Because the Santa Anita Derby is going to be the G1 that Ravel has the best chance to win.

She gains very little for them by winning the Santa Anita Derby. Plus, it looks like the weakest prep, so therefore it suits their plans for Ravel quite well. If he were to somehow win that race he has already done enough for them in all likelihood.

Remember, they just retired their best 3YO in Europe.

If the choice was running the two of them against each other, I would agree with u. But if they are only going to run one, run the best one. Send Ravel somewhere else.

I agree with u that it's ridiculous to say he'd have to step up because he's only a grade three winner and she's a grade one winner. He'd be a grade one winner if he could have faced the fields she faced too. I think he'd have to step up and improve simply because he's not as good as her. I don't think she'd have to improve to win the SA Derby though.

I don't know about that. I don't know what the Wood and the Blue Grass fields will look like. Sightseek says they are loaded but I just don't see that at all.

The Wood won't be fantastic but they are already looking to get another G1 for Circular Quay in that one to be able to add "Grade 1 winner at 2 and 3" to the stallion ad plus there is Nobiz to Shobiz that is still scaring some trainers off. The Blue Grass is loaded including Street Sense, Great Hunter, Ketchikan, Belgravia, Any Given Saturday, and Twilight Meteor. All but Ketchikan are proven on the poly as well while Ravel isn't.

You've got Circular Quay in the Wood (and Nobiz if the blinks help) and Street Sense & Any Given Saturday in the Bluegrass, do you think he can beat them?

Twilight Meteor is doing both the Lane's End & Bluegrass?

I don't think he can beat CQ. I do think that Street Sense and AGS are ripe for the taking in their next though. Ketchikan is not a threat, Belgravia hasn't run since he was born and I've never heard of Twilight Meteor. But with the change in surface, perhaps it is best to keep him here and run in the SA Derby. It probably will be the easiest of the races. It's just going to be a shame when they hold Rags out and run Ravel and he loses and they don't win the race at all.

Assuming he runs well in the Lane's End that was their plan.

LOL, glad you shared this tid-bit now....all's fair in love and TVG Fantasy! :p

He's the best 3yo turf horse and will be running on the polytrack at Keeneland. Does that tell you all you need to know?

If he's a turf horse, that tells me he'll take to the track. But I still don't know anything about him. Never heard of him. I'll need to check on him.

I like that progressive logic you used in your post.




I associate it with that great rythmic line....








...There's an arrow in my arm.

That tells me there's an arrow in my arm.

I don't like it..

...and it hurts.

I'm going to take it out.

Pletcher horse, won the off the turf/onto the poly $125K Bourbon at Keeneland last year and then the $100K Hallandale Beach race on 2/24.

Even though i belive ravel is overated and is coming out of a bad race, i still think he'd beat rags to riches at this point, she is very talented and has every right to improve but i think ravel would beat her

" The best 3YO turf horse " is not exactly a ringing endorsement at this point...not that you in any way suggested it was.


If he wins the Bluegrass it will immediately establish it as the most meaningless prep in history ( and, as we have both posted the same things throughout this thread, you probably will agree ).

I'll agree too. And it's only going to get worse when grass horses start winning "dirt" races on a regular.

It's a problem.

Personally I am sick about the polytrack at Keeneland, as I loved attacking that Spring meet in the past, and have done OK over the years. Now I am totally at sea and cannot bet money on anything but the turf races with any conviction. I guess I should at least try and educate myself.

It's a Yeoman's task.

I was actually looking through the brisnet PPs of all the contenders to see which had high turf pedigree figures because of how little there is to the 3yo turf division right now. The couple that jumped out to me that haven't run on the turf yet were Hard Spun and Boogie Boggs. You might have to let Nick know there is a lot of money to be won on the turf this summer with Boogie Boggs (although I'm sure he is aware).

If Twilight Meteor and Belgravia were to run well enough in the Lane's End/Blue Grass to get the graded earnings we could have two horses making their first dirt start in the Kentucky Derby. So yeah, the Blue Grass being on poly is not only becoming a meaningless Derby prep but is also making capping extremely difficult for the Derby. Fortunately we have Kentuckyrosesinmay on here to let us know how the horses move over the dirt so we'll be all set.

