:D




well maybe Morty :eek:

Please...Thebby.

was glad to meet willie at churchill, seems a nice guy--altho tony thought by seeing one of those pics that maybe he was being 'too nice'--lol...nah, not really!

that is a funny story about him and douglas tho. glad to hear you guys had a great time, and you better believe i'm proud as hell of how she's turned out.

lol

well, that just goes without saying!

Congratulations guys. I just got home and watched the race for the first time. Another good race from her.
I hope none of you are tempted to be disappointed by the fact that she hasn't won one yet. Winning horse races at places like CD and AP is pretty damn difficult. Hell, when you purchase a horse you can't even be sure that the animal will make it to the races three times, let alone turn in three strong second place performances in a row.
I guess what I'm trying to say is.....in this game there ARE points (and dollars) for second place. You guys deserve to be proud.

Fair enough, you do deserve credit for that. Certainly you handicapped this race without bias and I respect the opinions of others, hell no one is right in this game all the time, not even close. Understand, though, that those of us that are a part of this venture are a bit biased, as any owner is. I never thought she was a lock today and I was worried about her being a bit short off the layoff. That being said, I still think she was the best horse in the race and the 6 got a dream trip, but I have been around this game long enough (though mostly standardbreds) to know that you can be the best and lose. Still, you look at her last three races and the only conclusion that can be made is that she is a real competitor who wants to win, which will happen sooner or later.

She certainly COULD win sooner or later. But you never know what will happen.
I think it is important to enjoy these exciting money-winning performances, and not spend too much time focusing on the possible pot of gold (the winners' circle) that might not ever come.

Funny thing was as they were loading in the gate.. and our girl took her time, I remembered the 6-9 thing and put a quick box bet in...:p

Congratulations to the owners. She's a very nice filly and has run huge in her last two while getting anything but soft trips. One-turn/two turns, dirt/poly, she is very tough and with any kind of easier trip against similar fillies, she'll roll. It's hard to believe this is the same horse that broke her maiden for $15k at Mountaineer.

Congrats to everyone involved. She has definately been a great investment. When I win the lottery this weekend, I will be calling CHuck to find me a horse. :D

Congrats again guys! I am so happy that she is doing so well. The win will come!

Yes..way to go..never forget the "pervert" it's the best bet win or lose :p

Maybe your hosrey will wear number 11 next time.








;)

IMO, there are two reasons that you are NOT "right". First, it's very shaky to use a race to make conclusions about the odds of that race. It's a mentality that leads to thinking that the only outcome was the actual outcome. ie, the winner had a 100% chance to win the race and the rest of the field had a 0% chance to win. The outcome of a race can support or undermine a pre-race hypothesis, but it's dangerous to push that reasoning too far.

The 2nd reason I think you are not "right" is that even if you DO use the actual race to justify or reject the odds, Sumwon's performance does not invite any 2nd guessing of her odds. Sumwon's odds of 7-5 mean she would have needed a 42% (=5/12) chance to win to break even. Also, because of the 17% track take, Sumwon's 7-5 corresponds to 35% of the pool being bet on her. In other words, if Sumwon had a 35% chance to win that race, then she was neither an overlay or an underlay. (I assume an "underlay" means that you are suffering MORE than the track take.)

Do you really think that the race proved she had less than a 35% chance to win? If so, where did you expect a 35% chance horse to finish those 65% of the time when it doesn't win? Just a nose behind, and not a whole half-length?

btw, I'm not disputing your assertion that Sumwon was an underlay. (I don't have an opinion on that, because I didn't cap the race myself.) I'm disputing your assertion that the outcome of the race itself somehow shows that you were right.

--Dunbar

PS--congrats to the owners and to Cannon Shell. It's truly remarkable what you've accomplished so far!