- BREEDERS CUP 2007: Analysis/Selections
Saturday's main Breeders' Cup events appear doomed to be run under difficult conditions with a turf course certain to be squishy at best and a main track potentially a quagmire. While the new grass strip comes well-regarded for its' draining properties, the dirt oval is notorious for its' inability to hold water and has been floated and sealed since mid-week. That reality gives pause for handicapping the 8 dirt tests with an eye on speed horses and just-off types with preferences for sloppy conditions on a surface already prone to kindness for runners of that ilk.
It may be a frustrating type of wagering day... Don't fret or panic and abandon your strategies completely under trying circumstances. Adjust appropriately based on what you're seeing and sensing and spread wider to include horses that may carry further on the rain-slicked surface than you gave them credit for when you capped initially. Remember it typically takes just one BC race hit to make your day a profiable one...
Good luck and enjoy the Cup!
BREEDERS CUP -- MONMOUTH PARK (Day 2)
Superfectas in all.. Pre-Scratches..
1st: 26th Pegasus (Gr. III), 3yo, 9f (P5, P3, DD)
Best Value: #3 Slew's Tizzy 9-2: Aced LS Derby on loose surface..
Most Likely: #5 Now a Victor 5-1: Spots experience; Trombo usually tough with these..
Exotics Use: #7 Bwana Bull 2-1: H'dorfer Gr. III winner circling back..
Super Add: #6 Helsinki 7-2: Travers show shocker bred to love it wet..
2nd: 56th Miss Woodford, 3yo-F, 6f (P3)
Head-scratcher with well-matched bunch..
Best Value: #8 Marina Ballerina 15-1: Aquainted with Lezcano and mud..
Most Likely: #7 Sheets 4-1: Scored with Robby in wet CRC Gr. III..
Exotics Use: #11 Coco Belle 6-1: Moss homebred a wire threat under GoGo..
Super Add: #12 International Fever 12-1: 2x stake winner can utilize crown for stalking trip..
3rd: The Select, 3yo, 6 (P3)
Best Value: #9 Silver Source 10-1: Can attend pace and wet not an issue..
Most Likely: #2 BUFFALO MAN 8-1: CamGam colt had signaled 'special' before injury..
Exotics Use: #7 Piratesonthelake 3-1: DiVitto adept with sprinters; Scored at KY Cup..
Super Add: #5 Unbridled Trust 20-1; #6 Double Action 7-2
4th: BC JUVENILE FILLIES (Gr. I), $2MM, 2yo-F, 8.5f (P4, P3)
Fascinating race and maybe the day's best wagering opportunity with a bit of everything signed on and 3-1 Indian Blessing a vulnerable favorite..
Best Value: #9 Smarty Deb 30-1: Ignore Emerald Downs resume and focus on Smart Strike pedigree with Harwood's 4/4 red who's improved with added ground and blasted boys last; Bred to excel in slop and cleverly arrived here three weeks ago to prepare for this; Fully capable of starting Cup Day 2 off with a bang..
Most Likely: #10 Proud Spell 5-1: Jones first caught eyes working with fair sex trio last year, and Cowboy Larry thinks Proud Citizen daughter is a rare one; Has shown rating gear building 3/3 career record one-turning, including Gr. II Matron, and gives every indication of thriving with intro to 2nd turn; Has drilled great, and while wet an unknown, believe this miss to the one to build around in tough heat..
Exotics Use: #12 Grace Anatomy 10-1: O'Neill Alcibiades show pony arrives here as bit of a wiseguy horse after 'Street Sense '06-style' early move effort at KEE; Aldebaran-Storm Cat mare product should negotiate wet fine under new pilot Dettori, and merits consideration for any slot in superfecta; One more candidate in wide open affair..
Super Add: #8 Izarra 6-1: McAnally bay jumped forward in route debut and nearly caught Baffert pacesetter in Gr. I Oak Leaf, long a key race for BC Juvy gals; By Distorted Humor out of Broad Brush mare, may be best wet track candidate in race; Even with for from Oak Leaf scratching, pace to chase seems assured; Big shot..
