- Derby 'Speed Cap' Selections
I have a short time available to get this to you, but here's a quick view as we move to within 48 hours of the 129th Running of the Kentucky Derby..
From the rail..
1. SUPAH BLITZ: Looks handsome in person and has worked very well.. Rail draw not a huge hinderence, but lack of speed is.. Has clunked up for many checks and may be capable of stumbling into the bottom of the Super.. Stranger things have happened.. Strickly a show bet as straight proposition at potential triple digit odds.
2. BRANCUSI: Has been out of sight with Biancone opting for accustomed Keeneland surroundings. Reportedly doing well and still has forward move in him. Generously set at 30-1 in a.m. line. Still giving away "class" experience with maiden win only score. But has kept great company. Should run well, but still expect beter things down the road.
3. SIR CHEROKEE: Did not work well Tuesday, but is certainly fit. Seems underlaid at 15-1, and needs swift pace to run at witch is not guarenteed. Runback to AK Derby would earn check, but we're not convinced. Will come late and wide if he comes..
4. ATSWHATIMTALKNABOUT: The "now" horse.. Many pundits expect return to San Felipe corker, but we still think he's been asked for too much in a short period.. Can stay for a while, but expect empty tank when it counts most.
5. PEACE RULES: All systems go on Frankel streaker. Post draw perfect and all signs are pointing in his direction. If Empire Maker doesn't run, you'll know why Frankel gave the more advantageous post to the son of Jules. 8-1 starting point could deliver 5-1 post time number which would be inviting. The must-use horse and logical key horse in exotics. Will be in front 3 when they urn for home and Prado not a guy to doubt in that scenario.
6. FUNNY CIDE: Worked beautifully again before flight to KY and had to be DRAGGED off the track. Horses that don't want to STOP working in the morning is an EXCELLENT SIGN. Peace Rules and TEN MOST WANTED have been the same way this week. We were the first to alert you to his potential and we have to include him aggressively. Low 15-1 trims appeal, but he's in our tickets liberally. Coming to Churchill late usually a big negative, but it didn't bother him at New Orleans, a notoriously tough place to invade. We're rooting for..
7. OFFLEE WILD: Worked only fair Tuesday weaving around, a bad sign. Still needs race to get back to Holt Bull form. Just can't see as much as we're pulling for Lansdon Robbins and his group from Azalea.
8. BUDDY GIL: Reportedly came off drill Monday winded. Don't know what to make of that.. He's exerted himself in the 3 straight Stakes wins, and we expect his same game try Saturday. Have to wonder about the gelding being over the top, but Mullins has been getting his stable charges to hold form. Distance aso an issue. Stevens always a Rose Run plus. We gave you this Eastern Echo son early as well, and want him to do well. Doubt a win, but sure of 100% effort. Board?
9. INDIAN EXPRESS: The wildest of wild cards and certainly impressive physically. Would be just like Baffert to steal this with the most unlikely candidate he's ever sprung on racegoing public. Will gun from the break with Cide and Peace close at hand, and go as far as Baze can get him. Could be far given his daddy's 3rd in Derby try. Hate to have to include, but dangerous to toss.
10. LONE STAR SKY: Working MUCH better for Amoss who has been unconscious for months in Stakes nationwide. Sellers "Comeback" story would be enchanting. Monsterous 50-1 available and Conquistador Cielo offspring should make distance easily. Could keep running when others pack it in. Like Supah Blitz, a worthy bomb for consideration underneath.
11. DOMESTIC DISPUTE: While we got our wish with his late purchase and Derby incluson, there are many here "in the know" that say he is not the same horse he was winning the Santa Catalina. Solis not really the right jock for his style, but could get him more involved earlier. Should make distance DESPITE recent flattenings at top of the lane. 11 hole makes for another potential wide trip which has doomed him in the last 3. Don't know hw to use, but at the price may warrant flyer.
12. EMPIRE MAKER: Everything hinges on his inclusion or declaration. We continue to hear that HE WILL NOT GO, and if he doesn't, the race falls to his stablemate (Peace Rules) and Ten Most Wanted. If he does go, you now have to worry about his fitness. An obvious play against if he runs due to the price as well... A mess. Might do well to toss and pray. Payoffs wilt if wins anyway.
13. EYE OF THE TIGER: Curious entry from the cautious Hollendorfer, the best in Northern California for years. Shouldn't get the 10 panels on paper, but stayed on OK in 8.5f Lex. Tough to love when Jerry said he was thinking Preakness with his charge. Can't see.
14. TEN CENTS A SHINE: Another we didn't expect to see in the Derby gate, but signaling return to form with series of plus moves since oral surgery. Horses' mouth key area given importance of bit.. Lukas promised Ken Ramsey he wouldn't be embarassed by his showing and even hinted at a check! Would be unimaginable shock in winner's circle, but so was Cat Thief in the BC Classic. Include to avoid feeling stupid if Lukas is right?... Again...?
15. OUTTA HERE: Lone entrant with 10f experience. Also lone entrant that had to schlep to Dubai to get it... Not for us, but not a bad horse.
16. TEN MOST WANTED: Slightly compromised by the wide launch, but extreme posts have produced lots of top board finishes in the Derby of late. Day appears to have the "most" horse under him with Deputy Commander blood and definitive fitness. Has worked up a storm since Illinois Derby. Doesn't have to go early, but can't dawdle either. Will be short number on the board and would love to go against, but it wouldn't be smart. Along with Peace Rules, the standout, and eligible to be well clear in deep stretch alone with that one. Too ripe to avoid.
17. SCRIMSHAW: 15 days ago Lukas had NO DERBY HORSES. Now he has 2 Derby horses. Unbelievable. Lexington winner didn't need to do much between that and this, and HASN'T, but that's D. Wayne.. Should run well, though post no favor for free running colt. Another who would be more appealing at a more generous number.
THE SELECTIONS: We wish we could have had more time to analyze the pace and betting stategies for you. The Empire Maker scenario is a real curveball as well.. We are going to suggest 2 outcomes for you... One with Empire Maker in the race, one without him.. As always, we're suggesting horses to use in Exotic betting (Exactas, Trifectas, Superfecta..).. Good luck to all. Enjoy it! Wil get back to you Sunday night from Chicago!
Without Empire Maker:
1. PEACE RULES: Frankel still gets his Derby with the one he never ignored.
2. FUNNY CIDE: Illogical, but have believed from day one and he gets positive pace scenario.
3. TEN MOST WANTED: Eligible for traffic problems and delayed move from P. Day. Easy Goer for the new millenium...
4. SCRIMSHAW: Too much Lukas history here to ignore. Post makes job difficult.
5. LONE STAR SKY: Exactly the kind of horse that gets into the bottom of Derby Super.
6. INDIAN EXPRESS: If he makes it to the top of the lane in the top three, he has a chance to hit the board. Expect a fade.
7. BRANCUSI: A little too much too late for fine Biancone colt. Will get his big wins along the way though.
With Empire Maker:
1. EMPIRE MAKER: He will only run if he is 100%, and if that's the case, he'll win.
2. TEN MOST WANTED
3. PEACE RULES
4. FUNNY CIDE
same as above thereafter..