I just am looking at the pp cj provided, but I do remember hearing the call on the radio a bunch and it sounded like she dug in gamely after being passed?

she sat 2 lengths behind the leader and passed her at the quarter pole. Relaxed nicely off the pace

Wasnt she also sick or something to complicate matters?

If I can get 6-1, there will certainly be a trip to the ATM in my future.

We will all find out on Wed...

I'm mostly going to be playing a few small bets throughout the day, and am just going to enjoy getting to be there to share the day with the owners -- but oh my, if the price is right, with the way those she's been running against have been coming back, I'll see you in line :D

Sumwon always finds a future Stakes horse to run against regardless of purse or condition. She is the class and speed of this race. However, there are question marks. I would bet that she will be the favorite when the odds are first posted then drift up to 2-1 or if we are lucky 5/2.
Anyone that leaves her out of the exacta is taking a huge risk.

I believe she will try her best - especially if the weather cooperates.

weather will cooperate. should be partly cloudy and alot cooler and less humid. Storms now that will end tomorrow, then clearing out and cooling off.

I also see Sumwon settling in the second flight (if Classic Tiara stays in, Sumwon might not have a choice), and making her move when Gazzella moves. If there's anyone she's willing to settle in that way for, she's likely willing to do it for Willie. If it's her and Gazzella halfway down the stretch, Sumwon outfinishes Gazzella if Sumwon's on her game. And the fact that Chuck thinks that she got something out of her last work reassures me on that front, despite the lay-off.

As far as post-time odds, I agree with Wingnut. I think bettors eyeballing the pps will be looking for a little value as an alternate to the lukewarm ml favorite -- Sumwon's pps certainly stand out for that purpose -- and they then pound her down to 5-2.

Might do some saver exotics, but for me, for this race, it will be mainly exotics with SWLY on top and a hefty win bet.

First, I would like to say thank you to all involved for arguing constructively, well done by all. 2ndly, Arljim is NUTS to think you are getting 4/1 on this horse, 5/2 off odds my friend, probably close to being favored. People will be playing Makers and Pletchers horse but I think Sumwon is 2nd favored, especially when people see who she has been running against. I GUARANTEE Liane Davis makes a point of it. She is sharp like that. Maybe I will convince her not to say a word about Sumwon. 3rdly. She will not be on the lead, I, with 100% certainity will say that she will be sitting 3rd or 4th right off the pace and get first run. She did the same exact thing with an inside post last time, and now she is going to great position and the opportunity for first run.

Now, this will all change if they get nuts up front and everyone wants the lead, where she is hung 5w. The best situation is that there is the common three horse speed duel up front where she is sitting two lengths back and gets first run, which is possible. Ideally, and this might be a long shot, but I have seen Earlie gun horses before that have no business on the lead, because the favorite is sitting outside of him, wants to hang them wide, it would be GREAT if he guns his horse in this race and hang Gazella 3w the whole time.

She is not the speed in this race at all, what are you guys missing from her last race. Chuck has TAUGHT THIS HORSE TO RATE. She is a midflight horse now.

ok, I know she won't have the lead but she is still faster than everyone else in the race

first you thank everyone for arguing constructively, then in the next breath you call me nuts?

read my post, I said she'll be 3 or 4 to 1. You say she'll be 5/2. So 2.5 to one is sane, but 3/1 is nutty?

There are a few unknowns in this race. I hesitate to put my retirement on her. Npw if she were to go off at her M/L I would put my paycheck on her. The risk vs reward would be enough then.

Willie should know a thing or two about Queen of the Ridge...He used to ride her so maybe he knows what she will do. I would hope that Gazella presses that one while Willie walks on by at the top of the stretch and pulls away by oh...3 at the 1/16th pole. :D

Point, go to racereplays and watch her last two races, they are very interesting. In the last, she proves she's a race horse (very gutsy, you really should see this), in the one previous you can see Willie rate her, and she responds very kindly, down the back stretch.

