When is he expected to come?

It's not just a couple of guys complaining. Believe that. KY Sasquatch just hit it on the head. Baffert is not complaining because he's not winning. He didn't complain at Hollywood either and most important, both he and Zayat say that they LIKE the track at Del Mar. They both say that in the mornings, the track is fine but that it's how it changes in the afternoons that is the concern. They are complaining more about the consistency of the track, not how fast or slow it is.

whatever the track variation is morning to afternoon, tight or loose, someone is winning those races other than Baffert, and they are dealing with the same circumstances as Baffert and are doing so with less "brilliant" horses than he has. how do they do it?

well...yeah, that's true. and an excellent point.

I think the complainers' argument is that the track--in the afternoon--isn't conducive to having the "fastest" horse win. Of course you can say that the horse that reaches the wire first IS the "fastest," but a very tiring surface may well take more out of a horse that runs hard early. I was very much in favor of synthetic surfaces when it just appeared that tracks either couldn't, or wouldn't, make dirt surfaces safe. But nobody realized that at least some synthetic surfaces seem to be drastically changing "the game." The developers didn't market them by saying "They're safer, and by the way they're so deep and tiring that many of your most popular and expensive breeding lines will be worthless on them." And as for saying "Well, they shouldn't have bought those horses," I don't think anyone could have predicted how Poly was going to play at Del Mar. Apparently it CAN provide a surface which plays more like dirt--so why not do it, at least for now?

Many tracks run differently in the AM than in the afternoon. Even with the dirt here @ DMR it ran differently. So what? Is it time to freak out and change the course for Zayat? Doubtful.

there was another track early this year that they said speed was doomed--right before a 3 yo won gate to wire in a derby prep.

it would be nice if the tracks exhibited no bias, regardless of style of running-and may the best horse win.

as for poly, i've been leery of the change (to put it mildly) and also feel that a good dirt surface would be the way to go...but times are changing.

but if zayat is the only one complaining-and thus far it seems he is--well, he's leaving so that's that. i think the track super handled the disagreement poorly, but as for changing the track due to one owner-that's another story.

del mar is still so early in the going, patience is called for-give every one a little time to figure it out. i think zayat may have jumped the gun, altho no doubt he felt he had a tremendous reason to be upset. you can't please everyone, that remains true!

To be fair, the manufacturers state it requires less or minimal maintenance compared to dirt or turf, I've never seen the mfg. call it, "no" maintenance. For example, they pick manure off it after every race, so it doesn't get mixed in.

I wonder why Arlington poly doesn't have these complaints? It can go from 60 degrees and dry in the morning, to 80 and hot/humid afternoon in Chicago.

Kentucky (regarding Turfway and Keeneland) is terribly foggy and humid in the morning, and hot and dry (or moist) in the afternoon - quite extreme weather during a summer day. In the winter Turfway only lost 4 days this year, I believe (during the ice storm, when you couldn't walk out of your barn, there was an inch of ice on the ground). KEE certainly had enough 2-year-olds go sub-11 seconds on the poly at the training sales.

It's slightly different, it's here, it's not going anywhere.

In the current Thoroughbred Times, regarding current Polytrack Arlington meet through July 15th:

Fatal breakdowns down from 2006: 17 2007: 5
Average daily on track handle: up 23.5%
All source wagering: up 26.2%
Average daily attendance: up from 2006: 7,169 to 2007: 8,619
Average number starters per race: up from 2006: 7.2 to 2007: 8.5

Less fatal breakdowns, handle up, all wagering up, attendance up, field size up ... it's a bad thing for racing?

.

Does anybody have figures on Kee, Turf, Arlington, or even first days of Del Mar, regarding what percentage of horses have won from front, stalking, closing? I've seen some published, can't recall where.

Who are they? TenPtMoveup said he talked to a person who worked horses for John Sherrifs.

The last I saw from AP, it was about 35% closers, 25% stalkers, 20% front end and the rest were pressers.

