#101
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There have been so many pools, though, that there is probably bettor fatigue. Plus, the pools seem to fluctuate a bit - Pool 5 had over $200,000 in the win pool, Pool 4 had less. And who is going to keep betting on Tiz the Law or Honor A. P. if you got them at a much better price earlier on? Tiz the Law was 5/1 in Pool 4, 2/1 in Pool 5, and actually ticked up to 5/2 in Pool 6. Honor A. P. was 15/1 in Pool 4, 6/1 in Pool 5, and stayed at 6/1 in Pool 6. Neither Uncle Chuck nor Art Collector were in Pool 4. Uncle Chuck was 13/1 in Pool 5 and 6/1 in Pool 6. Art Collector was 20/1 in Pool 5 and 8/1 in Pool 6. If I had to guess, people already have bets on the big horses at similar or higher odds than they were in Pool 6...and the horses that dropped in price (Uncle Chuck, Art Collector, NY Traffic, King Guillermo) are ones that people didn't bet in earlier pools but figured they'd take a shot at this time around. I wish there was another Oaks/Derby double pool. I probably would have thrown some money into that...but not particularly interested in the win pools at this point. |
#102
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There was a second Oaks/Derby double wager offered July 17-19, but for some reason the KD website isn’t showing the final odds for it like it does for the March 6-8 pool.
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#103
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Noda sends First Line back on 10 days rest to run in the Travers.
That race will be fun. Tiz the Law and Uncle Chuck, Max Player seems to get better with age, Caracaro should be better off the layoff, South Bend will like the added distance, and Country Grammer finally put it all together last time out. Great field, imo. And the way the points are looking, Uncle Chuck could make the derby with a 3rd or even 4th place finish. |
#104
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Chad Brown confirms Country Grammer officially off the Derby Trail-
https://twitter.com/KentuckyDerbyCJ/...049168384?s=20 Heard Baffert was quoted as saying after the Travers something to the effect of "looks like they won't be needing the auxiliary starting gate this year" He's probably right |
#105
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We've Gone Delirious |
#106
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I wasn't expecting that after the delay and all the added point-earning races, 15 points would be enough to make the starting gate.
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Curlin and Hard Spun finish 1,2 in the 2007 BC Classic, demonstrating how competing in all three Triple Crown races ruins a horse for the rest of the year...see avatar photo from REUTERS/Lucas Jackson |
#107
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Sorry if this doesn’t belong here, but I didn’t have a chance to reply before the Travers post was archived.
Rollo, thanks for responding. I do have to strongly disagree with your negativity about the AP Indy line ... But, Honor A.P. was the main topic, so...here goes. I’ll come out and say that I’m biased because I love his sire, I love anyone from Slew/Indy line..and I adore this colt. However, I can be objective, so... I agree with a lot of what you said, but not all of it. I think Mike didn’t want to lose position after being slammed at the start...so he rushed up a bit. Then, because I think his intention was always to be aggressive in a tiny field - stay close to the pace- he made that first move. My friend has a real issue with that and others have as well. For me, I still blame Shirreffs (who I’ve learned a great deal from watching HAP’s works and seeing interviews on TVG) more because of the training, but...I understand your point. What I don’t agree with is this notion that HAP has little to no speed. He closed from the clouds in his debut because he didn’t break great and Mike didn’t push, but he broke his maiden wire to wire. People forget that because it came between his flashy second under debut and his very good second in the San Felipe. He’s versatile - he can close from well out of it, stalk as in the SF or run from mid-pack as in the SA Derby. I’m not trying to convince anyone to think more highly of him than they do, but these are just the facts. I didn’t expect or want the colt to be cranked for the Shared Belief, but I expected him to be trained like he was for the San Felipe. He wasn’t. I was seriously concerned about what HAP got out of this race, but his fantastic work a couple of days ago made me feel a little better about. I’ve been waiting for him to go 1 1/14...beating Tiz will be tough, but I have faith. Good luck to your selections ! Sorry for being long-winded, lol. |
#108
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#109
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At any rate, the comparison was with Art Collector who is clearly more versatile than Honor A.P. having shown winning form at multiple levels, over multiple distances, with different running styles. Quote:
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A good candidate to be over-the-top come Derby day, a la Bolt d'Oro. |
#110
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From Jay Privman..
