- BREEDERS' CUP 2008: Selections & Analysis
25th BREEDERS' CUP -- OAK TREE AT SANTA ANITA
DAY 1 (10/24)
3rd: BC Filly & Mare Sprint, F&M-3+, 7f (P6, P3, DD, Super)
Even with anticipated scratch of Indyanne, the pace of this affair appears hotter than a typical seven-eighths event. Stalkers/Closers should have the set up they look for. While Indian Blessing is surely the horse to beat after brilliant managed campaign, Ventura and Zaftig are coming up to this on pitch and should make this one of the weekend's most exciting races.
Best Value: #12 Ventura 5-1: Handled like '00 Sprint runner-up Honest Lady..
Most Likely: #5 Indian Blessing 2-1: Becoming a bet-against as week draws on..
Next Best: #6 Zaftig 8-1: Huge upset chance if close to Acorn form..
Super Add: #3 Intangaroo 9-2: Low figs deceptive; Serious horse best at 7 panels..
Deep Exotics: #8 Tiz Elemental (20-1); #10 Miraculous Miss (20-1)
4th: BC Juvenile Fillies Turf, 2yo-F, 1m-T (P3, DD, Super)
Best Value: #8 Sugar Mom 10-1: Hard to argue with Catalano magic..
Most Likely: #11 Saucey Evening 9-2: Should work out necessary trip..
Next Best: #7 Consequence 8-1: Outfit never runs girls that can't compete..
Super Add: #2 Laragh 7-2: With one below her, appears solid enough..
Deep Exotics: #4 C Karma 8-1: Why is she twice the price of Laragh?
5th: BC Juvenile Fillies (Gr. I), 2yo-F, 8.5f (P4, P3, DD, Super)
May be Friday's most interesting race from a wagering standpoint with logicals either slightly compromised by post draw or less attractive at their quoted ML tote than you would want. Certainly tough to swallow 2-1 on Paasch's very nice Stardom Bound when at least 4-5 have already established their parity with her from a speed figure standpoint..
Best Value: #6 Van Lear Rose 30-1: Yet to regress; Repeat of last can win this..
Most Likely: #10 Stardom Bound 2-1: Rock solid but will need even more yet..
Next Best: #8 C. S. Silk 15-1: Moving up on radar screens by looking better each morning..
Super Add: #4 Sky Diva 7-2: Stunning in Frizette but back fast from big effort..
Deep Exotics: #2 Persistently 15-1
<$25 P3 Play:
3: 12
4: 2-4-7-8-11
5: 2-4-6-8-10
1x5x5 = $25
6th: BC Filly & Mare Turf, 3+, 10f-T (P3, DD, Super)
O'Brien Irish-bred Halfway to Heaven is emerging as Ballydoyle's banker for the weekend having been within 3 lengths of Zarkava at Paris in the Springtime, and a three time Group 1 winner since.. May waltz.
Most Likely: #8 Halfway to Heaven 4-1: Multiple Group I winner will adore this surface..
Best Value: #3 Forever Together 6-1: Sheppard-Strawbridge miss has been terrific..
Next Best: #5 Wait a While 3-1: Perfect this course; Nearly perfect this trip..
Super Add: #7 Mauralakana 5-1: Clement mare always runs her race..
Deep Exotics: #4 Visit 15-1: Competitive with pick; Looks good physically..
7th: BC Ladies Classic (Gr. I), 3+, 9f (P4, P3, DD, Super, Super Hi 5)
Keep expecting Shirreffs-Moss monster Zenyatta to be seriously challenged, and she just keeps winning effortessly. Sure hard to simply 'give' her this event with such nice competition lining up though. Belongs at the top of the majority your plays, but be a little defensive in your multi-race plays..
Most Likely: #1 Zenyatta 3-5: Unbeaten, but still needs to pass 'em all; Not a lock..
Best Value: #2 Hysterical Lady 15-1: Will be underbet off last; Expect better here..
Next Best: #6 Ginger Punch 9-2: Not exactly pointed here but expect good effort..
Super Add: #3 Cocoa Beach 8-1: Dazzled in the a.m. and seems poised for big effort..
