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-   -   who do i bet in the classic (http://www.derbytrail.com/forums/showthread.php?t=32586)

Gander 11-04-2009 10:33 AM
Quote:
Originally Posted by johnny pinwheel
gander, i totally agree. the pace could be crawling with regal ransom in the lead. its the perfect set up for the two horses you mentioned. give summer bird and quality road a slow moving target like this and one of them will get first jump at the lead. the poly is the question, will these two like it? looking at QR breeding, i think he will. mine that birds only shot is if this race collapses, which i don't see. add the fact that zenyatta is going to be overbet and you have a nice number. after seeing that jockey gold cup, i'm convinced that the 3 yo's are better than these older horses. i might be wrong but after seeing richards kid win the pacific classic and place in the goodwood. my feeling is most of the older division has no shot in this race. you could not find macho again within a pole of the top two when he raced them. i think quality road and summer bird are this countries best shot at the best price that will be given.
I agree. Its not like Quality Road is a proven poly hater and they are just running him in the hopes of his one or two bad poly races were an aberration. Nobody knows how he'll like it. But with his talent and his high cruising speed, at about 10/1, I'll take my shot. I dont believe that this distance is too far for him either, especially going at a slow pace. Look at how he finished up in the Jockey Club Gold Cup. He lost by a small margin to a very good horse. He hasnt run a bad race ever. Maybe he will here and I lose my money, who knows. Playing this race hoping that his talent just gets him there.

Although I dont believe the pace will be strong, Mine that Bird just really scares me for some reason...I will be using him on pick 3's and pick 4's.

This is not the kind of race I would ever tell anybody how to play or how not to play, thats for sure.

Good luck!

johnny pinwheel 11-04-2009 10:43 AM
Quote:
Originally Posted by Gander
I agree. Its not like Quality Road is a proven poly hater and they are just running him in the hopes of his one or two bad poly races were an aberration. Nobody knows how he'll like it. But with his talent and his high cruising speed, at about 10/1, I'll take my shot. I dont believe that this distance is too far for him either, especially going at a slow pace. Look at how he finished up in the Jockey Club Gold Cup. He lost by a small margin to a very good horse. He hasnt run a bad race ever. Maybe he will here and I lose my money, who knows. Playing this race hoping that his talent just gets him there.

Although I dont believe the pace will be strong, Mine that Bird just really scares me for some reason...I will be using him on pick 3's and pick 4's.

This is not the kind of race I would ever tell anybody how to play or how not to play, thats for sure.

Good luck!
add to the fact that quality road has grass breeding. he should like it, even though its not a given. he caught wet tracks both times at the distance. this horse puts up monster numbers on a dry track. its a definite overlay.

good luck if you win i win!

Gander 11-04-2009 10:44 AM
Quote:
Originally Posted by johnny pinwheel
add to the fact that quality road has grass breeding. he should like it, even though its not a given. he caught wet tracks both times at the distance. this horse puts up monster numbers on a dry track. its a definite overlay.

good luck if you win i win!
LOL, maybe. Theres a lot of races before the Classic and I am an avid lover of Aqueduct, so there is about a 75% chance I'll be broke before this race goes off. I'd still love to see him win!

johnny pinwheel 11-04-2009 10:49 AM
Quote:
Originally Posted by Gander
LOL, maybe. Theres a lot of races before the Classic and I am an avid lover of Aqueduct, so there is about a 75% chance I'll be broke before this race goes off. I'd still love to see him win!
well hit something early so you can get it all at the end......lol

Merlinsky 11-04-2009 10:41 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by gales0678
rider change and distance
And running style, obviously. I don't see how anybody can conclude MTB has no chance based mainly on the Juvie finish. He's a better horse now and seems to be tuning up well on the surface coming into the race. Calvin drawing the rail, is that a sign?

hockey2315 11-04-2009 10:48 PM
It amazes me that sentient beings capable of operating computers actually think Mine That Bird is a good play in this race.

Coach Pants 11-04-2009 10:51 PM
I haven't looked at it but probably Richard's Kid. Baffert swept the early pick 4 last week. There's a thread here and it's convinced me he's hot right now!

Merlinsky 11-05-2009 12:44 AM
Quote:
Originally Posted by hockey2315
It amazes me that sentient beings capable of operating computers actually think Mine That Bird is a good play in this race.
It's possible to use the computer for good and for ill. Just ask Paris Hilton on Twitter. Of course she'd probably pick Zenyatta cuz she's a girl too and really there are worse picks that could come from a hunch bet. Hmm, I guess she proves your point since she wouldn't go for MTB either. Drat.

