particular KY Derby is that if War Pass stays sound and gets the trip/distance then everyone else is running for second. Both are always big ifs in horse racing but I honestly think Stevie Wonder could figure that out about this year's Derby.

I completely disagree. There are three horses at this point that I think would give him a run for his money even at 1 1/8 miles. He may even get beat before the Derby depending on who decides to go up against him. I know one of the ones I am thinking of won't go up against him though for sure before the big dance.

In all of War Pass's races except for his maiden win where he didn't go up against anything special and didn't win by a big margin either, War Pass has always gotten a loose lead. That certainly will not happen in the Derby. I refuse to believe this horse is the second coming of Seattle Slew based on what I have seen from him.

Ok, I'll wait with baited breathe on your selections the first Saturday in May.

I'll use "clueless and blind" underneath War Pass in my trifectas for now ;)

I know you're just joking around, but I'm simply trying to be honest here, and I know you would prefer that to someone patronizing you.

I, on the other hand, prefer to be patronized by Andy.

I see Visionnaire is now a juicy 22-1 in the Derby pool.

He's over 90% to be higher than that on Derby Day even if he makes it.

Pyro is 7:2. Now there's a real laugher. If War Pass falls apart, and he wins his next prep, and makes the Derby, he doesn't rate to be below 3:1.

I would like to give 4:1 on Pyro for up to $5K. It's pretty much an even money proposition in a worst case scenerio and free money the majority of the time. Funny.

full time prime time yo'

Agreed.

I set the over/under on the number of Derby entrants who go off at less than 10-1 at 2.

If that's your opinion then 2 1/2 is the right number.

just how good is pyro anyway? i just have doubts, the more i look at the field he beat yesterday. i thought he looked good doing it, but he should have looked good beating the others who hit the board. visionaires win yesterday is supposed to flatter pyro, but i don't think you can really go by that mess of a race at AQU yesterday...

If you equate Pyro's talent to what Visionaire did yesterday I think it drops him down a peg or two.

Visionaire is 19/1 right now. Hilarious.

Stupid is as stupid does.

Oh yeah. But then I'd get crushed by UNDER bettors, and they would win.

Off the board. Sorry folks.

in visionares defence he wont win the derby..but his ability to close will help him and lets face it..there arent much out there yet..matz had been to the dance and showed some class in not putting chelokee where it did not belong.. preakness ..if he does go.. i would play him under ..

That went a lot lower than I thought it would. Now, even I have to say that you are correct in your assumptions of that. His Gotham race was not good enough to be anywhere close to those odds. Still, Visionaire is not slow.

Hooves gave the best opinion of this horse IMO. I agree with him right now.

I wouldn't. The derby won't fall apart this year. It'll be a speedway.

Add stupid into the superfecta :p

first of all dont agree with me.. second of all your a problematic poster

your opinion means nothing..

i could really be mean to you and make you cry ..but i wont..

Like I will cry from something someone says on a message board:rolleyes:

Your comment the other day was mean in another post. I'm a problematic poster because I don't worship BTW, I don't agree with everything he says, and I'm not afraid to disagree like most others on here. It's easy to follow the crowd, but I don't like to take the easy way out. I'm problematic because I don't call others clueless, idiots (with the exception of one DTer because of his comment the other day), or other various names. I simply state my opinions, and I try not to be derogatory. I give others credit when they are right, and usually take everyone's opinions into consideration.

Good luck trying to make me cry. I don't cry anyway. You would be hard pressed to find someone who is tougher than me.

Oh yeah, and my opinion may mean nothing to you, but several have asked me not to leave, so I won't. I don't back down to bullies anyway.

i have pletcher and zito i believe. explains why i'm mid pack.

In keeping with the week long WWF theme - you sure are the Mick Foley of these parts.

Which version?

Probably the version that got body slammed through the top of the cage by the Undertaker.

on to tacks! :eek: :eek:

I took Monba today at 35-1. I'm throwing out his performance in the FOY, which probably classifies me as "clueless and blind," hence the sunglasses.:cool:

i just saw that pyro moved ahead of war pass in futures wagering.

whatever.

People will probably get a better price on Pyro in the likely event that he can't hold his current form on Kee's polytrack.

Closed at 6.5-1. Pretty generous, IMO. It would have been 6.6-1 without my bet. Sorry! ;>)

--Dunbar

FINAL ODDS IN THE FUTURE WAGER RND 2


1 Blackberry Road David Carroll 30 45
2 Bob Black Jack James Kasparoff 30 49
3 Colonel John Eoin Harty 12 17
4 Cool Coal Man Nicholas Zito 10 26
5 Court Vision William Mott 12 16
6 Denis of Cork David Carroll 15 12

7 El Gato Malo Craig Dollase 15 15
8 Elysium Fields Barclay Tagg 15 17
9 Fierce Wind Nicholas Zito 20 51
10 Gayego Paulo Lobo 20 99
11 Georgie Boy Kathy Walsh 20 20
12 Giant Moon Richard Schosberg 20 67

13 J Be K Steven Asmussen 30 53
14 Majestic Warrior William Mott 20 27
15 Monba Todd Pletcher 30 35
16 Nikkisgoldensteed Robert Hess, Jr. 50 99
17 Pyro Steven Asmussen 6 4
18 Smooth Air Bennie Stutts, Jr. 50 99

19 Tale of Ekati Barclay Tagg 30 47
20 Visionaire Michael Matz 30 19
21 War Pass Nicholas Zito 5 9-2
22 Yankee Bravo Patrick Gallagher 30 41
23 Z Fortune Steven Asmussen 20 33
24 All Other 3YO 10 6

You can get the actual 'will pays' at: http://www.kentuckyderby.com/2008/ne...ce-pool-2-kdfw , and then clicking "final odds" at the bottom of the page.

Among the favs, Pyro is 4-1, War Pass is 4.6-1, and All Others is 6.5-1.

Among the "99-1"'s, Smooth Air is actually 192-1, Gayego is 112.10-1, and Nikki's is 99.20-1.

--Dunbar

kentucky derby future will pays
 

about .com:http://www.kentucky derby.com all others $15.00 pyro $10.00 war pass$11.20 visionaire$41.60 etc etc

Who appears to be the best value in there? To me War Pass, Cool Coal Man and all others look like the value. I'm wondering why Cool Coal Man should be higher odds than Elysium Fields. Could it be his running style or pedigree compared with Elysium Fields? The fact that Zito trains War Pass and may point CCM somewhere else? After reading the FOY recap on drf it seemed like Zito conceded CCM got a great trip and wasn't inclined to point him to the Fla. derby.