AP Through July 22:

Closers- 33%
Stalkers 25%
Pressers: 17%
Speed: 25%

Winning Margin:

1/2 length or less: 30%
3/4-2: 34%
2 1/4- 4: 22%
4 1/2+ 14%

Outside: 54%
Inside: 46%

Chalk: 29%
3-1 or less: 48%
7-2 to 9-1: 34%
10-1 + 18%

Average Payoff
Poly: $15.00
Turf: $13.39

More on this story . . .

http://www.drf.com/news/article/87205.html

I see both sides of the fence on this. However, as much as I hate to say it, I think a good amount of the criticism is "crying" -- and that's not meant as criticism.

The bettor is used to, wants, is looking for, etc. -- a bias, pattern, trend, whatever you want to call it. Reliability is something that could be ideal, but it plays both ways. Regardless, does this make handicapping more difficult? It sure does. Of course. But we have to act, react, and adapt to that. It's not the same arguement that Baffert is making -- two different tracks -- nobody bets on "races in the morning" and if you can't see what the works are, mean, and are reflective of, etc., well that's another issue.

The trainer -- is looking for consistency. Sure, in an ideal world, that would be ideal. It's safe, reliable, etc. However, Baffert is taking this arguement to an extreme; or perhaps Zayat is. This is not taking the speed out of the track, or the game. It's a byproduct, not a goal. Cause and effect? Should there be tweaking? OK, but I think in the larger picture, that decision needs to be left to the experts -- or the closest ones to being an expert, and I don't think Baffert or Zayat fall into that camp.

The majority of the trainers and jocks I've spoke with are positive about the surface. Sure, there's a learning curve, a life-cycle, and change is inevitable -- liked, disliked, wanted, or not.

I think Baffert is distorting the real issue here. Talking about "taking the speed out" is somewhat narrow-minded. How does it affect him more than others? Because of the yearlings, 2yo's, etc. he bought? What about other trainers? It's a futile arguement.

The claims of the manufacturers about maintenence, ongoing costs, and everything else is also not the issue here. You can't unring a bell. That's more scapegoat type of excuses to distort or deflect the arguement as well. I don't think that saying "weather was neglected" or not taken into consideration, or anything of the like for that matter, justifies anything.

Eric

Adjusting to Polytrack
By STEVE ANDERSEN
DEL MAR, Calif. - The first two weeks of racing on Del Mar's new Polytrack synthetic surface have left trainer Art Sherman baffled at times on the best way to prepare his horses.

He says the course he trains over in the morning is firmer than it is during the afternoon, when abundant sunshine makes the course more tiring. It has not been an easy transition for a trainer long-accustomed to racing on a speed-oriented conventional dirt track, and it has forced him to change his training style.

"I let them gallop and open up in the last part," he said, referring to a quicker finish during morning exercise. "I'm putting more miles in them. I'm training hard. I'm trying to adapt in how I train. It's been a long process.

"A couple of horses that ran well at Hollywood Park, I thought they'd run well and they staggered in."

Put simply, Sherman wishes the course played quicker, but realizes that is unlikely to occur.

"I've had a couple of different issues," Sherman said. "I think we have two different tracks from the morning to the afternoon. I wish they could tighten it down. If they could tighten it down, that would be the way to go."

Sherman said one adjustment he has made is expecting slower times for workouts and races. He had two horses - All Thee B and Movie Fan - work six furlongs in 1:16.80 on Wednesday morning. On a conventional dirt track, or even a Cushion Track synthetic surface such as Hollywood Park's, that would be slow time, but the time did not concern Sherman.

"That was a decent work," he said. "They would have gone in 1:14 on a different surface. You have to adjust."

Friday, Sherman starts Mike's Trippin in the eighth race, a maiden claimer over 5 1/2 furlongs. Mike's Trippin, winless in six starts, has enough speed to be an early factor. How the 3-year-old will handle his first start on Polytrack is a mystery to Sherman.

Sherman is convinced that Mike's Trippin needs every advantage to win Friday. He fears the track is not conducive to front-runners, which will make it more difficult for Mike's Trippin to win despite the race's short distance.

