I don't think margin of victory is really that relevant of a factor at all. I only brought that up because he used how they finished againt Becrux as the first argument of comparison. I agree that level of competition is one of the biggest factors so in that regard, using Porto Santo is not much different than using Becrux.

In that Del Mar race, I just watched it again and I don't see where Porto Santo's trip was so bad. The rider was riding throughout the stretch. I think had CTL had a better trip and not had to switch from the inside to the far outside in the stretch, he could have won by even more.

Agree with Andy completely with his sentiments regarding the Mile. All you have to do is look at last years race. The winner, Miesques Approval, was nothing special. Never won another Grade(Group) I in his career. He's no where near the same quality horse as Shakespeare.

There is more than one way to look at this.

How long is the list of Group1/Grade 1 winning horses Shakes beat?

terribloe analogy. Monmouth race at 1 1/16 and they tried to rate him well off the pace

That is what makes him a very nice horse.

that was at 1 1/16th mile. kip deville is a much superior horse at a mile than 1 1/16th. he's proven that beyond question 1 mile is his best distance.

i doubt shakespeare has fired his best shot. his first win was a 1 turn mile, which made me question him, and the woodbine race really didn't set up pace wise for him. the race set up much better for kip deville than shakespeare. kip sat comfy on a fair to moderate pace. shakespeare did get the hedge, but he was a ton more horse than the 3 he passed. i doubt any of those 3 could turn the tables on him. just look at the difference between shakespeare and art master in the past two races. shakespeare stepped up markedly from 1st to 2nd out, and you have to think there is more horse there. he looks very good right now. very tough.

i liked kip in the woodbine. i think dehoss and btw could vouch for that, and i was excited how he ran. he got beat by a better horse, a horse that looks special.

oh I also liked Kip in that race, it looked like he was ready to fire a good one. I liked Kip, Shakespeare and Remarkable News. I was leary of trusting Shakespeare more being second start off of that very long layoff. But yes I agree, he was much the best as it wasn't any type of a gift set-up for him.

on the 1 1/16 race at Monmouth, 200 yards more than a mile, less than six seconds. pretty short difference in distance to distinguish and claim a horse much better at one than the other. I agree that distance is not his friend but i don't know that he is that limited that he cant win a race at 1 1/16 miles.

you wouldn't think 220 yards means that much, but just look at his record. it screams, in his instance anyway, that 220 yards means everything.

i see only one 1 1/16 mile race in his pp's, and it was one of his best lifetime figures, as good a figure as all but one of his mile races.

now his 9 and 10 furlongs attempts were disasters, so yeah i do agree that he has limitations.

I don't care how open the rail was. At the quarter pole he was 8 lengths behind on the outside and hopelessly beaten. He ran the last quarter in 22:2.

When you get down to it, its hard to go against the thinking that Shakespeare is flat out better than Kip Deville. But certainly its far from crazy to give Kip Deville a big shot in the BC Mile.

Firstly, it will be his third start off a layoff. After peaking in early spring, his connections tried to kill him at Hollywood, yet mercifully gave him a brief freshening before his return at Monmouth. Quite comfortably, you can tolerate his loss there as a "tuneup".

In the Woodbine Mile, while Shakespeare did surge past him, Kip Deville was pulling clear from the rest of the field and visually seemed to dig in when the winner came up the inside. For all the exuberance over Shakespeare's finish, to me, he merely wore down those horses in the final 1/8th. He seemed to be fastest before the 1/8th pole when he exploded away from Becrux who was rallying mildly at the time.

You can't take away how much ground Shakespeare made up from the top of the lane home, but obviously the Monmouth turf course will have a much shorter stretch. In that regard, Kip Deville has a distinct edge over Shakespeare with his good tactical speed. He will almost certainly get the jump on that rival heading for home.

Finally, if you like to play off of trends, in the most recent BC's, the 2nd tier horses have gotten it done in the Mile. Particularly those with the same sort of tactical speed as Kip Deville, such as Singletary and Artie Schiller.

Shakespeare may finish best in this year's Mile (though he's no cinch given his injury record), but Kip Deville might reach the wire first.