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#1
01-16-2009, 01:14 AM
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Gulfstream Analysis - Friday 01-16-09
From my blog
I have looked up and down the Gulfstream Park card for this Friday and I am really impressed with the new secretary of racing. He has put together some tremendous weekday cards in the first couple weeks of the meet and I would like to complement him on the legitmacy and competiveness of the fields compared to the 2008 season. The changes made to the turf course and the extensive list of good jockeys that have made Gulfstream their home this Spring have boosted this meet to the top of my agenda every day I handicap. Friday - January 16th - Gulfstream Park Race 1 - Clm20000N2L (Fillies) - 5 1/2 Furlongs CONTENDERS: #5 - Box of Charms: The two works leading up to this race are enough to bode confidence in this one. Lezcano should have him on the front end and Wayne Catalano is tremendous coming off of lengthy layoffs. #7 - Trippin' Easy: In for Mulligan in this one, Vivian trains (24%). Looks to be the one coming from off the pace in this sprint. I think she can make up the ground with a ground-saving trip to beat these at 5-1 M/L. Consistent 63-77 Beyers in every start. NEXT BEST: #3 - Her Greatness: Comes in here 2nd off the layoff. Showed speed at Calder and gets top jockey John Velasquez to take the mount. Beyers don't add up, but you can't discount improvemnet off the 51 off the layoff. #4 - Ruby Lipstick: Has been running consistent Beyer's at Calder and finally broke her maiden two back. Longshot possibility for Potter. I think there is too much speed in here to hang on, but you never know if the trainer decides to switch strategies. #9 - Thebandisloose: You get a jockey who is 1/33 on a 3-1 M/L horse who probably deserves to be the favorite off that 70 breaking her maiden. The problem is the jockey change and the soft field faced in the maiden victory. Your call how good that last win was. Race 2 - Clm40000 (40-35) - 6 Furlongs CONTENDERS: #2 - I'm It Wayne: Looks to be a player off the slight layoff for Catalano and Calabrese. The last effort was dismal, but Silver City looks like the real deal and he smoked that field. Must respect after the group he lost to in the last race. #4 - We Have Ignition: 2nd off the layoff for Croll. Marquez stays on and at 8-1 M/L I think there is a lot of value in this colt. Broke maiden at The Meadowlands and came back in a tough spot after a few months off at Calder where he got outrun badly. Has a win at the distance and is bred for the distance. Respect #5 - Clash of Arms: Posts two straight bullet works leading into this one. The horse won at Laurel pretty easily in his 4th start. A lot of the ones he has faced have one and this one will most likely be bet down from the 4-1 M/L. Not worried about the drop in class. Belongs on the ticket NEXT BEST: #1 - Sayers: J.Bridgmohan has been riding pretty weak lately and hasn't given me any confidence on anything he gets on. He may have the best horse in this race, but I can not play him in the top spot. This horse has posted back to back 70+ Beyers, but a smart bettor would probably key this horse for 2nd and 3rd in this short field. I would demand at least 2-1 if you are going to use him on top. Race 3 - Clm50000(50-45) (Fillies) - 5 Furlongs (TURF) CONTENDERS: #10 - Don't Stop Dreamin': Broome is going to have this one in the right form off of the layoff and it doesn't mean quite as much that he hasn't race since August when they are running this short on the turf. The trainer is 30% with this length of layoffs and the horse has posted 5/6 ITM finishes at this distance. MUST USE #6 - All Bets Down: Leparoux and Maker are teaming up again today and have not hit the winners circle since opening day. They will get it going again at some point in this meet and it could start today. This horse ran a 42 at Turfway on the poly last time, but he seemed to really like the grass in his four starts. I am going to forgive the last attempt for that reason and respect the connections enough to give this one a shot for the top prize. PLAY ON THE BOARD NEXT BEST: #1 - Fancy Stepper: In for Ralph Ziadie after running some pretty decent races at Calder earning a few paychecks. I think he could sit off the pace and pounce at the top of the stretch. He could surprise at a price, but I would just use him in $0.10 supers and the bottom of tri's to boost payouts. Top rider John Velasquez can't hurt either, right? #2 - Acquired Cat: Alexander and Coa team up with this one that gets a prime post position for this sprint race. He has posted some consistent Beyers in the 80's in his last two in New York. He comes back about 4 months later now and could need one start, but with the pace that is going to be up front she might have a chance to get to these at the wire even off such a long layoff. Tough call #3 - Dite Moi: Kirk Ziadie has been on fire lately and probably has the most intriguing horse in the race. She has never ran lest than a 70 Beyer figure and off the layoff (29%) you must respect this one with the her ability to kick home. Never tried the distance or the turf, but the breeding is right for this type of race and you can't dismiss this one. Probably should be in the group above this one. #8 - House Quest: I had him left out, but the past three Beyer numbers deserve serious consideration. I really think he is going to get outrun at this short distance. Be very wary of this horse because I have a feeling he isn't