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-   -   Never won on the dirt theory is dead (http://www.derbytrail.com/forums/showthread.php?t=29439)

kgar311 05-02-2009 08:12 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by blackthroatedwind
No sane person can possibly think Pioneer of the Nile ran a particularly good race today. He clunked along faster than most of the others. Congratulations. One horse ran.....and eighteen didn't. Some just didn't show up a little ( or a lot ) more than others.

Musket Man ran with the track set up dead against him and he still finished second in my book

sdjcom 05-02-2009 08:12 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by blackthroatedwind
No sane person can possibly think Pioneer of the Nile ran a particularly good race today. He clunked along faster than most of the others. Congratulations. One horse ran.....and eighteen didn't. Some just didn't show up a little ( or a lot ) more than others.

18 horses didn't show up? after weeks of training work-outs and fine tuning only a couple of horses showed up? i don't buy it. The top four handled a tough track the others could not.

blackthroatedwind 05-02-2009 08:15 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by sdjcom
18 horses didn't show up? after weeks of training work-outs and fine tuning only a couple of horses showed up? i don't buy it. The top four handled a tough track the others could not.


You need to work on your reading comprehension if you ever expect me to respond to you again.

Danzig 05-02-2009 08:16 PM

like i just wrote in a pm, i don't trust the results. on that surface that they had today....i think it's a toss. who would use todays finish to bet these horses next time out? on a fast track? i wouldn't. and i picked musket man who seemed to run credibly. but who knows?
i wouldn't bet the winner back off that effort in two weeks. or the place horse for that matter. hell, mine that bird won by almost seven. how the hell does that flatter POTN? he sucked less then the others?

Danzig 05-02-2009 08:17 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by sdjcom
18 horses didn't show up? after weeks of training work-outs and fine tuning only a couple of horses showed up? i don't buy it. The top four handled a tough track the others could not.

the winner won by almost seven. seems to me he was the only one to really handle the track. they all finished. but only one finished well.

blackthroatedwind 05-02-2009 08:17 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by kgar311
Musket Man ran with the track set up dead against him and he still finished second in my book


Musket Man ran his usual unspectacular race. He's a very " nice " horse....but hardly of the quality one would hope for a Classic winner. He, along with Pioneer of the Nile, ran their expected races. They were good enough to lose the KY Derby by almost seven lengths. Sometimes that means you finish ninth and tenth....and once a century second and third.

The Indomitable DrugS 05-02-2009 08:19 PM

Musket Man running 4th was like my strongest opinion of the whole race after the scratches.

I thought he had it nailed down till the last desperate surge.

kgar311 05-02-2009 08:20 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by blackthroatedwind
Musket Man ran his usual unspectacular race. He's a very " nice " horse....but hardly of the quality one would hope for a Classic winner. He, along with Pioneer of the Nile, ran their expected races. They were good enough to lose the KY Derby by almost seven lengths. Sometimes that means you finish ninth and tenth....and once a century second and third.


Musket Man wins with that trip on a fast track

gales0678 05-02-2009 08:20 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by blackthroatedwind
Musket Man ran his usual unspectacular race. He's a very " nice " horse....but hardly of the quality one would hope for a Classic winner. He, along with Pioneer of the Nile, ran their expected races. They were good enough to lose the KY Derby by almost seven lengths. Sometimes that means you finish ninth and tenth....and once a century second and third.


andy - wouldn't it be best for the connections to skip the preakness , give the horse some rest and get ready for the summer at MTH/DEL/PHA , he s/b able to keep making checks for them in g3's no?

Danzig 05-02-2009 08:21 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by kgar311
Musket Man wins with that trip on a fast track


i wouldn't go that far. i picked him...but who knows what much of the rest of the field would have done if it was fast. not finish 10 or more lengths back of that monster, mine that bird.

Danzig 05-02-2009 08:22 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by gales0678
andy - wouldn't it be best for the connections to skip the preakness , give the horse some rest and get ready for the summer at MTH/DEL/PHA , he s/b able to keep making checks for them in g3's no?

i'd take him to md, but i wouldn't go to ny for 1 1/2 with him.

justindew 05-02-2009 08:24 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by blackthroatedwind
Musket Man ran his usual unspectacular race. He's a very " nice " horse....but hardly of the quality one would hope for a Classic winner. He, along with Pioneer of the Nile, ran their expected races. They were good enough to lose the KY Derby by almost seven lengths. Sometimes that means you finish ninth and tenth....and once a century second and third.

I think the lesson here is that regardless of what Pioneerof The Nile did today or does in the future, you will under no circumstances ever admit that he's talented. I just don't see any scenario under which you would ever reverse course on this issue.

If he wins the Preakness or Belmont, it's because all the good horse got hurt.

If he wins the Breeders' Cup Classic, then it's because he's a synthetic horse.

If he wins multiple Grade Is this year and next, it's because of the relative mediocrity of the competition.

the_fat_man 05-02-2009 08:28 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by justindew
I think the lesson here is that regardless of what Pioneerof The Nile did today or does in the future, you will under no circumstances ever admit that he's talented. I just don't see any scenario under which you would ever reverse course on this issue.

Yo

Once the BEYER gang hammers out those super duper ARTI-FIGS, and the horse runs fast enough according to those figs, he'll be accepted.

Otherwise, he ain't **** and it's unusual circumstances that make him look good.

blackthroatedwind 05-02-2009 08:28 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by justindew
I think the lesson here is that regardless of what Pioneerof The Nile did today or does in the future, you will under no circumstances ever admit that he's talented. I just don't see any scenario under which you would ever reverse course on this issue.

If he wins the Preakness or Belmont, it's because all the good horse got hurt.

If he wins the Breeders' Cup Classic, then it's because he's a synthetic horse.

If he wins multiple Grade Is this year and next, it's because of the relative mediocrity of the competition.


When he runs almost as fast as Macho Again I will admit I was wrong about him. I'm still waiting.

sdjcom 05-02-2009 08:28 PM

who said this thread made no sense, everybody talking with opinions, i like it.

kgar311 05-02-2009 08:31 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by sdjcom
who said this thread made no sense, everybody talking with opinions, i like it.

The off track favored polyrats end of story

sdjcom 05-02-2009 08:34 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by kgar311
The off track favored polyrats end of story

We'll just see what JW has to say about that on Tuesday.

pointman 05-02-2009 09:58 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by justindew
I think the lesson here is that regardless of what Pioneerof The Nile did today or does in the future, you will under no circumstances ever admit that he's talented. I just don't see any scenario under which you would ever reverse course on this issue.

If he wins the Preakness or Belmont, it's because all the good horse got hurt.

If he wins the Breeders' Cup Classic, then it's because he's a synthetic horse.

If he wins multiple Grade Is this year and next, it's because of the relative mediocrity of the competition.

Do you really think POTN ran that great of a race today? He looked very tired in the stretch and barely hung on for the second. The best of this generation didn't run today and POTN couldn't beat what was left. Frankly, I am not all that impressed with POTN or anyone who ran today.

letswastemoney 05-02-2009 11:18 PM

There is nothing wrong with the synthetic figures!! It's a THIRD surface!! It's similar to the idea of winning a turf race and then trying dirt for the first time. Synthetic figures are their own figures and should not be changed to look faster.


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