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-   -   5/2 (CD): 141st Kentucky Derby (G1); 6 Graded Stakes Undercard (http://www.derbytrail.com/forums/showthread.php?t=57097)

freddymo 04-30-2015 10:22 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by philcski (Post 1024543)
Wow, how good is that 4th race?

Isnt Carve going to get a honey of a trip behind Bradster and Rocket Time? almost Famous has a bit a of a look second off bench

Rudeboyelvis 04-30-2015 10:56 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by brianwspencer (Post 1024652)
I wouldn't put much stock in that -- the splits seemed, if anything, a touch on the quick side throughout the day compared to most days there, and Stanford set the slowest half-mile split of the day. Even accounting for the longer 9f trip, it seemed pretty soft, considering that LA-bred horses going two turns were clocking :47.4 and :48 flat when those types would consistently go :49 or slower most days of the meet.

Not making figs and such, there is obviously room for error in the above opinion, but at no point on that whole card did I get the feeling that things were playing slowly -- if anything, a bit in the opposite direction, if that's worth anything.

I should have qualified that more clearly - I didn't find the track to be souped up like many big racing days - it was more fair than anything - so relative to what I had expected it, it seemed to me to be on the slowish side of fair. But again, that was just my impression, the first time ever being there live - I certainly appreciate your perspective.

I would suggest that it's difficult to gauge Stanford's half mile split against the day as he was essentially handed a very easy lead from the break. He seems to me to be a horse that wants no part of anything more than a mile, and may even better suited as a pressing-type sprinter - Can't blame the connections for taking a shot - they earned it - but also had to envision him not finishing close to last either...

brianwspencer 04-30-2015 11:19 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Rudeboyelvis (Post 1024669)
I should have qualified that more clearly - I didn't find the track to be souped up like many big racing days - it was more fair than anything - so relative to what I had expected it, it seemed to me to be on the slowish side of fair. But again, that was just my impression, the first time ever being there live - I certainly appreciate your perspective.

I would suggest that it's difficult to gauge Stanford's half mile split against the day as he was essentially handed a very easy lead from the break. He seems to me to be a horse that wants no part of anything more than a mile, and may even better suited as a pressing-type sprinter - Can't blame the connections for taking a shot - they earned it - but also had to envision him not finishing close to last either...

Got ya, and I totally agree on all counts.

A couple of early races were super fast early for the level, but all in all even if the track was playing a bit "fast," it was definitely not as fast as you'd often expect from a track on a big day. Maybe a few lengths faster than normal, but still slow in relation to what you see in some other places.

TouchOfGrey 04-30-2015 11:45 AM

Pletcher's Stanford 50/50 for Derby

ateamstupid 04-30-2015 01:15 PM

Stanford out, Frammento is in. First time the '21' saddlecloth will be used since they capped the field.

MaTH716 04-30-2015 01:29 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by ateamstupid (Post 1024702)
Stanford out, Frammento is in. First time the '21' saddlecloth will be used since they capped the field.

OK, I now have to move the X I had through Stanford in to Frammento's column.

knickslions2 04-30-2015 01:48 PM

Frammento is a good superfecta add on. Stanford was going to be pace factor for sure and probably finish near last.

casp0555 04-30-2015 01:53 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by ateamstupid (Post 1024702)
Stanford out, Frammento is in. First time the '21' saddlecloth will be used since they capped the field.

and AP moves to the winless post 17...........

pmayjr 04-30-2015 01:53 PM

who gets the mount? Nakatani?

Rudeboyelvis 04-30-2015 02:52 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by ateamstupid (Post 1024702)
Stanford out, Frammento is in. First time the '21' saddlecloth will be used since they capped the field.

Lavender, with dark blue numbers/letters


Port Conway Lane 05-01-2015 12:04 PM

Projected derby favoritism based on the oaks derby double payout per dollar from #7 in first leg
American Pharoah28
Dortmund40
Frosted86
Carpe Diem91
Firing Line95
Mubtaahij110
Materiality117
Upstart148
International Star195
American Pharoah and Dortmund are clearly 1 and 2.
Frosted projects to be a close 3rd choice over Carpe Diem
Firing Line and Mubtaahij currently have a clear edge over Materiality
Upstart figures a slight edge over International Star.

robfla 05-01-2015 12:13 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Port Conway Lane (Post 1024911)
Projected derby favoritism based on the oaks derby double
American Pharoah
Dortmund
Frosted
Carpe Diem
Firing Line
Mubtaahij
Materiality
Upstart
International Star
American Pharoah and Dortmund are clearly 1 and 2.
Frosted projects to be a close 3rd choice over Carpe Diem
Firing Line and Mubtaahij currently have a clear edge over Materiality
Upstart figures a slight edge over International Star.

MUBTAAHIJ is getting a lot of double money for his odds

Port Conway Lane 05-01-2015 12:30 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by robfla (Post 1024917)
MUBTAAHIJ is getting a lot of double money for his odds

Yeah, I guess he's the wiseguy horse.

FATPIANO 05-01-2015 12:39 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Port Conway Lane (Post 1024911)
Projected derby favoritism based on the oaks derby double
American Pharoah
Dortmund
Frosted
Carpe Diem
Firing Line
Mubtaahij
Materiality
Upstart
International Star
American Pharoah and Dortmund are clearly 1 and 2.
Frosted projects to be a close 3rd choice over Carpe Diem
Firing Line and Mubtaahij currently have a clear edge over Materiality
Upstart figures a slight edge over International Star.

where can I find these double prices? thanks

Port Conway Lane 05-01-2015 01:17 PM

Any ADW should have them. I use twinspires.
Here is a link to current derby odds, little help at this time with the small pool.
http://www.kentuckyderby.com/racing-...erby-live-odds

Sightseek 05-01-2015 01:26 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Port Conway Lane (Post 1024947)
Any ADW should have them. I use twinspires.
Here is a link to current derby odds, little help at this time with the small pool.
http://www.kentuckyderby.com/racing-...erby-live-odds

:eek: Wow, some interesting odds there so far.

outofthebox 05-02-2015 11:44 AM

Competitive edge sparkling mile..Quality colt..Met mile?

Dunbar 05-02-2015 11:59 AM

With 7.3 million in the win pool, AP is 3.3-1. Dort is 4.4-1.

--Dunbar

Sightseek 05-02-2015 03:51 PM

Mark Casse is unstoppable today.

Danzig 05-02-2015 05:07 PM

Win bets on frosted, carpet diem, mubtaahij, used frammento, Danzig moon, upstart, war story and far right underneath. Seems like a long shot always hits the board, so figured I'd give it a whirl.


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