Yes

Only one horse will win - lots of future tickets will be torn. And it still is a comical error to not include a horse in the field who could easily take more money than half of the horses in the lineup.

From watching his three races, he makes Great Point look like a fine talent...and Andromeda's Hero look like a superstar.

If he can only toss a figure in the Mid 80's with a great trip - and is getting a lot of hype for it - I'll pass.

I know - but he was loose in a route that day - and outsprinted in his two GP duds.

The number that day at CRC really was solid - there were a lot of routes.

OAKS POOL #1

Prg. # PP Horse Jockey Trainer Wt. Claim $ Equip. Med. ML
1 1 A to the Croft McPeek Kenneth G 121 LA 30-1
2 2 American County Romans Dale 121 L 30-1
3 3 Backseat Rhythm Reynolds Patrick L 121 L 20-1
4 4 Bsharpsonata Salzman Timothy 121 L 30-1
5 5 By the Light Dutrow, Jr. R E 121 L 15-1
6 6 C J's Leelee McPeek Kenneth G 121 L 30-1
7 7 Country Star Frankel Robert 121 BL 8-1
8 8 Eight Belles Jones J Larry 121 L 30-1
9 9 Final Fling Mullins Jeff 121 BL 20-1
10 10 Game Face Pletcher Todd A 121 L 20-1
11 11 Golden Doc A Abrams Barry 121 BL 20-1
12 12 Grace Anatomy O'Neill Doug 121 BL 30-1
13 13 Grace and Power Klesaris Steve 121 BL 30-1
14 14 Indian Blessing Baffert Bob 121 BL 8-1
15 15 Izarra McAnally Ronald 121 BL 50-1
16 16 Jolie the Cat Asmussen Steven M 121 L 30-1
17 17 Proud Spell Jones J Larry 121 LA 12-1
18 18 Pure Clan Holthus Robert E 121 L 12-1
19 19 Rated Fiesty Asmussen Steven M 121 L 20-1
20 20 Sea Chanter Pletcher Todd A 121 BL 20-1
21 21 Tasha's Miracle Sadler John W 121 L 20-1
22 22 Tizaqueena Stidham Michael 121 L 50-1
23 23 Turn Away Frankel Robert 121 BL 20-1
24 24 All Other Three Year Old Fillies Baffert Bob 121 5-2

1/2 and 14...............

I don't know, it is a free $25 and I have to play it, I think he will at least get there...

If you had to play $25 on the wager, one bet, who would you do? I'll consider it, and give you a 10% royalty if it happens, and don't give me no 4/1 shot.....

There is no doubt that he was not overwhelmingly fast as a 2yo, and would need to improve quite a bit to win a G1 Classic, but they all do at this point.
It just seems like a big crapshoot to me right now.
You are absolutely right about him having a very good trip at CD, but Blackberry Road's was pretty good too, and that one saved a lot of ground compared to Anak Nakal who was 4-wide around the second turn.
His pedigree also points to a colt that could certainly improve with both age and added distance. His connections also seem pretty high on him and since he already has the earnings to get in, they can chart whatever course they choose.
I am not going to place a future wager on him, b/c the price probably won't be right, but if I had a free $25 wager like Scav, I think he would probably be the way I would go.
I think the other interesting horse in this futures process might actually be War Pass. His pedigree and running style sure don't look like a Derby winner, but if enough people feel this way - or if they just fall in love with whomever wins this Saturday - might it actually be possible to get a halfway decent price on seemingly the most talented animal in the crop?

Borel had his choice between Turf War and DOC and yes he did Choose to ride turf War in the Southwest Simply stated he thinks Turf War is a better horse.

No he didn't. He (his agent) said it was an extremely tough call but that Turf War already had the earnings to get in so he went with him.

I'm a big fan of Denis of Cork but his last did leave a lot to be desired. The race was really slow but he was 4 wide and did close off a really slow pace to win so it wasn't a total disaster. Looking forward to seeing him in the Southwest where we should learn a lot about him.

Turf War is a better horse because he's a full brother to Grasshopper. :p

I'm kidding of course.

I love Grasshopper but am still undecided on Turf War. He may just be a far better horse on dirt or he may have just benefited from a total pace meltdown in the Delta Jackpot. Of course, I guess those aren't really mutually exclusive so he could be both. Am looking forward to his next start as well but my gut feeling says he will disappoint.

Has it occured to you that Grasshopper has barely lifted his legs outside of Saratoga?

He's barely raced but I liked him long before Saratoga so he must have run well enough somewhere as a 2yo to grab my interest. I think the Travers took a lot of him and they probably brought him back a little quick in the Super Derby which led to them giving him another rest. We'll find out a lot this weekend in the Mineshaft. I think he'll roll but we'll have to wait and see. If he doesn't then your Saratoga theory has some more merit.

Funny Jerry told us Calvin thought Turf War was a better horse right now

as of today there is no horse that I would say is a lock to finish top 3 in the derby.

Zfortune is the most impressive so far on dirt. I dislike his pedigree a lot. IMO he is a product of good training. Horse like that tend to fold when the class is at it its highest. Siphons are prone to be cheap speed, but this one sold for more, and he has the look of a route distance horse under Asmussen.

Cowboy Cal is the other who really caught my eye. How is he going to run on the dirt? How about a few lengths off the pace on the dirt? can he save ground and take a little bit of kickback?

Anak Nakaal looks good as well. Does he have that champion talent? Has shown flashes but appears to still have room to grow.

