Soph stakes a backdrop for Big Cap Day
By kasept. Filed in 2016 |Tags: Santa Anita, Tampa Bay
SANTA ANITA
POST-SCRATCHES
4th: MSW, 3yo-F, 6f (P3, DD)
Best Value: #4 Street Sweets 5-1: Dorf firster has win early tools.. 2nd
Next Best: #5 Crimson and Gold 5-2: 2nd timer got education in debut.. 4th
Exotics Use: #8 Rizzi’s Honors 7-2: Blacker barn strong in 2nd outings.. 3rd
Super Add: #2 Street Surrender 5-1: Zippy at Los Al; Street Boss 18% w/ FTS.. WON ($14.60)
5th: MSW, 3yo, 6.5f (P3, DD)
This is a serious group with half the field owning pedigrees for success and positive worktabs. Baffert (American Freedom-SCR/Magical Mystery) and Eurton (Giant Expectations/Wise Curlin) have strong hands lining up, while Hollendorfer offers Seventh Sense, the 2nd out Turkish-bred full brother to Reneesgotzip. Hammer touted 10-1 Street to Indy from Ray Bell who also got a nice push from clocker Andy Harrington. Art Sherman sends Mucho Chrome (4-1), a half to fast 5x winner The Truth and K G for 3rd career start. Deep, difficult group to decipher..
Best Value: #7 Seventh Sense 5-1: Draws better for 2nd try; Adds hood.. WON ($17.00)
Next Best: #9 Magical Mystery 5-2: $350k Unbridled’s Song held own v. Hopportunity.. 9th
Exotics Use: #11 Street to Indy 10-1: Street Sense firster lures Smith.. 5th
Super Add: #12 Giant Expectations 6-1: Botched break in debut; 3 sharp drills since.. 2nd
6th: 16th Kilroe Mile (G1), 4+, 1m-T (P6, P3, DD)
Santa Anita was inundated with rain late yesterday, enough to force cancellation of day’s late double, so lawn will have give today. Race flow appears a chess match among the 5 key players: Om, What a View, Bal a Bali, Bolo, Midnight Storm..
Best Value: #3 Bal a Bali 7-2 3rd
Next Best: #6 Midnight Storm 3-1 4th
Exotics Use: #4 Bolo 2-1 2nd
Super Add: #1 Om 3-1 6th
7th: 79th San Felipe (G2), 3yo, 8.5f (P3, DD)
NOTE: Cupid is SCR’d.. Thoroughly entertaining SA Derby prep anticipated with West Coast showing off for Derbyphiles with division leader Nyquist not even a participant. Odd to think of a $650k purchase as blue collar, but Mor Spirit is by a stallion (Eskendereya) that’s already been exiled to Japan and owns a grinding style that leaves observers underwhelmed. However, he is a relentless pursuer that’s built a 5/3-2-0 record at 4 racetracks and is always doing his best running late. While I think he’ll be even better at 9f and beyond, he gets a pace to chase here and is the right favorite (2-1) and horse to beat. In a season with many lightly raced types trying to make a name for themselves, Exaggerator has authentic bottom (7/3-2-0-1 overall; 5/2-2-0-1 in graded stakes) and is being handled the old school way. Rallied wide versus 2yo Champion Nyquist in 7f seasonal debut and should be grappling for honors late with Mor Spirit. Uncle Lino and I Will Score sparred before Mor Spirit caught them in the Lewis and both will now have to deal with the added pace pressure of Danzing Candy and Smokey Image. Had indifferent expectation of Cal-bred Smokey Image coming in to this event, but a review of his 7f Golden State win at DMR will demand respect. Outside draw may provide perfect setting to allow Espinoza to get him to settle. May very be the one to catch in late stages. Fascinating group and back half of the six pack will be bitterly disappointed..
Most Likely: #3 Mor Spirit 2-1 2nd
Next Best: #7 Exaggerator 5-2 3rd
Exotics Use: #6 Smokey Image 7-2 5th
Super Add: #1 Uncle Lino 8-1 4th
8th: MSW, 3yo, 1m-T (P4, P3, DD)
Most Likely: #7 Beach Patrol 7-2 WON ($5.40)
Best Value: #5 Clear the Way 8-1 3rd
Next Best: #11 Sixes 4-1 8th
Exotics Use: #2 Blyde River 20-1 9th
9th: 78th San Carlos (G2), 4+, 7f (P3, DD)
Another event where more than half the field looks capable. The mystery player here is Coastline who is going well in the D’amato camp, a generous 12-1 and at his best in assignments like this..
Best Value: #2 Coastline 12-1 2nd
Next Best: #1 Calculator 5-2 3rd
Exotics Use: #8 Kobe’s Back 2-1 WON ($6.00)
Super Add: #3 Wild Dude 5-2 5th
10th: 79th Santa Anita H. (G1), 4+, 10f (DD)
May not be the most glamorous Big Cap ever, but some quality elders that look to be highly competitive. East Coast invaders Effinex and General a Rod add to intrigue..
Best Value: #3 Donworth 3-1 7th
Next Best: #5 Effinex 2-1 3rd
Exotics Use: #8 Imperative 3-1 4th
Super Add: #4 General a Rod 4-1 9th
11th: 13th China Doll, 3yo-F, 1m-T (Super Hi-5)
Most Likely: #9 Pacific Heat 9-5 4th
Next Best: #1 Lady Valeur 4-1 2nd
Best Value: #3 Jeremy’s Legacy 12-1 6th
Exotics Use: #5 Kiss N Scat 8-1 9th
Super/Hi-5: #7 Nodiac 5-1 3rd
P4 Grid:
8: 7 (A), 5-11 (B), 1-2-4-12 (C)
9: 1-2 (A), 3-8 (B), 4-5 (C)
10: 3-5 (A), 4-8 (B), 1-2-6 (C)
11: 9 (A), 1-3 (B), 2-4-5-7 (C)
Simple (A+B): 3x4x4x3 = 144 x .50 = $72
TAMPA BAY DOWNS
POST-SCRATCHES
11th: 36th Tampa Bay Derby (G2), 3yo, 8.5f (DD)
Nice assembly for this Oldsmar meet highlight with G3 Sam Davis trifecta joining 5 others that were last seen in G1 or G2 stakes. Three players make their sophomore debut here as Riker, Brody’s Cause and Tale of S’avall look to gain immediate traction on the classic trail. Star Hill, (who I thought was the best 2yo at Saratoga that didn’t break their maiden), and Repole/Pletcher Uncle Mo bay Outwork get 3yo two turn stakes opportunities at double digit prices. Pace will be no slower than honest and more likely hot..
Most Likely: #4 Economic Model 5-1 9th
Best Value: #5 Star Hill 15-1 3rd
Exotics Use: #3 Outwork 12-1 2nd
Super Add: #7 Destin 9-2 WON ($9.20)
Hi-5 Play: #8 Brody’s Cause 5-2 7th