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-   -   134th Preakness Field Close to Set (http://www.derbytrail.com/forums/showthread.php?t=29491)

Danzig 05-12-2009 06:19 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by slotdirt
Montbrook is definitely not a 9.5f specialist, I'll tell you that much. I like Big Drama, but his pedigree screams mile or less.

i like him too, but not here.

Danzig 05-12-2009 06:23 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by ninetoone
I can't see FF being 10-1...I'd expect him to be favored over MTB actually....


really? you don't think people will be put off by him only beating flying private in the derby?

ninetoone 05-12-2009 06:29 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Danzig
really? you don't think people will be put off by him only beating flying private in the derby?

Nope. I definitely see him as favored over MTB. No way he goes from the Derby favorite to 10-1 in this race. I could be wrong, but that's my guess.

Gander 05-12-2009 07:15 PM

I dont see the Derby as a race that most rational bettors use a gauge to determine the chances of a particular horse next out. Theres always too many horses causing atypical trips, and this year's Derby was run in slop, albeit Friesan Fire is a horse who likes it wet. Like every year, there are a few very logical horses who had excuses.

Friesan Fire is a tough one to gauge odds on but I would guess much lower than 10/1. Maybe 6/1?

Danzig 05-12-2009 07:27 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Gander
I dont see the Derby as a race that most rational bettors use a gauge to determine the chances of a particular horse next out. Theres always too many horses causing atypical trips, and this year's Derby was run in slop, albeit Friesan Fire is a horse who likes it wet. Like every year, there are a few very logical horses who had excuses.

Friesan Fire is a tough one to gauge odds on but I would guess much lower than 10/1. Maybe 6/1?


that's the thing-he had some good races, but fell so flat in ky, and supposedly liked an off track. second off a layoff tho, with his seven week break from his last to the derby...

i like rachel, but i really like musket man here and would definitely use him in ex's and tri's.

Sightseek 05-12-2009 07:45 PM

General Quarters was involved in a very minor van accident after the driver missed the exit to Pimlico, he's Ok:

http://www.thoroughbredtimes.com/rac...-accident.aspx

It would be pretty weird to make a stop at Wendy's and see the Derby winner peeking his head out of the window of the trailer. :D

Danzig 05-12-2009 08:26 PM

i'm thinking that won't be the last time flying private and luv gov show up late...:D

philcski 05-12-2009 09:01 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by ninetoone
Nope. I definitely see him as favored over MTB. No way he goes from the Derby favorite to 10-1 in this race. I could be wrong, but that's my guess.

Unlikely. Had he run an indifferent 8th or something, maybe, but he finished 2nd last beaten 43 lengths. You and I know that was not a real effort but the majority of the people betting the Preakness will not look past it.

Alan07 05-12-2009 09:12 PM

Will there be a 14th horse?

eajinabi 05-12-2009 09:30 PM

Asmussen is the new trainer for RA?? Horrible!!

Previous owners got thier money and Hal Wiggins get nothing??

booner 05-13-2009 09:30 AM

This is shaping up to be a good race IMO. When RA was entered, I was quick to make her my top choice. Now that I've looked a little more, I'm not so sure.

I will be at a wedding reception about the time the race goes off. I have got to find someway, somehow to watch it.......

Alan07 05-13-2009 10:43 AM

Jockey Jamie Theriot will ride Luv Gov in the Preakness, trainer D. Wayne Lukas said. Theriot replaces Miguel Mena.

cakes44 05-13-2009 10:50 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Alan07
Jockey Jamie Theriot will ride Luv Gov in the Preakness, trainer D. Wayne Lukas said. Theriot replaces Miguel Mena.

Sounds like a winner.

CSC 05-13-2009 11:28 AM

I'm going to bet against RA, the rewards are too enticing if she doesn't win. Right now it sounds like they shouldn't even run the race because they have already handed her the Preakness.

South Beach Luv 05-13-2009 11:54 AM

Rick Reilly article on RA and the Preakness:

http://sports.espn.go.com/espnmag/story?id=4161951

I like how he says she is undefeated in 4 tries - he fails to mention that is just for 2009.

Antitrust32 05-13-2009 12:18 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by South Beach Luv
Rick Reilly article on RA and the Preakness:

http://sports.espn.go.com/espnmag/story?id=4161951

I like how he says she is undefeated in 4 tries - he fails to mention that is just for 2009.


OMG! That was mush city... Poor Rachel now she has no chance in this race...

He should have waited til AFTER the Preakness to publish that if she wins..

letswastemoney 05-13-2009 12:26 PM

I read that the 2nd place horse in the Kentucky Oaks got a 75 beyer....seems like any colt could have crushed that field

Sightseek 05-13-2009 02:14 PM

Should entries for Saturday be up today?

The Indomitable DrugS 05-13-2009 02:19 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by letswastemoney
I read that the 2nd place horse in the Kentucky Oaks got a 75 beyer....seems like any colt could have crushed that field

The 3rd place horse got just a 68 Beyer.

Imagine regressing 32 Beyer points from your last start and still hitting the board in the Kentucky Oaks. Pretty amazing.

That was a very tough day to make figs though - the number for that race could easily have been a few points higher.

Kasept 05-13-2009 02:21 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by The Indomitable DrugS
The 3rd place horse got just a 68 Beyer.

Imagine regressing 32 Beyer points from your last start and still hitting the board in the Kentucky Oaks. Pretty amazing.

That was a very tough day to make figs though - the number for that race could easily have been a few points higher.

Doug..

Jerry Brown said the same thing yesterday about the Oaks in a discussion about the figs for the race.


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