going to break that well and it could really cost him being on the ticket. If he does get out and get the lead he definitely is the fastest horse in the race, no questions. Race 4 - MdSpWt 40k - 1 Mile (1 turn) CONTENDERS: #1 - Marl: Has already ran well back off the layoff once, so I think that he can do it again. The works this horse has posted make me really like this one in this race today. Love to see the back to back 6 furlong works breezing and handily. Means a lot in my handicapping and I definitely think this is one of the safer plays today. #7 - Beau Jester: Zito doesn't usually win at all first time out, but he is much better 2nd out and that is exactly what this one is doing today. At, 12-1 M/L there is very good value with this play today. Didn't really show much at all against a very, very competitive field in his last start, but I think he can get the job done today. NEXT BEST: #3 - Chief Bear: They paid $350k for this horse and he hasn't broken his maiden in five attempts. Comes from Canada in this start, but seemed to like the one turn mile a lot better this Spring than anything else he tried in '08. Must respect the love for the track. #6 - War of the Ranges: The trainer does not win first out of the gate, but keep this one on your tickets. they paid $240k for this four year old and this is it's first time to the track. Hasn't worked tremendously, but the horse is bred for the distance and the trainer is winning at 21% #8 - Battle Plan: Pletcher/Velasquez team up once again with a 2nd time starter. They connected with a nice priced first timer on opening day, but this horse is going to have to improve off the layoff to contend with these. The breeding is tremendous, but he has to prove more on the track. Respect the connections Race 5 - Alw16000s (Fillies) - 7 1/2 Furlongs (TURF) CONTENDERS: #10 - Irish Cover: Piesa/Lopez are teaming uo with this one who has three ITM finishes in as many starts as the distance.. The problem, NO WINS. I think this one has gone through her conditions properly and contend in this group at 6-1 M/L. I have a slight feeling she could be higher than that when the race goes off. #12 - Dottie Booth: I would really hammer this horse at the windows if she wasn't stuck out in no man's land. Leparoux and Maker probably have the best horse in the race, but I am not sure if it can overcome the post position. It is 7 1/2 furlongs so they are going to make two full turns, but this one is going to really have to hustle to get where she wants to be. NEXT BEST: #2 - Trigger Fish Lane: Simply because of the love of the track and the wins at the distance. Not many races are run at 7 1/2 furlongs, so if you have a win at it, I'll respect it. #3 - Roll the Di: Makes a lot of sense coming in from New York for Ritvo, but the horse posts an 0 for 4 at this distance and has never tried the Gulfstream grass. Keep her underneath on your tickets, but you make the call whether she is worthy of any win money. Not in my book #4 - Black Mink: Has one win in one start at the distance and is also coming in from Woodbine. I really don't know what to make of these Canadian breds, but this one looks to have the talent and speed to compete in this race. I would not completely discount from the top prize either, but I will wait to see the kind of money she takes at the windows. Race 6 - Mcl80000 (80-70) - 6 Furongs CONTENDERS: #5 - De Soto's Gold: This first time starter looks like the real deal on the training track and I have a feeling he is going to take a lot of money on the tote board. He has the breeding to win in this type of race and none of them are overly impressive for an $80k tag. The 6 furlong work always gets me looking, Desormeaux helps. #9 - Fullofsong: 2nd time on the track here and Piesa is pushing the right buttons right now. The drop in for a tag is kind of worrysome considering they paid $95k for the horse and he is up for less, but the horse showed speed and quit like a lot of firsters do. The addition of lasix could make all the difference in this one. #11 - Big Flirt: Bet heavily in debut at The Spa this summer came back two months later disappointed again. Drops in here for Wesley Ward after this horse probably had some high expectations for it. I am not quite sure what to make of this move and the horse is probably going to be bet down to similar odds or lower than he was in his first two starts. You make the call on this one as well, I probably will lean with one of the two above at a higher price than this horse. NEXT BEST: #1 - Cross Village: Ran at Churchill this Summer against a pretty decent group, but off a six month layoff I find it hard to conisder for the top spot. You have to leave in because of the barn, jockey, and trainer. Respect the connections #4 - Bold Vindication: He is the lone horse in this race in for $70k not $80k, but he is also 0 for 6. The horses TOM number at this distance is 415. they paid a pretty good penny for him and if he can run to anything of how he is bred, he could be worth a shot. Edgar Prado up, can't beat that. #6 - Sharpsburg Shuffle: 3rd start for an okay outfit that might be worth taking a chance on, but be careful what kind of odds you take on this one. I would demand a pretty good price for this one and another reminder he is coming out of that race with Silver City in it where he ran a game 5 lengths back. KEEP AN EYE ON THE TOP PRIZE AT 10-1+ Race 7 - Alw42000N$Y - 1 1/16 Mile (TURF) CONTENDERS: #7 - Smart Shot: Leparoux/Trombetta got okay run out of one yesterday, and I think this one has a much better chance. 