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-   -   2/20 (FG): Risen Star (G2); Mineshaft, FG H., SBD (G3's) (http://www.derbytrail.com/forums/showthread.php?t=34412)

The Indomitable DrugS 02-16-2010 10:17 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by DaTruth
DrugS, your avatar looks like K.D. Lang wearing Harry Caray's sunglasses.
I'll go DrugS mugshot now.

Slightly more menacing than this ...

blackthroatedwind 02-16-2010 10:51 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by ateamstupid
Tempted to Tapit's last race looks phenomenal and he appears the speed of the speed. I'll be interested to see how he follows up his last.

Bias aided races on the inner, especially at two turns, should be taken with a grain of salt. What were his prior excuses?

Discreetly Mine is much faster early.

Betsy 02-17-2010 07:28 AM
Quote:
Originally Posted by blackthroatedwind
Bias aided races on the inner, especially at two turns, should be taken with a grain of salt. What were his prior excuses?

Discreetly Mine is much faster early.
I would imagine they'd try to rate DM. I don't think he wants to stretch out at all, but he has no shot if he uses his early speed.

NTamm1215 02-17-2010 08:10 AM
Quote:
Originally Posted by Betsy
I would imagine they'd try to rate DM. I don't think he wants to stretch out at all, but he has no shot if he uses his early speed.
So it would be better to take him out of his element and try to rate?

I also don't understand why you continue to state so plainly that he doesn't want to stretch out. Are you basing it on his 2nd place finish in the Champagne where he forced a hot pace? Super Saver didn't even stay the course that day after contesting the pace with DM.

NT

Linny 02-17-2010 08:51 AM
Discreetly Mine is bred to run all day. As for the AQU inner, it has sent out some nice horses over the last few years and a fast horse is a fast horse.

Danzig 02-17-2010 08:57 AM
Quote:
Originally Posted by Betsy
I read Frostad's quotes - did they come before or after the draw? In any case, I guess it doesn't matter. A bad post shouldn't hinder the colt from at least running well - it's not like he has to win.

As far as Discreetly Mine goes, Mineshaft has been such a disappointment as a sire that, to me, the fact that he was a router doesn't mean that much. I know you know that not every offspring by a sire takes after that sire - AP Indy has sired sprinter/milers in his career. I did like DM last year, but I really thought his Spectacular Bid was mediocre - at no point did he show anything. He also doesn't look like a horse that will stretch out; to me, he's at best a miler, but I really don't think he wants more than 7 furlongs. I don't expect much from him in this race.

i know it's not just according to sire-but the horses dam isn't exactly lacking in the stamina dept, nor was his half brother discreet cat. of course none of that means the horse can win this. but i don't see a reason at this point to say he's a sure sprinter.

blackthroatedwind 02-17-2010 10:09 AM
Quote:
Originally Posted by Linny
a fast horse is a fast horse.

As long as it's actually a fast horse.

ateamstupid 02-17-2010 11:56 AM
Quote:
Originally Posted by blackthroatedwind
Bias aided races on the inner, especially at two turns, should be taken with a grain of salt. What were his prior excuses?

Discreetly Mine is much faster early.
Fair enough, I just hardly ever see horses set fractions like that going two turns and show no sign of tiring ever, maybe I'm not watching the IT enough. You're right, his other races suck, but that's why I'm interested to see what he comes with on Saturday.

blackthroatedwind 02-17-2010 12:13 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by ateamstupid
Fair enough, I just hardly ever see horses set fractions like that going two turns and show no sign of tiring ever, maybe I'm not watching the IT enough. You're right, his other races suck, but that's why I'm interested to see what he comes with on Saturday.
It was a very fast pace, you're absolutely right, I just have trouble buying it all as it relates to the rest of his form. Don't get me wrong, he may be OK, but one inner dirt two turn wire job doesn't convince me of much.

Betsy 02-17-2010 04:16 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by NTamm1215
So it would be better to take him out of his element and try to rate?

I also don't understand why you continue to state so plainly that he doesn't want to stretch out. Are you basing it on his 2nd place finish in the Champagne where he forced a hot pace? Super Saver didn't even stay the course that day after contesting the pace with DM.