A few Derby updates today: @RSantana_Jr rides Max Player, per Asmussen @JulienLeparoux rides Storm the Court, per @EurtonRacing @DRFGrening reports @ABeschizza rides Enforceable, per @markecasse Also, Kiss Today Goodbye (10 pts) pointing to DMR Derby on turf, per Eric Kruljac
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All ambitions are lawful except those which climb upward on the miseries or credulities of mankind. ~ Joseph Conrad A long habit of not thinking a thing wrong, gives it a superficial appearance of being right. ~ Thomas Paine Don't let anyone tell you that your dreams can't come true. They are only afraid that theirs won't and yours will. ~ Robert Evans |
#111
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All ambitions are lawful except those which climb upward on the miseries or credulities of mankind. ~ Joseph Conrad A long habit of not thinking a thing wrong, gives it a superficial appearance of being right. ~ Thomas Paine Don't let anyone tell you that your dreams can't come true. They are only afraid that theirs won't and yours will. ~ Robert Evans |
#112
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CURRENT DERBY FIELD WITH CONFIRMED RIDERS (BOLD)
1 Tiz the Law (Barclay Tagg/Manny Franco) 372 2 Authentic (Bob Baffert/John Velazquez) 200 3 Art Collector (Tom Drury/Brian Hernandez) 150 4 Honor A.P. (John Shirreffs/Mike Smith) 140 5 Ny Traffic (Saffie Joseph Jr./Tyler Gaffalione) 110 6 King Guillermo (Juan Carlos Avila/Samy Camacho) 90 7 Thousand Words (Bob Baffert/Florent Geroux) 83 8 Dr Post (Todd Pletcher/TBA) 80 9 Max Player (Steve Asmussen/Ricardo Santana) 60 10 Caracaro (Gustavo Delgado/Javy Castellano) 60 -- Pneumatic (Steve Asmussen) 45 ~ Preakness 11 Enforceable (Mark Casse/Adam Beschizza) 43 -- Swiss Skydiver (Ken McPeek) 40 ~ Oaks 12 Rushie (Michael McCarthy/TBA) 40 ~ Pat Day Mile 13 Major Fed (Greg Foley/James Graham) 38 14 Storm the Court (Peter Eurton/Julien Leparoux) 36 15 Attachment Rate (Dale Romans/Joe Talamo) 35 ~ Not 100% 16 Sole Volante (Patrick Biancone/Luca Panici) 30 17 Finnick the Fierce (Rey Hernandez/Martin Garcia) 25 18 Winning Impression (Dallas Stewart/Joe Rocco) 20 19 Necker Island (Chris Hartman/Miguel Mena) 14 20 Shirl's Speight (Roger Attfield/Corey Lanerie) 0 ----------------------------------------- 21 Money Moves (Todd Pletcher) 0
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All ambitions are lawful except those which climb upward on the miseries or credulities of mankind. ~ Joseph Conrad A long habit of not thinking a thing wrong, gives it a superficial appearance of being right. ~ Thomas Paine Don't let anyone tell you that your dreams can't come true. They are only afraid that theirs won't and yours will. ~ Robert Evans Last edited by Kasept : 08-23-2020 at 01:54 PM. |
#113
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I love taking a shot but that would be silly. He’s a very good horse but that’s a tall order IMO
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#114
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Fair enough about the maiden...can’t argue there. About the SF and SD, my point was just that HAP could run closer to the pace or more mid-pack. I get your point about AC, though - I won’t argue. I am confident that HAP is better -but then I feel strongly about him, period. About fitness, while that’s true about the Shared Belief, overall HAP was kind of spotty in the race. I was encouraged that he closed well even when clearly not at his best. He had another fantastic work yesterday. Mike was interviewed afterwards in TVG and he said that the colt had been so lightly trained - they left room for him to get fitter, and he did get something out of the race. I think they’re using the works, and he seems to be thriving. I personally think HAP needed those works, and he enjoys them, but I suppose it’s always possible that you’re right. I hope not, lol. We’ll find out soon! |