The modest race is Mike's Trippin's first start as a gelding, according to Sherman, who took the precaution of shipping the 3-year-old from Hollywood Park to Del Mar last week to give him a few extra days of training on Polytrack.

"He's a speed horse," Sherman said. "Maybe by the last race, the track might tighten up."
---------------

Riot, u asked what others? Shirreffs and Sherman to name a couple who have come forward in the past day. As I said, if u know anyone that works around there or anyone that knows anyone, ask. U will come to realize there are others.

In the end the market will tell us if its acceptable to both horsemen and the player, if no one runs and even worse if no one plays then you will see changes.

just train the horses differently

If all you need to do is train them to be slow maybe Elliot Walden will get back into training

It's pointless to resist the change to ploy. I'm looking forward to the NY tracks converting as well as all the others.

A quote in the TB Times from Frank Kirby, ITHA president, "At first, it seemed some of my horses were getting a little tired, so I started training them a little harder. Now, I don't know if you have to train them a little harder. I'm training pretty much the way I always did. The horses who like it, like it; the ones who don't like it, that's another story."

From an exercise-physiology standpoint, btw, it's known that if too many miles are added to a horse in training, it can reduce it's speed.

I think this "new surface" challenge will showcase trainers who are more adept at identifying an individual animals assets and weaknesses, and training an individual animal to top potential. Some animals get by on innate ability, some are brought to new heights beyond expectation due to astute training.

As ArlJim said, someone is winning these races :)

"Needing every advantage" for a win implies to me a horse that isn't a good bet for that win in that race. I think that's less of a track problem (although a muddy track has waylaid many a race-day expectation), than a "horse for the course" or race selection problem.

A horse that could fly for 7 furlongs over a hard, fast track may only be able to reproduce a similar performance over 6 or 6 1/2 without the assistance of the faster track.

Dirt and turf tracks vary widely between different race tracks, all have their own reputations - and as handicappers, we all know that. Some tracks historically have favored front-runners, and allowed them to carry their speed farther than at other tracks, some tracks favor stalkers or even closers.

I think we all know what style California historically is known for :) That's why I'm very interested in seeing what CA horses get on the Derby prep race trail next year - how will they do?

So it doesn't surprise me that some trainers will have some horses that don't do as well on this surface as on another, or on cushion vs. poly, on Keeneland poly vs Arlington, etc. They may have to learn how to spot their horses a bit differently to give the horse the optimal chance to perform to it's best level.

That's why I'm asking who they are. I would indeed like to hear from other trainers that feel this way, details regarding how their horses are doing in training vs. race, etc. But I can't presume what they number.

Slow horseracing is a lot of fun. I enjoy watching good pacers cover the mile in the same time as thoroughbreds.

bob, where did you get this info?

No where special....a program from Arlington last Thursday..Page 17

aww, that's what I thought.
I was hoping to get the same info for other tracks, to compare.

I'd also like to compare it to AP's dirt numbers same time last year. I'm sure they differ, but maybe not as much as other track's dirt to poly conversions, based on what I've been reading about Delmar and saw at Keeneland

Riot,after a quick look at the BRIS summary reports for DMR through July 30, races at 5.5,6.0, and 6.5 furlongs show 65%-70% of the winners being designated as running style E or EP. The two turn races show almost the opposite trend, with P and S horses winning the majority of the races.These numbers for poly only, no turf.

maybe you can find it somewhere on the racing web sites...

Since Zayat and Baffert likes speed horses so much, maybe they should move to Charles Town and Mountaineer..:D

or Monmouth

If you cant adjust to change in today's world, get out. I understand the frustration, but if handle is up... something is working. And I just cant believe the stuff plays totally randomly.

We have a bunch of horses bred for speed and they cost money. That would make me mad if I had invested and spent time in selecting. ANd of course they lost to a so called crappy horse with endurance. Well maybe that horse is not crappy anymore.
We have horses whose worth in the shed might change drastically if more tracks go to artificial. That would make me mad as a breeder.