MTB and Summer Bird are horses of which I am fond, same with Colonel John, and the enjoyment I get from their respective sires will be projected onto them as far as I'm concerned. As far as who can win, it's the BCC and heck anything could happen. Maybe more would have to happen for some than for others but anything is possible and it's not these horses are a bunch of nobodies. There's some call for them to be here generally. Sometimes a horse getting no respect jumps up and bites some folks. Should be interesting to see that horse (Girolamo?) use this race as a Dubai World Cup prep. Any odds out there on that double?

chucklestheclown 11-05-2009 12:55 AM
Quote:
Originally Posted by hockey2315
It amazes me that sentient beings capable of operating computers actually think Mine That Bird is a good play in this race.
Same was said on Derby Day. After the fact. Anyone ignoring him on what seems to be a speed-favoring track on the rail is just stubborn, maybe too much for their own good. GRL.

hockey2315 11-05-2009 01:30 AM
Quote:
Originally Posted by chucklestheclown
Same was said on Derby Day. After the fact. Anyone ignoring him on what seems to be a speed-favoring track on the rail is just stubborn, maybe too much for their own good. GRL.
huh?

chucklestheclown 11-05-2009 01:52 AM
Guess you were not watching and/or listening the past few days? Of course, if you are referring to MTB being a stalker/closer type, I can see why you think the rail as a start is not a factor. I think Calvin is smarter than people give him credit for.

hockey2315 11-05-2009 01:57 AM
Speed favoring and a good rail are not the same thing. . . and he's not a stalker at all.

chucklestheclown 11-05-2009 02:01 AM
You sure like to split hairs don't you? The rail is certainly not dead and definitely won't be Saturday.

hockey2315 11-05-2009 02:03 AM
You sure like making clueless posts don't you?

You're making a case for a stone-cold closer based on a supposedly speed favoring track.

chucklestheclown 11-05-2009 02:24 AM
If you don't think Borel can bounce on and off the rail at will you are the clueless one, and i meant speed-favoring in a fake-dirt way. Next year I'll go head to head with you if you want, but not over 1000 days.

Gander 11-05-2009 08:02 AM
Steven Crist, who many think is God, actually wrote in his blog that Mine that Bird isnt without a case. Heres a bit of it. I guess it depends more on who states there case for this horse, rather than what the case is...

The more optimistic view is that he needed his last start off a 10-week layoff and is poised to improve; that his career before the Derby is irrelevant because that was the race where he blossomed and turned into a different horse when allowed to make one run from far back; and that his three strong efforts in the Triple Crown mark him as a horse of quality in a Classic where no one is that much faster. (From a speed-figure viewpoint, his Beyers of 105 and 106 in the Derby and Preakness, as a May 3-year-old, put him in the mix to run the 107-to-110 that may well be good enough to win this Classic.)

He has been likened to Giacomo, another 50-1 Derby winner who never won another important race, but I think that's unfair to him: All three of his Triple Crown efforts were better than Giacomo's. Even if you dismiss the Derby itself, his second to Rachel Alexandra in the Preakness was an excellent effort, and who knows what would have happened in the Belmont if his rider hadn't moved way too soon.

In a race where the three favorites (Zenyatta, Rip Van Winkle and Summer Bird) are a mare who despite all her virtues is coming off two slow victories, and two colts who have never raced on a synthetic track, it may pay to go longshot-hunting. Mine That Bird is unlikely, but not impossible.

chucklestheclown 11-05-2009 09:10 PM
Let me clarify. I do NOT think MTB is going to win the classic, but I would not be totally shocked if he did. He is on the rail with Bo-rail, and they will be on a mission. I do not think he will move off the rail at any time before they hit the stretch, and though the track has been accused of having a dead rail in the past it has not this meet, and it will be nowhere near dead Saturday. He will not be clodding up 4-wide in the stretch, he will already be there because it will be as slow as Richard's Kid wants it to be. It will be up to everybody else to pass those 2 and CJ.

2Hot4TV 11-06-2009 07:36 AM
Summer Bird , Zenyatta , Einstien, all

richard 11-06-2009 10:23 AM
Colonel John at the odds he'll go off at will hard to resist .


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