- SELECTIONS: Proud Spell Likely in Oaks
Oaks Day and no end in sight to stalemates that are blocking accessibility of card to horseplayers in many venues. From DRF's Matt Hegarty Thursday:
http://www.drf.com/news/article/94176.html
"If the stalemate is not broken, the only account-wagering operations that will be able to offer wagering on the Derby/Oaks undercard are those that restrict betting to in-state customers. The list of sites includes those run by New York OTBs, the New York Racing Association, the New Jersey Sports and Exposition Authority, Philadelphia Park and Penn National Race Course in Pennsylvania, and operations based in Virginia and Louisiana."
While many are outraged and frustrated by the situation, the solidarity of the horsemen in the dispute is a major accomplishment and they deserve horseplayer's support. In the meantime, those with opportunity to wager Friday and Saturday should have the chance to make money on cards with full, solid fields.
It's been a pleasure to bring the Derby seaon to ATR listeners and DT.com readers the last 2 weeks. Enjoy Oaks-Derby Weekend...
CHURCHILL DOWNS
5th: 14th Aegon Turf Sprint (Gr. III), 3+, 5f-T (P6, P3, DD, Super)
Most Likely: #6 Mr. Nightslinger 2-1
Best Value: #3 Demarcation 8-1
Next Best: #5 Salute the Count 3-1
Exotics Add: #1 Atticus Kristy 10-1
6th: 23rd Louisville (Gr. II), F&M-3+, 8.5f (P3, DD, Super)
Note that #2 Lear's Princess will SCR if the track is muddy..
Most Likely: #7 Ginger Punch 1-1
Best Value: #1 Silver Knockers 10-1
Next Best: #6 Leah's Secret 6-1
7th: 24th Edgewood, 3yo-F, 8.5f-T (P4, P3, DD, Super)
Most Likely: #1 Zee Zee 7-2
Best Value: #3 Magger Bags 6-1
Next Best: #6 Grace and Power 3-1
Exotics Add: #8 My Baby Baby 9-2
8th: 5th Alysheba (Gr. III), 3+, 8.5f (P3, DD, Super)
Most Likely: #3 Magna Graduate 3-1
Best Value: #5 Giant Gizmo 5-1
Next Best: #2 Wanderin Boy 5-2
Exotics Add: #6 Chelokee 3-1
9th: 17th Crown Royal American Turf (Gr. III), 3yo, 8.5f-T (P3, DD, Super Hi-5)
Most Likely: #9 Sailor's Cap 5-1
Best Value: #7 Blackberry Road 8-1
Next Best: #6 Halo Najib 8-1
Exotics Add: #10 Boss Lafitte 6-1
10th: 134th Kentucky Oaks (Gr. I), 3yo-F, 9f (KO-KD Double, DD, Super Hi-5, Super)
1 Golden Doc A (Desormeaux/Abrams) 12-1: Cal-bred looks fabulous physically and has done little wrong getting here; Highly viable exotics option..
2 Absolutely Cindy (Leparoux/Kinmon) 20-1: Nice Arch filly beat the boys at Turfway and should be looking towards lucrative summer grass campaign; Can't fault for taking shot but hard pressed tyo embrace..
3 Awesome Chic (Albarado/Ramos) 20-1: Tampa-Suffolk invader is bred to run forever, and is especially bred to run forever on wet; Cracked 90+ BSF in first 2 turn event, a signal that this trip can produce positive results; Not impossible underneath in tris/supers..
4 Elusive Lady (Coa/Kimmel) 30-1: Grey gal got good early for Kimmel but hasn't been able to advance juvy form much; Just one of a wide middle group behind the top pair..
5 Rasierra (Theriot/Tracy) 50-1: Quietly confident Pacific NW horseman shows up late with supplement of stunningly handsome daughter of Kafwain (via a Moscow Ballet mare); Working up a storm and is as fast as any in the group that will be one-third her price; May not be good enough, but do not leave off any exotic tix..
6 Country Star (Bejarano/Frankel) 4-1: Has obviously had issues with Frankel moving her towards this in fits/starts; Left her off Ashland plays where she was exposed and see no reason to change view of her p[rospects today..
7 Little Belle (Maragh/McLaughlin) 8-1: A.P. Indy miss from KMc has improved but got extremely in Gr. I win last that connections admit they didn't expect; Anticipate a return to reality in this spot, on this surface..
8 Proud Spell (Saez/Jones) 7-2: Toss poly-hating Ashland third and you have best or second best filly in the country; Deserving fave with stablemate running Saturday and looms very tough to stop here..
9 A to the Croft (Borel/McPeek) 20-1: McPeek says forgive prior pair as Menifee miss compromised; Tough to see scenario that gets her a check, though slop would be one thing to her advantage..
10 Bsharpsonata (Camacho/Salzman) 6-1: Pulpit bay is a wonderment, successfully negotiating whatever capable Salzman throws at her; Dirt, turf or synth no issue for bay who is most logical upsetter to ML choice..
11 Pure Clan (Prado/Holthus) 6-1: Chestnut goes third/break for veteran conditioner who was 4th this event in lone prior try; Shouldn't be bothered by wide berth, but may need to get involved earlier as event lacks much front end zip..
12 Eight Belles SCR
Selections:
1. (Most Likely) #8 PROUD SPELL
2. (Next Best) #11 Pure Clan
3. (Best Value) #5 Rasierra
4. (Exotics Add)#10 Bsharpsonata
5. (High 5 Play) #1 Golden Doc A
<$50 Oaks/Derby Double:
$4: 8 with 9-10-12-16-20 = 5 x $4 = $20
$2: 8 with 1-2-6-11-14 = 5 x $2 = $10
$1: 1-5-10-11 with 9-10-12-16-20 = 4 x 5 = $20
Total: $50
<$75 P4 Play:
7: 1-3-6-8
8: 2-3-5
9: 6-7-9
10: 5-8
4x3x2x2 = $72
11th: MSW, F&M-3+, 8.5f (Super)
Most Likely: #4 Great Thought 7-2
Best Value: #1 Novel Twist 15-1
Next Best: #7 Light Showers 5-1
Exotics Add: #6 Allseas 15-1
Good luck!
Steve