NOTES: #1 Phantom Income 30-1: Grey has been lauded by Violette since summer and righted ship at Swamp in NATC; Trainer/jock confident in two-turn aptitude (note slow 1m work 10/14) and price will be right; Live longshot.. #14 A to the Croft 10-1: Draw diminished appeal, but McPeek chestnut has GS runnered-up v. 3 top damsels, keeps Kent D. and adds blinks; For deep exotics..
5th: BC JUVENILE (Gr. I), $2MM, 2yo, 8.5f (P3)
Best Value: #1 Z Humor 12-1: Getting tired of watching Zayat runners score at will and Mott-Desormeaux railrunner may be next and at a square price; Interestingly adds blinks; will save all the ground and is bred perfectly for anticipated conditions..
Most Likely: #2 War Pass 5-2: Champagne winner not a productive BC Juvy prep angle of late, but Zito-LaPenta colt can reverse that trend making own luck on front end..
Exotics Use: #7 Pyro 6-1: One of two Asmussens signed on (Kodiak Kowboy), Champagne runner-up was moving well late only to fall short of one above; Moved forward there, and though regression a concern on short turnaround, trainer has displayed ability to get them to hold form; More worried about traffic but bred well for off-going; Hard to exclude..
Super Add: #9 Old Man Buck 20-1: First blush turf/poly player offers value as victim of circumstances regarding his placement; McPeek swears by Hold That Tiger red's main track aptitude, and wet may guild the lily for stalker-type that gets pilot upgrade in Bejarano; Blinkers part of surprise package candidate who is lone entrant making 8.5f start..
6th: BC F&M TURF (Gr. I), $2MM, F&M-3+, 11f-T (P6, P3)
Best Value: #9 Danzon 12-1: Royal Academy 4yo nearly stunned CD Turf Classic (Gr. I) field on Derby undercard on yielding soil; Merits consideration in top slots under Leparoux..
Most Likely: #4 PASSAGE OF TIME 7-2: Exits increasingly 'key' Prix Vermeille where third behind subsequent E.P. Taylor winner Mrs. Lindsey; Mastered off going as juvy and adds domestic rider familiar with course; Big edge..
Exotics Use: #7 Argentina 12-1 Better than she looks despite not winning since getting green card; Frankel miss one of few here comfortable this trip; Overlay..
Super Add: #12 Precious Kitten 30-1 West Coast doll came East and was excellent runner up to Vacare in Gr. II First Lady; Soft and added ground both question marks, but will be in front turning for home at huge price; Eligible to stay on to boost tri/super..
7th: BC SPRINT (Gr. I), $2MM, 3+, 6f (P3)
Best Value: #6 Commentator 12-1: Outstanding when right and consistantly good fresh; Zito gelding perfect on off track and motivated rider takes reins..
Most Likely: #2 Midnight Lute 2-1: Sprint favorites rarely win, and this oversize Baffert beast has a lot going against him in this spot; Hate the cutback and fact he'll have to come from out of it, but is so immensely talented that he remains impossible to exclude or stand against as the likliest winner; Respect totally..
Exotics Use: #1 Smokey Stover 7-2: Aleo and Gilchrist return to the Cup with another brilliant runner in this 4yo Put It Back gelding; Should sit ideal stalking trip behind speediest of speeds and try to swing out for homestretch attack; Visited here and set track record; Square price and honest chance for the whole thing..
Super Add: #4 Talent Search 15-1 Shuman red by Catienus may get overlooked and has been in BC Sprint winning area code all year; Beat modest lot when winning Teddy Drone this strip, but did it in under 1:09.0 earning 103 BSF; One of several with exotics designs..
NOTES: Would not toss #5 Kelly's Landing (20-1) out of hand despite absense from starting gates leading up to this; Working well for spot and Dettori scored on this gelding in desert Cup; Certainly employable in exotics..
Early P4 Play:
6x2x1x4 = $48
8th: BC MILE (Gr. I), $2MM, 3+, 8f-T (P4, P3)
Freely admit to having little feel for always quirky event.. Will be using ML fave #13 Excellent News lightly and #12 Purim in my own plays and multi-race wagers..
Best Value: #11 Silent Name 30-1: Bay 5yo being utterly ignored here this week, but makes debut for Frankel; Tote booster if able to return to good form..
Most Likely: #8 Kip Deville 6-1: Back to where he was in spring after misfires on foolish West Coast jaunts; 6 of 9 this trip and more than acceptable price..
