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-   -   My Derby Top 10 (http://www.derbytrail.com/forums/showthread.php?t=71048)

freddymo 05-04-2022 11:35 AM
Quote:
Originally Posted by Dahoss (Post 1163967)
I don't think battle is the word I'd use. He stalked Forbidden Kingdom comfortably and went by him pretty easily around the turn.

Taiba was only another 2 lengths back. So if he was able to sit close and outfinish Messier after just a 6F race, how is Messier going to beat him this time? And I don't like Taiba at all.

Like I said...I have no idea what to make of Messier. :zz:
The best horse in the KD is Taiba. I don't think he should have been in this position that said he is.

cakes44 05-04-2022 11:42 AM
Other than Epicenter, I think just about every horse has major knocks against.

I'm taking a shot with Crown Pride in this race and focusing more time/$$ on the undercard.

Alabama Stakes 05-04-2022 02:20 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by moses (Post 1163959)
I am coming around on Cyberknife a bit. I keep thinking how Mandaloun was training leading up to the Derby and he put a great race in. Cyberknife sort of has that feel to me. On the flip side, I think I’m completely out on Zozos. I just can’t get past his pedigree, even if he was able to go 1 3/16 in Louisiana, I just don’t see the pace playing out that way. Tawny Port interests me a bit though as they wheeled him back in two weeks and he did not disappoint.

No love for Messier? I haven’t decided if I think he can effectively rate. If he gets involved in the early pace with Summer is Tomorrow and Classic Causeway and anyone else, I don’t see him winning and that probably sets up one of the closers if they can make out a good trip.
Do you have concerns that Cyberknife’s last 3/8 was 39 1/5 and Mo Donegal ran His last 3/8 in 35 2/5 ? If not, why not ?

moses 05-04-2022 02:36 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by Alabama Stakes (Post 1163983)
Do you have concerns that Cyberknife’s last 3/8 was 39 1/5 and Mo Donegal ran His last 3/8 in 35 2/5 ? If not, why not ?
Sure. To be honest, I still have Mo Donegal way above Cyber Knife.

Dahoss 05-04-2022 03:26 PM
Always a good idea to compare times from different tracks and different days. Solid handicapping there. Because as we all know, each track is the same and the day doesn't matter.

I'm also shocked to find out a dead closer runs faster late than a horse who is close to the pace.

I'm learning so much.

Alabama Stakes 05-04-2022 03:38 PM
Where are 20 lengths faster not way faster ? Which track has that much of a disparity ? Cyber knife has no chance.

Dahoss 05-04-2022 04:07 PM
That was some rebuttal.

Well I'm changing all my bets now.

Next compare turf and dirt times. This is some real next level stuff you've uncovered.

Alabama Stakes 05-04-2022 04:12 PM
Mo running sub 12 cyber knife running +13’s . Mo never finishes behind Cyber Knife.

Dahoss 05-04-2022 04:35 PM
If he does you should be permanently banned from here

hi_im_god 05-04-2022 06:46 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by Alabama Stakes (Post 1163983)
Do you have concerns that Cyberknife’s last 3/8 was 39 1/5 and Mo Donegal ran His last 3/8 in 35 2/5 ? If not, why not ?
Any worries about the trip for a closer in a 20 horse field? The last Remsen winner I bet in the Derby was Saarland. Similar style. It didn’t end well.

Alabama Stakes 05-04-2022 08:07 PM
Great analogy… Mo is ridden by a jock who finds holes or creates them himself. This will be similar to Creator in the Belmont. For the $180,000 share he will get. He will figure out a trip.

hi_im_god 05-04-2022 08:53 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by Alabama Stakes (Post 1163994)
Great analogy… Mo is ridden by a jock who finds holes or creates them himself. This will be similar to Creator in the Belmont. For the $180,000 share he will get. He will figure out a trip.
You could be right. Saarland’s jock was a slow starter in triple crown races but found his footing eventually.

Good luck.

Dahoss 05-04-2022 08:58 PM
Irad definitely found the right trip last year when he broke from the rail on another Pletcher trainee.

Alabama Stakes 05-04-2022 09:23 PM
It Will be more of a Creator ride. Remember that one ?

cakes44 05-05-2022 03:41 AM
Quote:
Originally Posted by Alabama Stakes (Post 1163999)
It Will be more of a Creator ride. Remember that one ?
When he finished 13th?

Conrad 05-05-2022 06:40 AM
I read yesterday that Asmussen is on a losing streak of 70+ races in the state of Kentucky, and I like Epicenter :eek:

He was 0 for Turfway, 0 for Keeneland, and so far is 0 for Churchill this meet. Kind of makes you wonder, eh?

Sometimes I hate all this damned information

Dahoss 05-05-2022 07:08 AM
Quote:
Originally Posted by Conrad (Post 1164008)
I read yesterday that Asmussen is on a losing streak of 70+ races in the state of Kentucky, and I like Epicenter :eek:

He was 0 for Turfway, 0 for Keeneland, and so far is 0 for Churchill this meet. Kind of makes you wonder, eh?

Sometimes I hate all this damned information
That’s very interesting. Goes back to Keeneland last fall when he was 1 for the meet.

Considering he will very likely have the favorite in the Derby and Oaks, something to consider.

jms62 05-05-2022 07:26 AM
Asmussen is an eye popping 1/18 for (29.40) in Graded Stakes at CD since 01-01-21 and 0-6 in GRADE 1 races.

Conrad 05-05-2022 07:34 AM
I suppose we're all thinking the same thing in regards to why he's so cold in Kentucky...it's got be something more than just a streak of bad luck.

jms62 05-05-2022 07:35 AM
Quote:
Originally Posted by Alabama Stakes (Post 1163990)
Mo running sub 12 cyber knife running +13’s . Mo never finishes behind Cyber Knife.
Who needed to run harder? Mo checks my boxes and would be my main pick if he didn't draw the one hole. Still he will be on a ticket or 2. If you are all in there good Luck..

You (We) are bucking

Ferdinand (1986)
Funny Cide (2003)
Fu Peg (2000)

Trends end however betting on them ending is a different story.


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