- Derby Air Getting Smoother
It is mid-April, and I am minutes from leaving for Kentucky on the annual Derby pilgrimage. Yet I am formulating my first "Derby List" of the season now. In what can only be described as the oddest Derby Trail yet encountered, I kid not when I say I haven't had a clue as to whom among the 2008 sophomores might be the kind of colt, and now filly, that can win the rose blanket.
The crop is laden with under-credentialed 'stars' lacking resumes full enough to generate confidence in their anticipated performances at Churchill Downs. And the few that have shown flashes of brilliance, either this spring or at 2, have quickly diminished those bona-fides by laying eggs along the way. The weekly anticipation and uniform letdown has made this year's version of the road to Louisville feel like the Bataan death march.
But one horse that caught my eye early in the campaign continues to stand out as the most playable choice Derby Day from all the standpoints I like to apply, including price. I've championed Smooth Air since before his Hutcheson win, and with less than three weeks until 'first Saturday' he looks better and better.
For starters, you can be assured there will not be a fitter horse on the grounds at 4th and Central May 3 than Smooth Air, and that will go a long way toward determining the 134th Derby champ. In a season where so many horses are being under-trained, under-raced and handled with kid gloves, Smooth Air is being given the old school treatment by 70 year old Bennie Stutts. He doesn't know any other way.
The Hutcheson had been the biggest race in which Stutts had ever saddled a horse before the Florida Derby eclipsed that career hallmark. For Stutts, getting to the Derby is a life's dream fulfilled, and he knows this will be his only chance to win the biggest race of them all. Given this opportunity, he is doing everything the right way with stamina-building gallops, mile drills, and speed-sharpeners as needed. He will also bring Smooth Air to Churchill relatively early to acclimate.
With all the questions surrounding so many of the runners involved in this strangest of Derby leadups, Smooth Air is the one horse that has done everything you would want your Derby horse to do along the way, and has shown he will run his race under whatever circumstances he encounters. He has the ideal stalking speed you want in a Derby competitor, as it nearly guarantees the opportunity to be near the front at the eighth pole, forever a key determining factor in Derby conclusions. From there, Stutts' training and Smooth Air's heart will need to kick in.
Veteran rider Manny Cruz knows this horse as well as Stutts, and also knows that this is his best chance at Derby immortality. Smooth Air is immune to a bad draw in that he is handy enough to get out of trouble or recover from it, something the 'long-striders' have against them in the bulky Derby field. Cruz has the confidence to place the medium-sized, nimble type of colt anywhere, and his ability to run metronome-like fractions is yet another Derby factor positive in his favor.
Cruz could think of nothing but Kentucky seconds after he jumped off Smooth Air at Hallandale after the Florida Derby as we walked to Stutts and Dan Burns. "No one knows this horse like I do... He does whatever I ask him," Cruz said. "He can win it. He can win it all." Stutts calls Smooth Air a professional racehorse, Cruz a professional jockey and himself a professional trainer. When combined with owner Mount Joy Stable, the nom de course of Brian Burns and his family, there is no set of connections Derby-bound more deserving of racing luck.
In an era where corporate-style 'stables' and ravenous billionaires swallow up potential Derby horses like planet-eating black holes on a Star Trek episode, Calder-based Mount Joy, Burns, Stutts, Cruz and Smooth Air would be the ideal Derby winner and is certainly the ideal rooting interest.
2. BIG BROWN: Fast and unbeaten.. Seasoning an obvious concern as it was for Curlin last year.
3. COLONEL JOHN: Almost by default, the West Coast's best appears at or near the division's top.
4. DENIS OF CORK: Appears poised to make Derby gate and sparkled under Borel in jaw-dropping 4/21 drill.
5. VISIONAIRE: Was lone Blue Grass runner that made up ground at KEE; Has done little wrong on way.
6. Z FORTUNE: Deceptively strong performance in Hot Springs gets forgotten colt to CD in good stead.
7. PYRO: Funny.. I hated him all winter and now like him more after a humiliating Blue Grass loss.
8. COOL COAL MAN: Expect solid effort from Fountain winner as Zito just wanted safe KEE tour inm Blue Grass.
9. EIGHT BELLES: Filly seems fully committed to rose run and has the speed to get involved, but hasn't been beyond 8.5f.
10. TALE OF EKATI: Wood winner seemingly forgotten, but effort was better, and faster, than it looked. Not ready to discount Tagg.