Exotics Use: #14 Remarkable News 12-1: Exceedingly classy 5yo should be able to get to turn first and save the ground the rest of the way under clever Ramon; Wire threat..
Super Add: #9 Nobiz Like Shobiz 8-1 Choosing to trust Tagg's judgement with converted Classic soph who had been intended on trip to HOL for the Gr. I Derby; Only now really getting hang of lawn despite three straight wins; Castellano prefers Trippi's Storm, but Johnny V. may be a good fit..
9th: BC DISTAFF (Gr. I), $2MM, F&M-3+, 9f (P3)
Best Value: #6 Bear Now 15-1: Savvy Canadian conditioner always enters with intent and Tiznow filly will adore slop while loping on/near lead; Live, ready and dangerous turning for home with H'dorfer below..
Most Likely: #12 Hystericalady 8-1: Plenty of frontstretch available for DistHumor 4yo to get to turn without ground loss, and from there it's up to Castro; Ignore synthetic surface form and focus on Molly Pitcher performance this oval; Stands out..
Exotics Use: #11 Unbridled Belle 9-2: Pletcher Broken Vow 4yo immediately retutned to level of DEL H. performance with Beldame score: a good sign that she's capable of big effort again here; Mud a question mark..
Super Add: #1 Balance 20-1: Hofmans' TGulch bay accomplished and sitting on go for stalking trip from inside; Scored on wet-fast SA surface in February; Price is right..
10th: BC TURF (Gr. I), $3MM, 3+, 12f-T (DD)
Best Value: #2 Red Rocks 7-2 Back to defend title and gets Lasix as he did in '06 visit; Racey looking Galileo 4yo arrives here certainly as good as last year and could pull same stunt..
Most Likely: #7 Dylan Thomas 7-5 Imposing Danehill bay trying to reverse 'Arc Curse' on three week turnaround; O'Brien amazed by colt's continence and increasing legend; Murtaugh likened MTH surface to Ascot's Friday, spot where Magnier-Tabor product aced Grp I 'George & Liz' in July; His race to lose..
Exotics Use: #6 English Channel 5-2: Quality 5yo 2/2 this strip, but off-going may not suit so well; Always comes with run, but expect board hit at best..
Super Add: #1 Fri Guy 50-1: Romans-Zayat red will set pace and save ground, and should get little pressure; Has run races close enough to consider as exotics ladder-hanger at bonus tote..
11th: BC CLASSIC (Gr. I), $5MM, 10f
An edition of this race like few before it: A remarkably well-match group.. Take the one you've enjoyed the most as there appears to be little seperating the 4 excellent sophomores and 4yo Lawyer Ron..
Best Value: #3 Any Given Saturday 4-1: Haskell winner appears right type for this race flow, scenario, course condition..
Most Likely: #4 Curlin 3-1: Pitts, then Asmussen, deserve all the credit for making the most of super-talented Street Cry son; Never worse than third since bow, displayed tenacity in JCGC score and will need to utilize every tool in the box to cap campaign; Frankly rooting against, but looms the one to beat..
Exotics Use: #1 Lawyer Ron 5-2: Magical year for Pletcher's Langfuhr 4yo who may finally have found the right spot to be rank; Gets first run on Hard Spun, but will need to battle others for all the money; Big chance..
Super Add: #2 Street Sense 3-1: Wonderful Nafzger colt is ready, but takes the worst of it under potential scenario of slop; Will be hard to close on this strip, but expect game an effort as possible in career farewell..
4x3x1x4 = $48
Breeders' Cup kicks off its' newest wrinkle Friday with the three divisional races added as an initial phase of an expected wide expansion plan. Poor weather threatens the entire event, with heavy rains expected...
MONMOUTH PARK - BREEDERS' CUP (10/26-Day 1)
Superfectas in all..
5th: 1st Inside Information BC, 3yo-F, 8.5f (P6, P3)
Best Value: #1 Talkin About Love 5-2
Most Likely: #3 Tessa Blue 9-5
Exotics Use: #2 Boca Grande 2-1
Super Add: #4 Lost Etiquette 7-2
6th: 1st Epitome BC, 2yo-F, 1m-T (P3)
Best Value: #2 Sea Chanter 9-2
Most Likely: #5 LIFE IS SWEET 6-1
Exotics Use: #4 Namaste's Wish 4-1
Super Add: #8 Annie Skates 5-1
7th: 1st Favorite Trick BC, 2yo, 6f (P4, P3)
Utilizing #7 Officer Frank in multis as cover..