Also, wasn't the Blue Grass already the most meaningless Derby prep? Don't horses who ran poorly in it previously have much better success in the Derby than the ones who won it?

biancone has very nice 3 yr turf horse.... the name is, well i forgot the name but he ran Nov, 25 on that stars of tommorw card that churchill ran, he actually beat a pletcher horse and it might have been Twilight Meteor.

I hated the old Keeneland track so don't mind the poly there. It makes for an interesting meet twice a year to see how various horses run on the stuff. The races are more exciting and I didn't find the capping particularly difficult from the 4 to 5 cards I capped there last fall. I don't like how it is spreading to so many other tracks though and I don't like a major Derby prep being run on it.

The problem, for me at least is two-fold. No doubt the bias on the dirt made playing problematic, but I was VERY careful there, and things worked out usually. But, the bias was sensational for trips leading into Churchill and sometimes even Belmont, and THAT is the edge that could be super profitable.

That is a significant loss.

I agree with you there although it still amazes me that more people betting significant amounts of money couldn't have figured out that angle. Of course now you have people betting turf horses on the dirt off wins on poly so I guess there are other angles to be found. The thing is so many serious horseplayers are showing such a resistance towards learning the surface that there are probably loads of angles to be unearthed.

Here's the problem, when horses are trying a surface for the first time, as many are, it is very hard to trust, financially that is, form from another surface. Look, technically you are absolutely correct, as if we believe we are clever enough to decipher races better than most, we should be able to crack this case, as one of my most psychotic friends likes to say. However, I just feel like there is too much guessing involved, and I don't like to risk me money on that.

However, I need to at least do the work and see how my thoughts work out and what I can learn. I HAVE to do that. It's only a 15 or 16 day meet ( depending on Easter ) so I think I can manage to find the 50 hours or so to do the work.

My apologies for turning this into an interview, but I've always been curious about handicapping for a living (not that I'm quitting my day job). How much time do you spend a day capping and does it ever feel like "another day at the office" where you just don't have interest to do it?

You a pirate?

I hear you on not wanting to risk the money. Definitely seems like it makes sense though to do the capping and find the angles even if it means 50 hours of work without placing a wager.

*Shaking head*

You guys are seriously funny tonight. LOL LOL

Oh, I'll place wagers, just not relatively significant ones.

Work is work. I find a lot of the racing work fascinating at times, and drudgery at other times, but you sort of develop a routine and try to stick to it. I'm a little burnt right now. I did both NY and Gulfstream since the beginning of the year, and with the amount of work I do, that's a lot. So, right now I feel a little crispy. But, if you're winning especially, it's OK.

To tell you the truth, I've been doing it for so long, even when I was working downtown, that it seems unnatural not to do the work.

I liked the pirate joke.

Thanks for answering my question, this will be great material for my up-coming book; "Don't Wake Me at 9 am and other Derby Trail Tales" :D

Doesn't matter, as there is work being done on the exterior of my building for the next three months on my side. Right now they are right outside my bedroom, hammering and jackhammering starting at 9am everyday.

I'm a little grumpy about it. OK.....more than a little grumpy about it.

Stop making me smile. :)

I'm pretty pleasant...but that would pretty much send me over the edge even if I was already awake.

Honestly, and believe me I realize most people have things much tougher than I do, but it's f'n brutal. I was working at my desk today, and the window is RIGHT next to me, and there were two dudes on my ledge. They were moving my screen.

I am unpleasant ...and that would make me go postal

Yeah, F that...

I'll never understand why they can't pick a better freaking time to do shiat like that.

No question....I'd loose it.

I can't stand repetative noises I have no control over. We have an attorney who chews his gum so loudly I can hear it all day long and it takes every last bit of my being to not freak on him.

My super, not that I blame him, thinks it's a riot.

ravel ia a monster in the making......my god, a freaking blind man can see it;)

But tell me how the son of a bitch moves!!!!

I have to assume that much of the hype surrounding this colt is pedigree-related.
Based on performance alone, he probably doesn't belong in anyone's top-5 derby horse lists. However, anytime a colt that is by FuPeg and out of a graded-stakes winning AP Indy mare wins ANY Derby prep, there is going to be more hype than there would be (and perhaps should be) for some horse with a different pedigree.
I put him on my top5-list in part for this reason. I don't think he is one of the top five 3yos in training right now overall, but in terms of having the ability to get 10f effectively, I think he is perhaps more likely to do that than others who may be more talented at say......8.5f.
Am I right? Who knows.