#115
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What? I don’t see that....though, races never seem to play out like I think, lol |
#116
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KENTUCKY DERBY WEEK STAKES
$115,000 Champion’s Day Marathon Overnight Stakes (Entries taken Friday, race Tuesday, Sept.1) Probable: Eskenforit (trainer Steve Margolis) $150,000 Unbridled Sidney (Entries taken Saturday, race Wednesday, Sept. 2) Bye Bye J (Steve Asmussen); Change of Control (Michelle Lovell); Dixieincandyland (Eddie Kenneally); Stonewood (Carlo Vaccarezza); Tomlin (Mike Stidham); Violent Times (Ralph Nicks) THURBY $200,000 Pocahontas (GII) (Entries taken Sunday, race Thursday, Sept. 1) Alexandria (Tim Hamm); Crazy Beautiful (Kenny McPeek); Dream Quist(McPeek); Girl Daddy(Dale Romans); Trip to Seoul (James Chapman) Xtrema (Keith Desormeaux). $115,000 Opening Verse Overnight Stakes (Entries taken Sunday, race Thursday, Sept. 1) Crafty Daddy (Kenny McPeek); Cullum Road (Ignacio Correas IV); Hembree (Mike Maker); Mr. Misunderstood (Brad Cox). Possible: Set Piece(Brad Cox) OAKS DAY $300,000 Eight Belles presented by TwinSpires.com (GII) (Entries taken Monday, Race Friday, Sept. 4) Four Graces (Ian Wilkes); Mundaye Call (Brad Cox) Sconsin (Greg Foley). Possible: Ocean Breeze (Wayne Catalano). $300,000 Edgewood presented by Forcht Bank (GII) (Entries taken Monday, Race Friday, Sept. 4) – Beguiled (Phil D’Amato); Lucky Betty (Will VanMeter); Outburst (Eddie Kenneally) Sharing (Graham Motion). $250,000 Twin Spires Turf Sprint (GII) (Entries taken Monday, Race Friday, Sept. 4) Archidust (Steve Asmussen); Carotar i(Bryan Lynch); Chaps (Eddie Kenneally); Chief Cicatriz (Shawn Davis); Diamond Oops (Patrick Biancone); Extravagant Kid (Brendan Walsh); Tell Your Daddy (Neil Pessin); Tiger Blood (Mike Maker); Well Labeled (Larry Rivelli). $400,000 Alysheba (GII) (Entries taken Monday, Race Friday, Sept. 4) By My Standards (Bret Calhoun); Hence (Jack Sisterson); Owendale (Brad Cox); Silver Dust (Bret Calhoun). $1 million Old Forester Bourbon Turf Classic (GI) (Entries taken Tuesday, Sept. 1, Race Saturday, Sept. 5) Bowies Hero (Phil D’Amato); Digital Age (Chad Brown); Factor This (Brad Cox); Mr Dumas (Mike Maker); Parkland (Carlo Vaccarezza); Sacred Life (ChadBrown); Somelikeithotbrown (Maker); SpectacularGem(Jimmy Baker) $500,000 La Troienne (GI) (Entries taken Monday, Race Friday, Sept. 4) Lady Kate (Eddie Kenneally); Monomoy Girl (Brad Cox); Saracosa (Cipriano Contreras); She’s a Julie (Steve Asmussen). Possible: Vexatious (Jack Sisterson). DERBY DAY $500,000 Derby City Distaff (GI) (Entries taken Tuesday, Sept. 1, Race Saturday, Sept. 5) –Bell’s the One (Neil Pessin); Mia Mischief (Steve Asmussen); Sally’s Curlin (Dale Romans); Serengeti Empress (Tom Amoss); Wildwood’s Beauty (Scott Becker). $500,000 Longines Distaff Turf Mile (GII) (Entries taken Tuesday, Sept. 1,Race Saturday, Sept. 5) Beau Recall (Brad Cox); Belle Laura (Juan Avila); Daddy is a Legend (Rusty Arnold); Juliet Foxtrot (Brad Cox); Newspaperofrecord (Chad Brown). Possible: She’sonthewarpath (Steve Margolis). $500,000 American Turf (GII) (Entries taken Tuesday, Sept. 1, Race