Kind of hard to fathom but team Todd could esaily be shutout this year. There is not a single name on that list that is a likely winner.

Paul

Other then Uncle Mo I strongly agree with you.

Sydneys Candy could make some noise in the Mile.

Tizway not running is a good thing.

He seemed pretty iffy as it was. They must have suspected something was wrong with him for awhile now.

It was kind of odd that he hadn't breezed after his big work 2 weeks ago. James Bond suggested he would work again around Oct. 20.

But all of Bond's plans for this horse fell through quickly after the Whitney. I remember after that race, Bond got on his high horse and boasted that he had a huge advantage over the other guys because his horse was sound (the horse was heel nerved reportedly). He even had his whole training schedule leading up to the JCGC already mapped out supposedly. Of course, within 2 weeks, the horse missed his first work back and eventually missed the JCGC altogether with a fever or whatever.

Mr. Commons might be 2010 Courageous Cat all over again. Up and coming 3yr old, lots of room to improve still and sitting on a career top. Im not sure he's good enough to win, but who knows.

I hope you're right. Courageous Cat didn't run in the 2010 BC.

Mr. Common's been poorly spotted throughout his career. It was one thing to try for the Triple Crown races, but once he was back on turf where he belonged, they still can't take the obvious path (Del Mar Derby, Oak Tree Derby, etc.). Courageous Cat wasn't losing to second tier older horses before the 2009 BC. Not since Island Fashion and Toccet has a horse been campaigned so illogically.

Then again, Mike Smith claims he's as good as Lure, and Lure did get beat in the Kelso prior to his wire job in '92 at GP. Of course, Arazi was the favorite, and 3yos took the first 3 spots (the great Paradise Creek and classic winner Brief Truce rounded out the trifecta).

His 3yr old year, sorry the year was wrong. Mike Smiths ride on Mr. Commons 2 back was a joke. Wide the entire way, with a premature move. The entire time the chalk is riding the rail

I liked Lure in the Cup in 1992, but it sure helped that Roman Envoy was not supplemented to the Mile.

Wide the whole way? There were all of 6 horses in the race. He sat 2 off the rail throughout until making his bid, which wasn't early, on the far turn. The winner went even wider. He simply wasn't good enough.

The odds of him getting a better trip in a 14-horse field versus better horses are not good.

Paradise Creek was something like 24-1. I think he might have been part of the mutual field the following year, too.

I just watched it on Calracing to be sure. Are we both talking about the August 27th race at Del Mar, if we are I strongly disagree with you.

Sounds good to me.

What part don't you agree with? That the winner went wider into the stretch or that there were only 6 horses in the race?

I suppose since he lost the race by a nose, any trouble could be regarded as "significant", but in the end, was it enough to justify Mr. Commons finishing in a 4-horse blanket finish with the likes of Calmonico and Victory Pete, when we're talking about his chances in the BC Mile?

You said the winner went even wider. Not wider into the stretch, big difference. The winner hugged the rail the entire race, until tipping out for the stretch run. Wish there was trakus. As for the entire trip... When is it good to be wide with no cover the entire way around the track in an 8f turf race? He was 3-4 wide into the first turn, he was at least that wide into the lane as well. As for the move, if it was not premature Im not sure what a premature move is then. Not to mention he broke dead last and was ahead of the chalk going into the first turn. It was a classic Mike Smith wide, no cover because I think Im on the best horse trip. Like I said earlier Im not sure about him in the BC he just reminds me a lot of Courageous Cat coming in as a 3yr old. He ran a career top and a fine second to Goldikova.

There is.

From the head on, Caracortado stayed one extra path off the rail. He basically drafted in behind Mr. Commons.

3-wide is a big deal? Caracortado had no cover.

He started to advance into to the far turn. His strongest bid was entering the stretch. At no point until maybe the 1/16th pole did he even make the lead. It's not like he went all in at the 1/2, opened up on the field, and wilted. He followed Victory Pete's bid for the lead.

Not sure it's Smith's fault that the colt broke flat footed. Obviously he has a bit of tactical speed, and Smith had to pass 2 horses on the turn once the horse got in stride. He went a little wide (3 wide) as a result.

Courageous Cat, who broke his maiden in June at 3, nearly tied to course records in 3 subsequent races leading up to the BC. His only loss was an odd run in the Jamaica, where he set the early pace, ended up stalking, fell back on the turn, then rerallied. Meanwhile, Mr. Commons has a listed stakes win to his credit and a bunch of defeats that counter any notion that he is a top class horse at this point. He'll be lucky to emulate Navesink (2001) or Walkslikeaduck (2000).

Mm. Botti and Tree win the award for most miles accumulated this year out of the probable runners...

Hope they do well. :)

Serious work posted by Euroears. :eek:

Not that I expected him to win a BC race, but what happened to Coil?