Best Value: #8 West Coast Coach 4-1
Most Likely: #3 Lantana Mob 3-1
Exotics Use: #5 Law Enforcement 7-2
Super Add: #1a (POE) Indy Joe 8-1
8th: 1st BC FILLY AND MARE SPRINT, F&M-3+, 6f (P3, DD w/ BC Spr)
Best Value: #4 Maryfield 15-1: Overlaid price inviting on O'Neill off pace plugger who is 3/4 on wet tracks and appears to have ideal pace to close into; Cuts back from 7f and has plenty of time since thrilling Ballerina score..
Most Likely: #7 LA TRAVIATA 5-2: Perhaps most likely Cup winner, $1MM Coolmore miss wisely opts for fair sex foes; Would happily like it wet, and has scintillated in a.m.'s since trio of facile wins..
Exotics Use: #1 Miss Macy Sue 6-1: Von Hemel overachiever 5/6 this annum including Gr. III Winning Colors score, and looks to parlay rail draw into ideal stalking trip; Signaled readiness with Chicago blowout 10/12 (:58.2)..
Super Add: #6 Oprah Winney 6-1: Dutrow's Royal Academy grey never out of superfecta career and regularly runs well fresh; Draws inside fave and could make turn access a challenge for that one; Contributes to anticpated pace battle and eligible to stay on in any slot in great Cup opener..
NOTES: Taking stand against Dream Rush who missed scheduled Gallant Bloom start and will be harassed early and often; Protecting in multis..
9th: 1st BC JUVENILE TURF, 2yo, 1m-T (DD)
Best Value: #11 Texas Fever 30-1: Victory Gallop bay from capable Stidham telegraphs turf aptitude with solid Poly form including classy KY Cup Juvenile score (Gr. III) at Cincy; Acquires services of Gomez who can draft off pair to his left from opening bell..
Most Likely: #9 Prussian 3-1: Superbly-bred Mott bay demollished Toga maidens in 8.5f lawn bow before professional Gr. III Summer score north of the border; Needs to progress from prior pair, but in hands of red hot J-T tandem should adjust to any scenario..
Exotics Use: #4 Cherokee Triangle 10-1: Maker bay most experienced sodhopper of the domestic players signed on; Bested twice by McPeek's 'Buck' who goes Saturday, and likely beat little in Bozier City blowout 9/22, but draws well for stalking voyage under Robby..
Super Add: #10 Preachin Man 50-1: NATC upsetter helmed by highly-skilled conditioner. owned by FL breeding bros: a group that wouldn't be here to get embarassed; Songandaprayer OK as turf pop, and Werner superb on lawn bows, stretchouts..
NOTES: Taking home run swing in curious new event, protecting the Euros (#'s 5-8-12) in multis and .10 Super keys with prices..
10/26: With liklihood now of serious rain Friday, the turf course is nearly guaranteed to be no better than yielding and possibly soft. ACHILL ISLAND becomes more and more prominant under those conditions and must be used in individual race wagers...
10th: 1st BC DIRT MILE, 3+, 1m-70y (DD w/ Turf Mile)
Best Value: #9 Xchanger 6-1: Exchange Rate grey has been solid plus when keeping to similar kind, and looked best of all at Meadowlands when falling short of Diamond Stripes/Magna Grad in Gr. II Cup; Shuman runner has displayed variety of pace adjustments and is bred to take to slop..
Most Likely: #1 DISCREET CAT 2-1: Taking positive view of maligned Godolphin bay that lays over these if anywhere close to form that made him 'next great thing' in '06; Dull Vosburgh may have been better than it looked, earning a figure that could serve as OK launch point 2nd off long break..
Exotics Use: #7 Park Avenue Ball 15-1: Jersey-connected up and down, and pointed for this since announcement of race's inception; Never out of money this oval, 3/5 at trip and not averse to inclement weather..
Super Add: #3 Wanderin Boy 8-1: Square price on Zito 6yo who is tough when right and perfect at distance; Another with precip preferences, and threat if firing best shot off series of nice half mile drills..