Saturday, Sept. 5) Fancy Liquor (Mike Maker); Field Pass (Maker); King Theo (Carlo Vaccarezza); Mr. Big News (Bret Calhoun); Sugoi (Mike Tomlinson); Vanzzy (Mike Pino). Possible: South Ben d(Bill Mott). $500,000 Pat Day Mile (GII) (Entries taken Tuesday, Sept. 1, Race Saturday, Sept. 5) Cezanne (Bob Baffert); Echo Town (Steve Asmussen); Liam’s Pride (Doug O’Neill); Shashashakemeup (Keith Desormeaux); Sonneman (Steve Asmussen). Possible: Attachment Rate (Dale Romans); Rushie (Michael McCarthy); South Bend (Bill Mott); Taishan (Richard Baltas) $200,000 Iroquois presented by Ford (GIII) (Entries taken Tuesday, Sept. 1, Race Saturday, Sept. 5) Belafonte (Tom Humphries); Drop Anchor (Kenny McPeek); Pico D’Oro (Bill Morey); Sittin On Go (Dale Romans); Super Stock (Steve Asmussen); Therideofalifetime (Ignacio Correas IV); Ultimate Badger (Romans)
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All ambitions are lawful except those which climb upward on the miseries or credulities of mankind. ~ Joseph Conrad A long habit of not thinking a thing wrong, gives it a superficial appearance of being right. ~ Thomas Paine Don't let anyone tell you that your dreams can't come true. They are only afraid that theirs won't and yours will. ~ Robert Evans Last edited by Kasept : 08-25-2020 at 11:36 AM. |
#117
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9/1-5 (CD): Derby Week Stakes Probables
KENTUCKY DERBY WEEK STAKES
$115,000 Champion’s Day Marathon Overnight Stakes (Entries taken Friday, race Tuesday, Sept.1) Probable: Eskenforit (trainer Steve Margolis) $150,000 Unbridled Sidney (Entries taken Saturday, race Wednesday, Sept. 2) Bye Bye J (Steve Asmussen); Change of Control (Michelle Lovell); Dixieincandyland (Eddie Kenneally); Stonewood (Carlo Vaccarezza); Tomlin (Mike Stidham); Violent Times (Ralph Nicks) THURBY $200,000 Pocahontas (GII) (Entries taken Sunday, race Thursday, Sept. 1) Alexandria (Tim Hamm); Crazy Beautiful (Kenny McPeek); Dream Quist(McPeek); Girl Daddy(Dale Romans); Trip to Seoul (James Chapman) Xtrema (Keith Desormeaux). $115,000 Opening Verse Overnight Stakes (Entries taken Sunday, race Thursday, Sept. 1) Crafty Daddy (Kenny McPeek); Cullum Road (Ignacio Correas IV); Hembree (Mike Maker); Mr. Misunderstood (Brad Cox). Possible: Set Piece(Brad Cox) OAKS DAY $300,000 Eight Belles presented by TwinSpires.com (GII) (Entries taken Monday, Race Friday, Sept. 4) Four Graces (Ian Wilkes); Mundaye Call (Brad Cox) Sconsin (Greg Foley). Possible: Ocean Breeze (Wayne Catalano). $300,000 Edgewood presented by Forcht Bank (GII) (Entries taken Monday, Race Friday, Sept. 4) – Beguiled (Phil D’Amato); Lucky Betty (Will VanMeter); Outburst (Eddie Kenneally) Sharing (Graham Motion). $250,000 Twin Spires Turf Sprint (GII) (Entries taken Monday, Race Friday, Sept. 4) Archidust (Steve Asmussen); Carotar i(Bryan Lynch); Chaps (Eddie Kenneally); Chief Cicatriz (Shawn Davis); Diamond Oops (Patrick Biancone); Extravagant Kid (Brendan Walsh); Tell Your Daddy (Neil Pessin); Tiger Blood (Mike Maker); Well Labeled (Larry Rivelli). $400,000 Alysheba (GII) (Entries taken Monday, Race Friday, Sept. 4) By My Standards (Bret Calhoun); Hence (Jack Sisterson); Owendale (Brad Cox); Silver Dust (Bret Calhoun). $1 million Old Forester Bourbon Turf Classic (GI) (Entries taken Tuesday, Sept. 1, Race Saturday, Sept. 5) Bowies Hero (Phil D’Amato); Digital Age (Chad Brown); Factor This (Brad Cox); Mr Dumas (Mike Maker); Parkland (Carlo Vaccarezza); Sacred Life (ChadBrown); Somelikeithotbrown (Maker); SpectacularGem(Jimmy Baker) $500,000 La