The Hofmans horse comes from one of the most potent families around right now. The dam is a half-sister to stakes winner Capitano, who won his debut on dirt at HP at odds of 109-1. The dam herself won her debut on turf at Santa Anita at 50-1 and eventually won graded stakes in a brief career. Other half-siblings to the dam include multiple stakes winner Dilemma, who has won stakes on both turf and dirt. There are also two Stonestreet runners, Heavenly Chorus and Yarid, both multiple winners, one on dirt and one on turf.

All those mentioned broke their maidens in special weights early in their careers, two of them on debut. One to follow for sure, especially with the inevitable surface switch.

Associate, nice 45 pt move up off the claim... Horse probably has every possible steroid known to the planet Earth in its system.

Can anyone honestly look at those PP's and not think CHEATER? I guess those front wraps really do work!

I laughed.

Three of the first five races at Tampa today, are 7f.
Three of the first four races at Tampa on Friday, are 7f.

Love Rothko here.

Who would have thought Arch would sire a top sprinter? But this colt has looked pretty good in his last couple of starts. I wonder what sort of speed he will show. In his only 7f race prompted the pace and wilted. Considering the barn, his last two workouts have been very sharp.

In his only start over the track, he was well handled by Hoorayforhollywood. Both colts were making their debuts.

Hooray looks pretty tough here.

Rothko looked scary good in that Churchill win on BC Friday..

I'd like Hooray to prove out too as I was stupid crazy about his dam.

That debut race does not matter at all.

I'm a fan of The Factor but this is who I'm using on top. :$:

Seems like he has talent, but I never trust on the win end those horses that lose photos consistently. Baffert's loaded in this race, why doesn't he take the easy allowance money and wait for the San Fernando?

That mare would have done a lot more if she hadn't been thrown to the wolves early on before ever winning a race. Plus, they felt the need to start her in a Breeder's Cup race every year regardless of form.

Malibu ML

1 El Pocho (CHI) 50-1
2 Centralinteligence 8-1
3 Luckarack 30-1
4 Rothko 9-2
5 Racing Aptitude 8-1
6 Hoorayforhollywood 8-1
7 Light Up the Score 12-1
8 Smash 9-2
9 Associate 6-1
10 Wine Police 8-1
11 The Factor 7-2

A few things jump out at me. The Factor is an underlay. Hooray is an overlay. Wine Police has to be over 12-1 at post time. Associate please god let them bet him, as juiced as he likely is he has no chance 6-1 is crazy.

I'm kind of surprised Wine Police is getting lost in the wagering. He's no world beater, but he's kept solid company his entire career. Other than The Factor, who can say that in this race?

It's possible that there's still a significant gap between the stakes 3yos and the allowance level 3yos. While Smash, Hoorayforhollywood, Centralinteligence, Rothko, et al look like they have bright futures, there's something to be said for being "battle tested". Smash was rejected by Coil in their comeback last May, then was no threat to Indiano in FL. Hoorayforhollywood was edged by Decisive Moment, a Kentucky Derby longshot and Grade 3 type (at best), at Delta Downs. Centralinteligence beat a thoroughly toasted Runflatout in his allowance score. The 4 horses that placed to Rothko in his lopsided allowance wins have done nothing since, save for My Man Marty winning a subsequent 20k claimer.

At any rate, this isn't my idea of a Grade 1.

I get everything your saying, I just dont see Wine Police improving that much. Has he even ran back to his career debut yet this year?

That's kind of my point. He's the known quantity. I may be way off base--I don't have the Beyer numbers--, but perhaps he doesn't have to improve at all. He's acquitted himself well against the likes of Soldat, Stay Thirsty, Boys At Toscanova, Redeemed, and Caleb's Posse. That might be good enough (for now).

The lightly raced horses we've mentioned have essentially only beaten each other, and their few stakes starts and layoff lines don't particularly bestow confidence.

It seems like they all should be between 9-2 and 8-1 in here, with the exception of the Chilean import. Even the O'Neill claimer has his positives, with a minor stakes score (over the well-meant Baffert colt CJ Russell) and 7 career victories under his belt.

Did anyone else notice that they changed the headline in the form and it now has the corect track listed? :D

It had said Hollywood's Malibu Worth a Shot for Ellis.

It was sad that it stayed up for 48 hours that way. But it was also fitting since Hovdey had his name plastered on the headline.

Of course, no one bothered to correct the gross error in the actual article.

Papa Clem did not win the Strub. He didn't even run in it.

Can anyone post the PP's for opening day at SA??? Pretty please!!