We have the TC races on dirt, and major tracks in NY and other places still doing dirt... that might get me upset as a handicapper of multiple tracks whose circuits overlap with artificial. Or a long time handicapper whose favorite track just changed surfaces. Make the necessary adjustments. If it is really a crapshoot, stop betting.

But what are you going to do, just cry about it, or adjust. Determining if this is a temporary trend, or a long term thing that will spread to all major tracks including eventually TC races and the BC, is very interesting for the future.

Embrace the change and the uncertanties, or fight the changes to the death because you know they will ruin your all your notions, planning, your sport, your life. What happened to the poor guys that invented Beta tapes... Quit and cry, or keep pace with change.
People on here are using the internet. There are still people who wont get on it, hate it.

so is it just the type of poly track that causes this? monmouth favors speed, but monmouth is dirt...

is speed really dying at del mar, or just zayats speed horses? what are the #'s for del mar (if anyone can look in their program, if they list %'s like arlington does?). is cushion biased at all? does it depend on sun, cloudy? rain, dry?
perception is one thing, reality another. is it a reality that only closers win? if so, where do speedsters go? or do they just rest til hollywood? but is hollywood playing fair?

and what about santa anita, they're cushion right?


sires are known for being milers, turfers, etc--are there any known sires of early speedsters? if so, what does it mean for them, and their owners?

Try this link

http://www.brisnet.com/cgi-bin/edito...cle.cgi?id=318

in the left section of that page, go to the "At A Glance" tab and pick your track. Hope this is what you were looking for....

I was at Del Mar last week, and couldn't believe what that crap looks like up close. It reminded me of the inside of a used vacuum bag.

Anyway, part of the problem when I was there was the quality of racing (Saturday's card was full of low-level claiming races..I could have stayed in MN and watched those at Canterbury). But from what I saw, if you didn't get out of the gate well you were toast. Deep closers had no chance. It was all stalkers and horses coming from just off the pace.

Del Mar is gorgeous, but the racing was mediocre while I was there. The polytrack certainly didn't help.

yet somehow the polytrack gets blamed for this?
its the same Del Mar cards as any year. the daily fare is just sorta average for the reasons you mentioned.

yes it's exactly what I was looking for, thanks

through 8/4

Saratoga dirt;
fav win%, fav itm%, ave win payout, %wire sprints, %wire routes
26%, 61%, $6.38, 17%, 25%

DelMar poly;
33%, 66%, $6.39, 30%, 5%


So far we've heard that at Del Mar because of the polytrack it's totally random, you can't make any sense of the outcomes. Like its some topsy turvy world where you can't apply any rules that handicappers normally would use. Well it would seem that somebody is clued in because so far looking at favorites it is more predictable than Saratoga.

Notice also that the statements that people make about speed not holding up well only applies to routes. at sprint distances speed is doing much better than at Saratoga.

The most unfair tracks are the ones where these horses are breaking down the most.It's not fair to have Baffert's 2 year old stakes horses having their lives ended at Del Mar in August or September.Guys like Baffert and Zayat are responsible for f'n up this breed to begin with.If these damn speed addicts aren't happy,then it's better for the breed (in the long run.) Things happen for a reason,and that's true of the existence of artificial track racing in California.Out here,there was no choice but to do it.Not enough horses could fill the races written.Simple as that.Horses could not stay sound enough on our dirt tracks.The track at Del Mar last year wasn't concrete at all,but the horses were breaking down over that surface too.If less horses die,and less jockeys get hurt (on artificial,) then that's the type of surface to be using.Those who feel otherwise have got some pretty crappy motives involved.If you have a dirt track that's as safe(and horses can stay sound on) then great.We are all a little too tolerant of the word "euthanized."

And if your horse doesn't like turf or artificial,then that horse needs to live out his life in peace.However,those genes need to start being excluded from this breed.Keep doing that,and you'll have a great thoroughbred breed.