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-   -   134th Preakness Field Close to Set (http://www.derbytrail.com/forums/showthread.php?t=29491)

ateamstupid 05-14-2009 10:36 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by philcski
What did Smith do wrong on Lion Heart? He ran great in the Derby.

He's talking about LH in the Preakness, when he ran fifth I believe. Can't remember the race well enough to say what Smith did wrong.

Gander 05-14-2009 10:38 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by cakes44
Damn right he did. I was talking about the Preakness. I think he went 4-wide on the lead all the way around the track.

What does that have to do with Johnny V riding a horse like Big Drama who always goes to the lead, and now finds himself in perhaps the most paceless race hes ever been in?

I think if you like Big Drama at all, you have to be thrilled with his post. Is there any other post a horse like him could get that would be better?

philcski 05-14-2009 10:40 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by cakes44
Damn right he did. I was talking about the Preakness. I think he went 4-wide on the lead all the way around the track.

True... looked like a very tired horse that day. Horse had shown a lot of tenacity in every race and offered no resistance that day. I guess with Mike Smith you kind of assume he starts in the 4 path and works his way out.

Quote:

Originally Posted by ateamstupid
He's talking about LH in the Preakness, when he ran fifth I believe. Can't remember the race well enough to say what Smith did wrong.

LH broke on top, SJ stalking, Eddington & RHT started their rallies entering the far turn, Elliott said go at that point and the race was over.

cakes44 05-14-2009 10:42 AM

It probably doesn't have a whole lot to do with Velazquez/Big Drama. I just brought up a situation where having the rail with the lone speed doesn't help.

More than anything, I just watched the 2004 Preakness again last night and thought the ride was comical.

CSC 05-14-2009 10:48 AM

I don't want to turn this into a Mike Smith bashing thread, but it seems to me he has lucked into more good horses in his time than many other riders Ie. Lure, Azeri, Zenyatta, Holy Bull...ect than actually making a difference on a horse. You could easily make a case any rider worth his salt would have no trouble winning with these horses. He rarely makes a difference in a race, and honestly when I bet horses he is on I just hope he doesn't Fcuk up.

kgar311 05-14-2009 10:55 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by philcski
I think you're reading too much into it... there's going to be millions in the pool, just because Lukas says he's betting a horse doesn't mean it's suddenly going to drop her odds from 2-1 to 6/5... she might be 6/5 but it's not going to be Lukas' influence.

The simple fact is she's much the best if she can repeat her last few performances. I'll structure my tickets with that in mind. 50-60% of my pick 4 tickets will end with her, and the remaining 40-50% will have some combination of Big Drama, Musket Man, Fresian Fire, Pioneerofthe Nile, Papa Clem, and General Quarters, depending on what side of the bed I wake up on.

I hope you wake up on the side that doesnt inclde GQ or Papa Clem

philcski 05-14-2009 10:56 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by kgar311
I hope you wake up on the side that doesnt inclde GQ or Papa Clem

Why?

kgar311 05-14-2009 11:24 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by philcski
Why?

Both will not fire.

General Quarters is not good and Papa was a product of track condition in the derby.

philcski 05-14-2009 11:28 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by kgar311
Both will not fire

Papa Clem's work was awful, which bothers me, and I don't think GQ is good enough but I'm willing to draw a line through the Derby for all the runners and start over- clearly some handled the track and others didn't. The only two that ran to their capability were Musket Man and POTN. At 20-1 I'm willing to find out if GQ is good enough and at 12-1 I'll forgive Papa Clem's workout, but nothing less than those prices. So you might be correct in the two that I don't use.

CSC 05-14-2009 11:35 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by DaHoss9698
Smith is a shell of his former self at this point in his career. I won't deny he has lost more than a few steps and he is no longer a go to rider. But, when he was riding Lure and Holy Bull he was at worst the second best rider in NY in my opinion.

