Derby Trail Forums - Derby field, where they should go, Preakness possibles

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Quote:

Originally Posted by NTamm1215 (Post 775316)

These were the odds of the Derby winner in the Preakness (with their Derby odds) going back to 2002.

2010 - Super Saver 8-1/1.9-1
2009 - Mine That Bird 50.6-1/6.6-1
2008 - Big Brown 2.4-1/0.20-1
2007 - Street Sense 4.9-1/1.3-1
2006 - Barbaro 6.1-1/0.50-1
2005 - Giacomo 50.3-1/6-1
2004 - Smarty Jones 4.1-1/0.70-1
2003 - Funny Cide 12.8-1/1.90-1
2002 - Medaglia d'Oro 20.50-1/2.8-1

Basically, there hasn't been a mid-range longshot like Animal Kingdom since War Emblem. The super bombs that have won (Giacomo and Mine That Bird) were considered flukes and/or had another horse in the race that deserved more attention (Rachel Alexandra/Afleet Alex).

There were no trips in the Derby at all. Not one horse coming out of there is worthy of being upgraded in the Preakness because of their Derby effort.

Of the non-Derby starters who may run there you have:

Astrology - 0-2 this year and has gone off the 2nd choice both times
Concealed Identity - 7-1 in his Tesio win yesterday
Dance City - 29-1 in the Arkansas Derby 3rd place finish
Flashpoint - 9/2 in Florida Derby
King Congie - 13-1 in the Blue Grass and his two dirt races were awful
Norman Asbjornson - 47-1 and 26-1 in the Gotham and Wood Memorial
Prime Cut - 3-1 in the Lexington runner-up finish
Sway Away - Always seems to get bet, 6-1 when 4th in Arkansas
Mr. Commons - 3-1 in the SA Derby, which hardly proved to be a solid prep

So, if you take the horses who ran yesterday the only ones I could see getting significant money are Dialed In and Mucho Macho Man. Shackleford was almost 3x Mucho Macho Man's price and I can't see how he wouldn't be a much larger price.

All that being said, I think Animal Kingdom will be well below 2-1.

Think this was meant to be War Emblem.

Quote:

Originally Posted by slotdirt (Post 775323)

Think this was meant to be War Emblem.

LOL, yes it was. I noticed in looking at the chart who it was that got a lot of money in the Preakness keeping War Emblem's odds relatively high.

Quote:

Originally Posted by freddymo (Post 775322)

Please the horse had a perfect trip into a decent pace and is hardily a star. His own trainer wouldnt have pick him vs. Tobys Corner. He ran well..He has done enough, his 15 minutes of fame are over!

This just sounds like bitterness. The pace wasn't decent, it was quite slow, plenty of other horses had similar or better trips and didn't explode in the stretch like AK did. Johnny barely even had to do any work on him. How do you know if he's 'hardly a star'? This was his first race on dirt, so no one knows how good he'll be yet. To me, this has the potential to be another example of synthetic surfaces making a very good horse look very mediocre.

All that cash on Medaglia and freaking Magic Weisner clunked up for the place.

Sounds like MMM, Shack, and Dialed In are joining AK in the Preakness.

If anyone wants to offer me 4-1 on Animal Kingdom winning the Triple Crown, I will take it right now. I don't see any of the Derby also-rans turning the tables in the Preakness or Belmont. And the new-shooters are nothing special.

Quote:

Originally Posted by justindew (Post 775331)

I'd lay that, but I don't know if I can muster up enough capital to get a whale like you excited.

I think I read that yesterday was the slowest first half mile split for a Derby since 1947. No point really other than to mention that fact.

Quote:

Originally Posted by slotdirt (Post 775336)

I think I read that yesterday was the slowest first half mile split for a Derby since 1947. No point really other than to mention that fact.

Over a very quick racetrack. But yet, we're supposed to believe the pace was 'decent'.

If Animal Kingdom wins the triple crown just shoot me in the head.

Quote:

Originally Posted by horseofcourse (Post 775352)

If Animal Kingdom wins the triple crown just shoot me in the head.

I'd rather see freddymo eat his program.

Quote:

Originally Posted by justindew (Post 775331)

I would take that bet for sure.

Paul

Quote:

Originally Posted by justindew (Post 775331)

ill take this...pm me if your serious

Quote:

Originally Posted by justindew (Post 775331)

4-1?
Hell, I'd give you twice that.

Quote:

Originally Posted by ateamstupid (Post 775345)

Over a very quick racetrack. But yet, we're supposed to believe the pace was 'decent'.

Honestly? It was just a very weirdly run race. Zero excuses for Shackleford, I know that much.

I'm 100% serious about taking 4-1 on AK winning the Triple Crown. Here is my logic...

He'll be 9-5 in the Preakness, which I obviously belive he will win. Then he will be 3-5 in the Belmont. So at 4-1, I'm getting value...

..but not much, clearly. It sounds like I could have gotten better than 4-1 from this group. Dumb move by me. Should have asked for at least 6-1.

But I'll keep my word. I'll lay $100 to the first person to PM me.

Quote:

Originally Posted by slotdirt (Post 775365)

Honestly? It was just a very weirdly run race. Zero excuses for Shackleford, I know that much.

You could blame it on Forestry, but interestingly, the mare was bred to another sprinter, Orientate, and got Lady Joanne who won at 10 f. She was later bred to A.P. Indy and that foal probably won't get a mile. :D

Quote:

Originally Posted by justindew (Post 775367)

PM sent.

Paul

Quote:

Originally Posted by pweizer (Post 775369)

PM sent.

Paul

Deal.