Troienne (GI) (Entries taken Monday, Race Friday, Sept. 4) Lady Kate (Eddie Kenneally); Monomoy Girl (Brad Cox); Saracosa (Cipriano Contreras); She’s a Julie (Steve Asmussen). Possible: Vexatious (Jack Sisterson). DERBY DAY $500,000 Derby City Distaff (GI) (Entries taken Tuesday, Sept. 1, Race Saturday, Sept. 5) –Bell’s the One (Neil Pessin); Mia Mischief (Steve Asmussen); Sally’s Curlin (Dale Romans); Serengeti Empress (Tom Amoss); Wildwood’s Beauty (Scott Becker). $500,000 Longines Distaff Turf Mile (GII) (Entries taken Tuesday, Sept. 1,Race Saturday, Sept. 5) Beau Recall (Brad Cox); Belle Laura (Juan Avila); Daddy is a Legend (Rusty Arnold); Juliet Foxtrot (Brad Cox); Newspaperofrecord (Chad Brown). Possible: She’sonthewarpath (Steve Margolis). $500,000 American Turf (GII) (Entries taken Tuesday, Sept. 1, Race Saturday, Sept. 5) Fancy Liquor (Mike Maker); Field Pass (Maker); King Theo (Carlo Vaccarezza); Mr. Big News (Bret Calhoun); Sugoi (Mike Tomlinson); Vanzzy (Mike Pino). Possible: South Ben d(Bill Mott). $500,000 Pat Day Mile (GII) (Entries taken Tuesday, Sept. 1, Race Saturday, Sept. 5) Cezanne (Bob Baffert); Echo Town (Steve Asmussen); Liam’s Pride (Doug O’Neill); Shashashakemeup (Keith Desormeaux); Sonneman (Steve Asmussen). Possible: Attachment Rate (Dale Romans); Rushie (Michael McCarthy); South Bend (Bill Mott); Taishan (Richard Baltas) $200,000 Iroquois presented by Ford (GIII) (Entries taken Tuesday, Sept. 1, Race Saturday, Sept. 5) Belafonte (Tom Humphries); Drop Anchor (Kenny McPeek); Pico D’Oro (Bill Morey); Sittin On Go (Dale Romans); Super Stock (Steve Asmussen); Therideofalifetime (Ignacio Correas IV); Ultimate Badger (Romans)
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All ambitions are lawful except those which climb upward on the miseries or credulities of mankind. ~ Joseph Conrad A long habit of not thinking a thing wrong, gives it a superficial appearance of being right. ~ Thomas Paine Don't let anyone tell you that your dreams can't come true. They are only afraid that theirs won't and yours will. ~ Robert Evans |
#118
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REVISED OAKS FIELD
Swiss Skydiver (Kenny McPeek/Tyler Gaffalione) Speech (Michael McCarthy/Javier Castellano) Shedaresthedevil (Brad Cox/Florent Geroux) Project Whiskey (Butch Reid/Paco Lopez) Donna Veloce (Simon Callaghan/Ricardo Santana Jr.) Gamine (Bob Baffert/John Velazquez) Hopeful Growth (Anthony Margotta Jr./Manny Franco) Dream Marie (Matthew Williams/Joe Talamo) Bayerness (Cherie Devaux/TBA) Tempers Rising (Dallas Stewart/Julien Leparoux)
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All ambitions are lawful except those which climb upward on the miseries or credulities of mankind. ~ Joseph Conrad A long habit of not thinking a thing wrong, gives it a superficial appearance of being right. ~ Thomas Paine Don't let anyone tell you that your dreams can't come true. They are only afraid that theirs won't and yours will. ~ Robert Evans Last edited by Kasept : 08-30-2020 at 05:43 PM. |
#119
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Who will be fave ? Gamine or the Winner ?
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#120
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Redundancy
(And, yes, I know Redundancy isn't even entered.)
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Curlin and Hard Spun finish 1,2 in the 2007 BC Classic, demonstrating how competing in all three Triple Crown races ruins a horse for the rest of the year...see avatar photo from REUTERS/Lucas Jackson |