8th: 39th Las Palmas (Gr. II), F&M-3+, 1m-T (P3, DD, Super)
Most Likely: #1 Black Mamba 5-2
Best Value: #2 Lightmyfirebaby 15-1
Next Best: #6 Valbenny 6-1
Super Add: #5 Lemon Chiffon 10-1; #13 Gotta Have Her 15-1
<$100 P4 Play:
5: 2-4-6-8-10
6: 3-8
7: 1-2-3-4-6
8: 1-2
5x2x5x2 = $100
25th BREEDERS' CUP -- OAK TREE AT SANTA ANITA
DAY TWO -- PRE-SCRATCHES AND FINAL ADJUSTMENTS
1st: 1st BC Marathon, 3+, 12f (P3, DD, Super)
Best Value: #3 Delightful Kiss 8-1
Most Likely: #4 Sixties Icon 2-1
Next Best: #6 Zappa 5-2
Super Add: #7 Big Booster 9-2
2nd: 1st BC Turf Sprint, 3+, 6.6f-T (P4, P3, DD, Super)
Most Likely: #13 Get Funky 9-2
Best Value: #6 Storm Treasure 12-1
Next Best: #8 Diabolical 8-1
Super Add: #7 Rouse the Cat 20-1
Deep Exotics: #3 True to Tradition 15-1
3rd: 2nd BC Dirt Mile, 3+, 1m (P3, DD, Super)
Best Value: #1 Lewis Michael 5-1
Most Likely: #8 Well Armed 3-1
Next Best: #7 Albertus Maximus 4-1
Super Add: #9 Slew's Tiznow 15-1
Deep Exotics: #6 Pyro 20-1
4th: 25th BC Mile (Gr. I), 3+, 1m-T (P6, P3, D, Super)
Most Likely: #4 Goldikova 3-1
Best Value: #5 Daytona 6-1
Next Best: #2 Kip Deville 5-1
Super Add: #9 War Monger 12-1
Deep Exotics: #6 Awesome Gem 20-1
5th: 25th BC Juvenile (Gr. I), 2yo, 8.5f (P3, DD, Super)
Most Likely: #1 Munnings 7-2
Next Best: #11 Midshipman 5-1
Best Value: #6 Silent Valor 15-1
Super Add: #8 Street Hero
Deep Exotics: #13 West Side Bernie 20-1
6th: 2nd BC Juvenile Turf, 2yo, 1m-T (P4, P3, DD, Super)
Most Likely: #7 Coronet of a Baron 9-2
Best Value: #6 Vaquero 20-1
Next Best: #4 Donativum 6-1
Super Add: #12 Grand Adventure 5-1
Deep Exotics: #10 Skipdate 6-1
7th: 25th BC Sprint (Gr. I), 3+, 6f (P3, DD, Super)
Most Likely: #4 MIDNIGHT LUTE 7-2
Next Best: #2 Street Boss 3-1
Best Value: #8 Sing Baby Sing 30-1
Super Add: #3 Fabulous Strike 4-1
8th: 25th BC Turf (Gr. I), 3+, 12f-T (P4, P3, DD, Super)
Most Likely: #11 Eagle Mountain 6-1
Best Value: #5 Winchester 15-1
Next Best: #3 Grand Couturier 6-1
Super Add: #6 Dancing Forever 10-1
9th: 25th BC Classic (Gr. I), 3+, 10f (P3, DD, Super, Super Hi 5)
Most Likely: #9 Curlin 7-5
Best Value: #7 Student Council 20-1
Next Best:#4 Duke of Marmalade 10-1
Super Add: #10 Fairbanks 10-1
Deep Exotics: #6 Smooth Air 50-1
10th: 1st Damascus, 3yo, 7f (DD, Super)
Best Value: #2 Hatta Fort 12-1
Most Likely: #12 Georgie Boy 2-1
Next Best: #6 Into Mischief 4-1
Super Add: #14 Master Daniel 30-1
11th: Oak Tree Derby (Gr. II), 3yo, 9f-T (Super)
Most Likely: #6 Madeo 7-2
Best Value: #9 Woodland Flood 30-1
Next Best: #8 Deal Making 10-1
Super Add: #14 Pearl Fisher 30-1
More analysis, multi-race wagers to come..
Enjoy the Cup and good luck!
Steve