NT
I'm basing it on that, in part. Even if I thought he could go long, he's not that good (and believe me, I wish I didn't think so). Yeah, he beat Super Saver twice, but that means nothing now. SS has developed and DM hasn't. Also, he always seems to have excuses. First in the Futurity and then in the Champagne. I don't recall him forcing the pace in that race - I recall him being a few lengths off it. Are you saying you like this horse for the Derby? The same colt who battled with Eightyfiveinafifty (I think that's his name, sorry if I'm mistaken) and lost that duel in the Dublin maiden race? I'm just not sure what some see in him, that's all.

Betsy 02-17-2010 04:19 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by Danzig
i know it's not just according to sire-but the horses dam isn't exactly lacking in the stamina dept, nor was his half brother discreet cat. of course none of that means the horse can win this. but i don't see a reason at this point to say he's a sure sprinter.
That's all true, but the horse doesn't look to me like he wants to go on. Since I don't think he's that good and I expect very little from him in the Risen Star, it will be hard to tell from that race whether he chucks it because he can't go long or because he's a mediocre talent. Possibly he could go longer against suspect competition? I admit his race in the Spectacular Bid turned me off DM quite a bit, but I still thought before hand he was a sprinter.

jms62 02-18-2010 05:43 AM
Quote:
Originally Posted by ateamstupid
Tempted to Tapit's last race looks phenomenal and he appears the speed of the speed. I'll be interested to see how he follows up his last.
I agree but he did it on a muddy track so obviously I wonder how much he was aided by that.

Betsy 02-20-2010 05:02 PM
Ok, I suppose I need to admit that I was wrong - sort of. There is no way this horse goes 1 1/4 - I can't see him getting 1 1/8 well either. The final time was slow and no one did anything behind him - I would rather see DM kept sprinting, especially since Todd's A horse won the FOY so impressively.

ateamstupid 02-20-2010 05:20 PM
Very tough beat for Quiet Temper.

The Bid 02-20-2010 06:07 PM
That track is ridiculous today on the front end. TT ran a very good race to hold second. He essentially chased a lose leader at a mild pace. He needed that against better horses, he will get a lot out of that race.

Jodi Slew ran a huge race today with how that was playing.

Linny 02-20-2010 07:19 PM
I was pretty happy with the Risen Star but the wrong horse closed for me in the Silverbulletday.

The Indomitable DrugS 02-20-2010 08:19 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by Betsy
Ok, I suppose I need to admit that I was wrong - sort of. There is no way this horse goes 1 1/4 - I can't see him getting 1 1/8 well either. The final time was slow and no one did anything behind him - I would rather see DM kept sprinting, especially since Todd's A horse won the FOY so impressively.
The problem is that he sucks sprinting - and that there is more money to be made routing.

There are a lot of true sprinters - you know, horses who are actually better sprinting than routing .... and they are sacrficed into route races because you simply have a lot more money to be made.

Making a horse who is better off routing - try to be a sprinter - is foolish.

The Indomitable DrugS 02-20-2010 08:21 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by The Bid
Jodi Slew ran a huge race today with how that was playing.
Jodi Slew beat a terrible field over a very fair racetrack.

Betsy 02-20-2010 08:23 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by The Indomitable DrugS
The problem is that he sucks sprinting - and that there is more money to be made routing.

There are a lot of true sprinters - you know, horses who are actually better sprinting than routing .... and they are sacrficed into route races because you simply have a lot more money to be made.

Making a horse who is better off routing - try to be a sprinter - is foolish.
You think this horse really wants to route? In looking at the race again, he ran fine.....he did spurt away from his rivals when he needed to. However, I didn't think he ran like he definitely wanted more ground. I will admit that the FG stretch is not conducive to front runners, though from what I've read, the track was speed favoring today. In any case, with his running style, DM will get fried in the Derby.

The Indomitable DrugS 02-20-2010 08:31 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by Betsy
though from what I've read, the track was speed favoring today.
Whatever you read about it being a speed favoring track is retarded. I assume whoever wrote it has been watching synthetic track racing for the last 3 years and expects deep closers to win a bunch of races.

Look at the days 3 dirt route race. Heavily favored Friesan Fire didn't even hit the board after setting a slow pace - a longshot won from mid-pack passing the two favorites.

In the Silverbulletday - an 8/1 winner was dead last on the turn and closed from out of the TV screen to win.

In the Risen Star - you basically had a race with only two horses with any ability (Discreetly Mine and Tepted to Tapit) - instead of pressuring each other - they both rated - and instead of burying that disgraceful field behind them .. they finished 1-2 in workmanlike fashion.


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