Court Vision has done nothing wrong. He isn't a runt, but he isn't exactly eye catching...

Then there are a lot of others who have some potential to enter the mix. I would like to see all of them do well, and make for a great prep season

You need to take yourself out of the equation, take a real look at his pps, and see the huge disparity between his performances at Saratoga, and elsewhere.

I can't wait to see Bordeaux Bandit in his next start...

golden yank seems to be getting a lot of attention here at oaklawn. whether warranted or not, i don't know.
maybe chuck could give some insight into that horse, and whether the blurbs i keep seeing on him in the gazette have a reason for existing....

Agreed. The second finisher in his race ran OK on Saturday.

He ran well to break his maiden around two turns at Churchill. His first two races back were at 6 and 7 furlongs which is hardly his optimal distance but he still managed a win and a 3rd place performance. I've already said the Super Derby was probably too quick to come back. If he runs fresh around two turns in the Mineshaft this weekend and doesn't run well then I'm with you on the Saratoga thing. Until then though I don't think we have adequate information to reach that conclusion based on 2yo form and some sprints. And besides, with the lack of G1s for older males, winning the Whitney and Woodward could be enough to win champion older male if a 3yo wins the Classic (see 2007) so there are a lot worse things than to be a Saratoga specialist.

Yep... good to have something to look forward to at this point.

My initial comments were an exaggeration. However, his non-Saratoga races are decidedly worse than his Saratoga races and until he proves otherwise I think he is very much a bet against.

jay you get a "be nice"..anyone that has a scientific opinion that its the CONNECTIONS betting on the last tick..has a vivid imagination.

If Z Fortune ever wins a major race without the benefit of an absolutely perfect trip it will be an upset of major performances. And, quite frankly, let's see him run a good race outside of Louisiana, where horses from the Assmussen barn are running one incredible race after another. Take a look at the LeComte again.....Z Humor had the trip of a lifetime. Is he a nice horse? Maybe, but for anyone to suggest he's been realistically impressive suggests a pretty cursory look at his actual performances. I would like to take the future book price on Icabad Crane against him in this summer's Albany at Saratoga.

The pedigree stuff is funny.

It's hard to take a stand against Asmussen down there.

Same goes for Amoss and Autrey. Seems like those guys could cure cancer if they were doctors.

quote dahoss :
"Despite what you are going to think, I'm really not trying to give you a hard time, but I really don't get this. Z Fortune has been the most impressive horse you have seen on dirt so far? WHat about War Pass?"
This isn't a smartass answer even though you may think it is , but put 2 and 2 together. I didn't mention the horse you mentioned, and I plan to make money on that horse when he loses his first race.

quote dahoss:"I am also thrown off by the pedigree stuff. You dislike it a lot and your reasoning is that horses "like that" fold when the class is at it's highest. Do progeny of Siphon get into stakes races and realize who their daddy is and get slower? Siphons are prone to cheap speed? Seems like a lot of throwing crap on the wall and seeing how much will stick."
Not so much that a siphon will fold (although in general they are kind of mediocre turf sprinters or cheap route speed/mudders) , but that a horse who is moved up by a trainer usually folds at the higher classes. Zfortune is a good Siphon. He cost 4x his sire avg. He was the top siphon price @ 80k. With that Asmussen bridle and the heavily muscled frame he almost looks like a gray Curlin. And right now Asmussen has Zfortune looking like a superhorse. He hasn't shown any weakness yet. Maybe later in the prep season when he goes 9 furlongs, we get to look for signs of stress or weakness. Not convinced that he can rate and win at 10 furlongs, but hasn't shown a weakness yet. He has a good chance of winning the Risen Star.

Visionaire is available on Bodog at 70-1..... Just put down 25 on him

I seem to remember trying to convince people of this BEFORE the Super Derby, and everybody told me I was crazy and that the horse couldn't lose.

The more people that disagree the more likely you are to be right.

GRASSHOPPER is a very talented individual who wiil act on any surface at any track. True the paper implies that his races at Saratoga were better than his others, and they were, but this is one serious colt.

In the Travers he caught the big horse while stretching and picking up MAJOR weight and it was a very humid day. Shipped to CD, then another humid day in Shreveport took a bunch out of him. He has a good chance to get an eclipse this year although he looks plenty short Saturday. BBB

Not that his race on the inner at Aqueduct means much but that just happened to be a perfect trip as well (free and clear through slow fractions on speed-favoring track).

I imagine he'll be exposed this week and is probably not even the best Z pointing to the Derby.

As far as Albany future odds, you just wait to see The Truffle Man go tomorrow, he will vault to the head of the class. I'm gonna see if TheGreek still has him at 40-1.

NT

Considering that this horse has not yet won a stakes race, I think you might be a bit ahead of yourself here.

Grasshopper isn't as good as the public thinks he was vs. SS.
Grasshopper also didn't run as poorly as the public thinks in the Super Derby.

He is a nice horse. He hasn't shown that he is some kind of division leader at all yet, but hey he should be a little stronger this year.
I don't expect him to win the Mineshaft, but he has a shot.

I'd be absolutely shocked if Grasshopper wins an eclipse this year. . .

No kidding. This could also go down as one of BBBs most quotables.

Have you ever been right before a race?

Here's a link to live odds for Future Pool 1:

http://www.kentuckyderby.com/2008/future-wager/odds

Our enlightened racing brethren have already put down a couple thousand dollars on Pyro, making him the 2nd fav among individual interests. I guess they couldn't wait 2 days to see how he does on Saturday.

--Dunbar