People forget he was the leading rider in NY from 1991-1993. He won the eclipse in 1993 and 1994 as top rider. In 1994 he won 20 grade 1 stakes and a total of 68 stakes races, which at that time broke his own record for stakes wins in a year. There is a reason he was riding good horses, he was a very good jockey. I think he's leary of going inside now due to his horrific falls in 1998. I'm not making excuses for him treating the 4 wide path as the rail nowadays, but it wasn't luck that got him those mounts. He earned them.

Actually I agree, good citations of bringing up those stats from his good years. He was always in Bailey's shadow and whether one likes Bailey personally or not, no one could dispute he was a great rider. The difference from the 2 in my opinion is Bailey could make a difference in a horse's performance often bringing in the less superior horse, problem is you still wouldn't get fair value because people bet jockies. Mike's wide moves were also well suited for Belmont and I often wonder wouldn't N.Y be better suited for his riding style, Though I do understand why he moved due to declining mounts.

chucklestheclown 05-14-2009 11:45 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by philcski
Papa Clem's work was awful, which bothers me, and I don't think GQ is good enough but I'm willing to draw a line through the Derby for all the runners and start over- clearly some handled the track and others didn't. The only two that ran to their capability were Musket Man and POTN. At 20-1 I'm willing to find out if GQ is good enough and at 12-1 I'll forgive Papa Clem's workout, but nothing less than those prices. So you might be correct in the two that I don't use.

Besides the obvious Rachel/all, I was planning a seperate box with MTB, PON, MM and PC. I was still going back and forth last night about whether or not to add GQ to it. The 8 scares me enough, along with his honest BG win, that I can't toss him from what would be a good payoff. My TriBox is RA/PON/MM.

slotdirt 05-14-2009 12:04 PM

I don't know, I've never known the connections of a speed type in a route race be really excited about having the one post. I'd much rather be outside the speed.

philcski 05-14-2009 01:19 PM

They just showed Rachel schooling on the Pimlico feed. She looks great.

freddymo 05-14-2009 01:37 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by philcski
They just showed Rachel schooling on the Pimlico feed. She looks great.


I think she will get better with her new connections not worse. Surely a little Ass TLC and elixirs can only help her...

Bernardini 05-14-2009 05:40 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by 10 pnt move up
That might be a worse field then last years survivors of Big Browns romp. Where do they get all these stiffs.

how? justify.

I think this field is just a fine and with RA is in the mix it makes it even better.

Sightseek 05-14-2009 09:50 PM

For someone who has sent Pletcher off to the Derby with plenty of horses that were hopeless, I find it comical that Lucarelli accuses Jackson of "self-serving interest" for entering Rachel.

http://www.drf.com/news/article/103774.html

Danzig 05-14-2009 10:03 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Bernardini
how? justify.

I think this field is just a fine and with RA is in the mix it makes it even better.

i think this field is better than big browns derby field, let alone the preakness...

philcski 05-14-2009 10:09 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Sightseek
For someone who has sent Pletcher off to the Derby with plenty of horses that were hopeless, I find it comical that Lucarelli accuses Jackson of "self-serving interest" for entering Rachel.

http://www.drf.com/news/article/103774.html

What a tool

Pedigree Ann 05-15-2009 03:12 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by slotdirt
Have you met Afleet Alex or Da'Tara?

Let's see, Afleet Alex was out of a mare by Hawkster, a 10f-12f turf specialist by Silver Hawk, and the second dam was by Hawaii, another long-winded turfer who sired a (real) Derby winner at Epsom. Moreover, Northern Afleet, his sire, was a winner at up to 8.5f (G2 San Fernando S) and was a half-brother to a winner of the Delaware H (10f). Stick a little speed on top of the stayers and if you're lucky, you get a horse with both speed and stamina

And Da' Tara? He was by an out-and-out stayer named Tiznow you may have heard of. Out of a mare by Pirate's Bounty, he by a staying influence named Hoist the Flag out of a dam by a son of Nashua. Dam a SP full sister to a Vanity H (G1) winner and a couple of other stakes horses, solid enough family, bit more speed back here, but you need both.


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