3rd start, drops from a stakes race at Churchill into this race where he can be very competitive. Definitely fast enough to win off the layoff. Should be in the right form. #8 - Swinging Bernie: Likely to be bet down close to the fave in this one and deservedly so. The last race at Aqueduct was impressive enough to move him into a nice allowance race off a two month layoff. Coa stays in this turf race which is a big plus. Pletcher trains, so you should definitely keep this one in the mix on all of your tickets. #9 - Rescue Squad: Likely favorite in a pretty contentious field. Prado got this one to break in its debut at Belmont in October. Had a little bit of a layoff, but should be ready to go after posting a string of consistent works over the Gulfstream turf course. Safe play on the board. NEXT BEST: #1 - Zouloushe: Broome trains another one today and you really could get some odds on this gelding. He has placed in his one start at this distance and the Beyer numbers and the rail could help this speed horse who should only get pressure from the #3 on the inside. #6 - Tire Kicker: Hennig brings this one in from New York after running him in the Nashua - Grade III a few months ago. He thought a lot of this one who broke his maiden at Belmont at 18-1 in October. Laid him off after the stakes race and he has been working consistenly at Pay(t). Probably the class in the race if he runs back to his previous form. Race 8 - OC 75k/N$Y - 7 furlongs CONTENDERS: #1 - On Board Again: Looks like the lock of the day based on all the contentious and competive races early in the card. After posting three consecutive Beyers in the 100's back in 2006 this 6 year old could not repeat that in 2008. Has been working well and long enough to be a single in all of your vertical wagers. #1A - Fidello: Part of the entry and also deserving of respect. If this is the horse that gets in (Leparoux entered on both) I would also use #6 -Ling Ling Qi. Other than that I think this horse is probably a stone cold single. Race 9: Mcl40000 (40-35) - 1 1/16 Mile (TURF) CONTENDERS: #3 - Humble Pie: Could surprise at a price. $130k for horse running for a $40k tag. Looks like the debut went a miss somewhere along the lines. Took a little bit of money and has breeding to win at this distance in the first start (8/110) #5 - Unaccountable: The ITM finishes at the distance and against the competition faced earn this one the top notch in the finale on Friday. This is probably the race I liked the least on the card, but this one has a good shot. NEXT BEST: #2 - Rapid Mon: Top turf jockey JJ Castellano in the saddle in the best post position on the turf course. Respect the connections that won yesterday at a significant price if I remember correctly. Shouldn't get any pace pressure from any of the inside horses which could lead to victory if JJ can get him settled down alone on the front end.
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#2
01-16-2009, 08:51 AM
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Quote:
Dan, be careful with what you are saying about the outside post. So far this meet there have been 15 turf races carded at 7 1/2 furlongs or 1 mile, both which start relatively close to the turn. Of those 15 races, 47% (7 winners) have come from post 8 and wider. Post 8: 3 winners Post 9: 1 winner Post 10: 1 winner (2nd and 3rd place finishers were from the 12 and 15 hole) Post 12: 2 winners There have been 13 turf races at 1 1/16 and 38% (5 winners)have come from post 8 and wider Post 8: 1 winner Post 9: 1 winner Post 11: 1 winner Post 12: 1 winner (3rd place finisher from 14 hole) Post 16: 1 winner (3rd place finisher from 15 hole) Don't talk yourself off a horse just becuase the outside post. It's not near the disadvantage you think it is.
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#3
01-16-2009, 10:27 AM
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The rail is out at freaking 36 feet. Really dims my excitement to bet Broome's horse in the 3rd.
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#4
01-16-2009, 10:53 AM
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And before you toss Roll The Di you might watch her grass races in New York this summer. A horse who developed a nice closing 1/4 at a shorter distance off two wins this summer/fall. Toss at your own risk but watch those replays
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#5
01-16-2009, 11:09 AM
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Quite the ambitious spot for her, eh? /sarcasm
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#6
01-16-2009, 10:33 PM
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Thank you for the post position statistics. I have a friend who keeps track of Gulfstream and told me to beware of outside the 8 on the turf, but as you have posted it isn't as significant as my buddy thinks.
__________________
Please become part of the effort to keep Canterbury Park kicking, Join the RACINO effort at www.racinonow.com
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#8
01-17-2009, 01:41 PM
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Very impressive move on the far turn. I wish I would have got to see the race replays before I left for the track.
I ended up not using in any of my pick 3's and paid the price for it. Nice call.
__________________
Please become part of the effort to keep Canterbury Park kicking, Join the RACINO effort at www.racinonow.com
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