I love my TG's, but watching the races tells you what you really need to know, sometimes.

Agree that there are a few unknowns. And for SWLY's past races, I've bet more conservatively, style-wise, though I'll be betting about the same here as in the past in terms of total amount. Also, I'm certainly not one to play hunches, but looking at these pps, I can just see this race unfolding with a win. It's not blind optimism, it's recognizing that Chuck has put our girl in the best position so far, imo, for that win.

LOL, you were the one swearing up and down last time that she would go to the front, when I told you the 6 would get the lead.

Scherer entry - both turf to dirt (poly) angle, either capable, using underneath in tri's & super's.
Powder River - along time between drinks for this one, steps back up in class, doesn't look a factor here...not using.
Miss Peachtree - even race last time out and may have needed it, no early foot...but could land a piece, using in all exotics.
Lady Eloquence - stretches out for the first time, two efforts here were good, could be the longshot to using underneath in tri's & super's.
Pure Classy - this one scares me the most because of connections, could see her running late if the pace is quick, can see her 2nd or 3rd choice...include in all.
Green Door - showed speed in maiden breaker going a route, don't think she'll improve much more off that effort...super's only.
Bid on Dancer - the "rank outsider", "not in this lifetime".
Gazzella - the likely favorite, the horse to beat...but with price - would try to beat her even if Sumwon wasn't in the race.
Sumwonlovesyou - speaks for herself...both on and off the track!

The plays -
Sumwonlovesyou #9 - "heavy" on the win end.
Gazzella #8 / Pure Classy #5 / Miss Peachtree #3 - all in the "2" hole
Scherer entry #1 (either half) / Lady Eloquence #4 - rounding out top #3
Green Door #6 - in super's only

9/8/5 - 9/8/5/3- 9/8/5/3/1/4/ - 9/8/5/3/1/4/6

you are nuts...but that isn't attacking you like old school happenings.

She will open up at 1/2 and drift up to 2/1.

Don't get your panties in a bunch my friend, I'll slap you silly with my arlington program on wednesday

enough of you and your ridiculous memory. Please don't tell me you are keeping a notebook of every poster's opinions and trends

win 9
ex 9 w/ 3,8
tri 9 w/ 3,8 w/ 1A(only),2,3,7,8
saver ex: 3,8 w/ 9

Not afraid of the 5, think she will be too far out of touch with the early pace and not be able to make it up, even with her late run.

lay off the pipe man, she won't be 2:1.
the 8 was 6:5 last time and the five is an Assmussen horse that finished right behind the 8 last time so should take some money.
i think 4:1 is very possible, if not higher.

so, if you won $1,000 playing poker last weekend would you then take that $1,000 and put it all on Sumwon's nose or whimp out and bet $400 to win and $600 to place
when you normal don't bet more than $300 on an entire weekend

Not a chance. Not with that 83 BSF staring people in the face and not with the DT contingent pounding her down.

2-1 or 5-2.

Exactly. This is what I meant when I said her pps will stand out.

Who you talkin' to, Willis?

just posing the question

Don't bet more then you can afford :)

Then you obviously didn't see her last race, because Humble Janet passed her and she then passed Humble Janet back in the stretch after she changed her lead and almost got to Le Chateau. Humble Janet went on to finish 2nd in a GIII and Le Chateau 4th in the same race. And two back, after Girls Pearls passed her and looked to be flying home and opening up, Sumwon made up ground in the stretch and closed the gap coming back at that winner. Girls Pearls went on to win a stakes race. Neither is reflected in the PP's.

I am surprised that the Pletcher is favored over her as Sumwon appears to me to be the choice here, although not a surprise that people will jump on a Pletcher. I do have to say she may need a race in her and the surface is a a bit of a question mark for her, but I would love to see her go off third or fourth choice. Just think the bettors are smarter than that.

sounds a lot like TP poly track. Speed does well when you add water. The hotter it gets, the slower it gets.

