Have you met Afleet Alex or Da'Tara?

Your odds on Big Drama are very close to my own early line. I have him at 5-1.

--Dunbar

D. Wayne is something like 0 for 42 in graded stakes tries the past 18 months.

I think Big Drama (the most likely winner) is more like 7/2 on Saturday and the 2nd choice behind Rachael. Very close (at least in odds) to Big Drama will be Pioneer of a Nile at around 5/1.

I just can't believe that many people are going to be on Big Drama for this one. I think 6/1 seems much more logical, and would suspect Pioneer of the Nile, the filly, and maybe even the Derby winner will go off at lower odds than the Montbrook colt.

He's the most accomplished fresh face and I don't think too many people were fond of the also rans in the Derby.

I agree... RA will be 1st choice, Mine that bird second for some strange reason, Pioneer will be third... and I could see Papa Clem & or Musket Man & or General Quarters (just cause people remember him from the Derby) before Big Drama.

Remember Bernardini was 13-1 in this race. I'd expect Big Drama to be 8-1 or 10-1.

Phil's Expected Odds:
Rachel Alexandra 2-1
Mine That Bird 4-1
Pioneerof The Nile 7-1
Big Drama 9-1
Papa Clem 10-1
Musket Man 10-1
Fresian Fire 10-1
General Quarters 20-1
Take the Points 30-1
Terrain 30-1
Flying Private 50-1
Luv Gov 50-1
Tone it Down 50-1

then i will personally buy favoritism for Pioneerof The Nile!
 

Wow, I'd like 9/1 on Big Drama and hope you are right and I am wrong about what his price will be.

Remember Bernardini was 13-1 in this race. I'd expect Big Drama to be 8-1 or 10-1.

Bernardini was 13/1 because of Barbaro being in the race, but you are right, Bernardini and Big Drama had pretty similar resumes heading into the Preakness. Key difference is Barbaro won the Derby that year and Mine that Bird won it this year.

If it was any race but the Preakness he would be higher... it's simply the Derby winner / public money etc.

Yes but isnt Rachel Alexandra this years Barbaro?

I don't think she's quite that powerful in terms of odds impact, but she'll definitely stirr it up.

Neither do I. She still has lots to prove and maybe she will, but my money says she wont on Saturday.

2-1 is my odds cutoff for using Rachel. Less than that, I'll try to beat her, but anything higher and she gets my money. I doubt MTB will take quite that much money. I'd say POTN will be closer to 4-1 and MTB will be closer to 7-1. Never underestimate the Baffert Buzz Factor™.

I'm bettin' the horse with front bandages ;)

Is philcski.com offering 9-1 on Big Drama?

philcski.com is bidding 9-1 on Big Drama.
He's offering it at 6-1.

Keep in mind, new shooters in the Preakness are habitually underbet relative to their actual abilities. Bernardini was 13-1. Macho Again last year, despite the fact that the Derby horses had proven they had next to zero chance of beating Big Brown, was an absurd 45-1. Scrappy T, off a sparkling Withers win, was 25-1.

My odds are "true line" odds- i.e., with a 16% takeout, so unless I'm very wrong on Rachel, MTB, and POTN, the rest of the horses can only go so low.

I can't see FF being 10-1...I'd expect him to be favored over MTB actually....

Definitely an interesting exercise, esp. with this particular race.