DRF|Rachel schools in Fair Grounds paddock

Yet the multitude of munchkins will make her a very short ( one or two), to five choice, and us sharks are circulating anticipating a solid score, with little expenditure, on the overhyped, but freakishly talented short priced filly. NONE of them asking themselves, what ALL trainers would ........Why should I crank my comebacker for 200,000 large when there are five zillion, and some Jacksonism's on the line a month later.

Asmussen, after RA schooled in FG paddock:

“Her gallops have been very strong,’’ Asmussen said. “She’s not 100 percent fit for this race. We’re aware of that. She’s had six works in six months. But she’s a very physical horse. She is Rachel. I am very concerned about her fitness level.’’

Here are Asmussen's stats with layoff horses since 2004:

96-for-643 (14.9% wins) $1.22 ROI - basically you lose 2.5 times more than the takeout - or 39% on every dollar bet.. and 643 races is a big sample.


Here are Asmussen's stats with layoff routers since 2004:

17-for-159 (10.7% wins) $0.65 ROI - you're losing 67.5% on every dollar bet. An unbelievable amount.


It's pretty obvious that Asmussen has very little talent with getting horses ready off of a layoff ... I guess just look at the silly choice of workmate he choose for RA's last work - and the curious comment he made about expecting her to go 1:12 .. she'd have needed like a 21 flat final quarter to do that.

The real bright spot for RA though - is that I believe these Asmussen layoff stats become undermined in her case because Asmussen is also downright terrible 2nd off the layoff and downright terrible 3rd off of the layoff.

He's an ultimate 'strike while the irons hot' kind of trainer .. but when his horses get hurt or go sour and need time .. you can almost forget them. In RA's case - there was no injury and was no going sour.

One of the most talented and special 2yo's I've ever seen was Tiz Wonderful. The piss poor job Asmussen did with him when he brought him back from injury the following year was the stuff of legend.

Really? I thought Discreet Cat left them all in the dust?

Looking at these type of stats is meaningless.. For it to have meaning refine it to look at stakes calibur types. Out of the sample of 643 how many were animals that had won or placed in Graded stakes? Do I really care how Asmussen does getting laimos that suck back to the races?

0-for-14 when they return in Graded Stakes.

8-for-95 with a $0.72 ROI when they return in all stakes.

3-for-34 with a $0.44 ROI in 2010 with all 4+ month layoffs.

0-for-11 with layoffs returning in route races in 2010.

Terrible every way you slice it.

That's strong data right there.

Go all-in against RA and try to score the mother lode???

Ugh, don't get me started on that again.

That was beyond being a piss poor job. That was criminal.

On the bright side, you can breed to him now for pretty reasonable, something I feel you probably won't be able to do in five years.

I strongly AGREE.

The real question is Asmussen's record with 2nd off a layoff?????????????

wife got her Rachel/Zenyatta cards in the mail today, I was pretty confused about why she was getting mail from herself :D

This race could turn out to really tarnish Zenyattas legacy, unfairly IMO.
I feel Zenyatta is simply better, she has won at the Classic distance, she has won on dirt and synthetics and she has defeated the boys. Not to mention she is also undefeated, something Rachel is not. Rachel has also never won at the Classic distance 1 1/4. IMO this can only turn out good if they face each other 3-4 times on different tracks, at different distances. I don't bet Oaklawn much, but the few times I have its been all speed, kinda like the day Conveyance won. Rachel clearly has the advantage over a surface like this, and even though we have not got to see her go 1 1/4 yet I think Zenyatta ultimately will prove to be better at that distance. Another thing many people cant seem to come to grips with is Synthetics... Its part of this game now, I for one hope it goes away forever and its all dirt, but its not and Steve A synthetic stats are horrible and I think everyone agrees whose running style fits those types of surfaces better. The point is, I know its easy to say it now, but I doubt Rachel would have been close to Z in the BCC and I think Zenyatta could have won any of Rachels "big wins" especially The Woodward.

These baffle me considering how good the guy is with first-timers.

Well I don't know what to say...

It's self explanatory I guess.

i'm an RA fan but she wants NO parts of zenyatta.

You have turned the corner. Comgrats

Why not?

Because Zenyatta toyed with donkeys and RA "only manged" to run about a 100 Beyer in a route race comeback for a trainer who is statistically close to being the worst trainer in the entire game off the layoff.

I'm sure they wish they had more time .. but RA obviously has a big chance in the Apple Blossom if they don't chicken out and stall for more time.