LOL!

I see in tomorow's DRF that Sumwon is the consensus pick at Arlington for race 8.

In my humble opinion, this race appears to be a 2 horse race. #3 Miss Peachtree figures to improve after the long layoff and race on this track. Last 2 works look OK too. #9 Sumwonlovesyou has the best Beyers and has shown to not be affected by poly. Assuming her sickness and missing a few days of training doesnt affect her, she should be right there gutsy as usual. Pletchers horse #8 Gazella seems a notch below and would not be getting this attention if not for being trained by Pletcher and ridden by RR. I'll pass. I'll probably be playing the 3,9 exacta and maybe triples keying the 3,9 with the 7 and 9. I know I'm not really going out on a limb here, with my picks, but atleast going against the ML favorite. Lets go SUMWON!

I think Merrill Sheers horse Queen is very live. Otherwise I think you guys win. Good luck.

Chuck you said 3 months ago everyone thought she was overmatched in a 50 claimer at Churchill. She was. Shes a much better horse now than she was 3 months ago.

Agree with CJ and you. As a customer of CJ's figs for years, I have tried to adapt his using the combined philosophies of TGRAPH and Cary Fotias of "Blinkers Off".

Her's my take on the Race with projected CJ performance figs:

2 P 75 Pairs up the previous poly fig.

3 P 84 First out in '07 runs a poly 78, should improve 2nd off 5 week freshner

1 E 78 Runs a consistant high 70's fig. Not good enough in this race.

4 EP 76 Ran a triple top on 5/19, bounced back to a 64. Never has run a route. Toss

1A E 81 Ran a New Pace Top last out on turf and paired up perf fig last out. Running the route last out helps with conditioning. Only neg is there is so much speed, E front runners will get cooked with 2 inside E horses and SWLY on her outside gunning for lead.

5 PS 73 Runs consistant low 70 poly numbers TOSS.

6 EP 82 Ran a triple top last out, normally a toss, but young horse with proper time off, I think she'll pair up that last out poly 82 and might keep upward improvement.

7 PS X TOSS

8 EP 80 Ran 4 straight improve PF figs. Small incremental improvements tell me improvement still possible to new top. Likes poly and route fitness a plus.

9. E 80 Has shown she needs to be at the lead or within a length be ITM. But there's a ton of E and EP racers here who might cook the speed horses down and set it up for closers. Outside draw doesn't help, but her 80 and nice improvement line is enough to keep in exotics. Will be rooting for her as always.

1. #3 4th place
2. #6 WON Pays $19.40
3. #1ASCR
4. #9/8 9 PLACE/8 SHOW

6-9 Ex pays 74.40
Tri Pays $218.40
Super pays $761.50 CJ Figs!

r

you know me from cj's board as well, in fact I posted a poll about circuit speed bias today. I have an anonymous handle here.

Her last race showed that she doesn't need the lead. She doesn't like to take way back but she doesn't need the lead. I think there is maybe 1 horse that is going to the lead and it ain't Sumwon. I picture Pletcher's horse pressing that one. Maybe it will be Sumwon doing that but as I have mentioned before she has run faster and is the class of the race. Her last two she really showed a lot of heart.

Hopefully she was able to get some rest after her trip and is ready to go. She could win by 3 :D

That last race though was as candy and off the pace effort as you will find, she was able to sit a clear unpressured second and get a clear run at the lead. I think she topped out Beyer wise, she cant and wont improve on that with this setup. As a player arnt we suppose to discredit perfect trip beyers and give more credit to tougher trip beyers?

That's funny, my dogs all get to barking while I'm yelling, they know something is happening, it becomes pandemonium.

1st race...I though early speed would hold but E and EP's just got closed out in final strides. Hoping E/EP's can hold on in the 8th race today!:D

well, i figure she's a catholic dog, as she has that guilt thing down pat.


i used to watch hockey a lot--had a beagle that would start howling when the organ would start up and we would yell charge.