6/8 (BEL) 145th Belmont Stakes: Field at 14 as 'Tiz' passes

[dino]

With the Oaks being at 1 1/8 I was wondering about the inside posts. Obviously they aren't as bad as they Derby but maybe someone can give me some insight on the inside posts...thanks

[Calzone Lord]

Originally Posted by tywizard

Nevertheless, does this mean you're endorsing Pure Fun in the Oaks?

I loved her race over the track last year. She's always stunk on true synthetic surfaces and turf.

She got sick for a few days right after her comeback race ... and that is something that derails the form of a lot of young horses. Every week that I've heard about a horse who was sick after a race this year, they've completely bombed in their next race and their form didn't quickly recover. Purple Egg stopped on a dime in that Tampa Derby 1st off being reportedly sick. My Name is Micheal had good Canadian poly form for a weak trainer, ran fine at Tampa for Mott, got sick, and completely bombed in the Spiral.

My father said it often threw his cheap horses for negative form reversals, and when you're talking about younger horses who do more training in between starts, it's really not a good sign IMO.

McPeek said Pure Fun was breathing very hard after the Lexington.

I have to use Pure Fun because of the pace dynamics and because I believe this is the surface she wants ... but I wish she came up to this race better. Her entry looks like a case of Oaks fever. It would be easier for me to draw a line threw her two weak Poly races this year if I didn't read and hear that she cameback sick for a few days out of her comeback.

[blackthroatedwind]

Steve is a little busy, but he wanted to be sure to beat Alan to the punch with the big news about Giant Finish supplanting Fear the Kitten as the worst the horse in this year's Derby....though Charming Kitten may take offense to that assertion.

[Merlinsky]

Per Dave Grening's Twitter, Spiral 3rd place finisher Giant Finish by Frost Giant has 10 pts and is looking to go to the Derby which would bump Fear the Kitten.

[Calzone Lord]

In a perfect world ... Show Some Magic (20 points earned for his distant 2nd place finish in the Sunland Derby) will jump back into the picture. He finished 11th in the Illinois Derby at 15/1 odds last time out ... but still, this guy punched his ticket and has well more than enough points.

[Danzig]

Originally Posted by Calzone Lord

Orb is obviously going to be the post time favorite in the Kentucky Derby, and he just ran 11 lengths slower than Dreaming of Julia on the same day and same distance.

She's excluded from entering in favor of Fear The Kitten, now that Tiz A Minsiter is out after his 3rd place finish in the Cal Bred stake last weekend.

You know, because she didn't "earn" her way in like they did.

it's ridiculous.
they need to include points in some of the bigger filly races-if she got half credit for her wins she'd still be in, as she should be if they wanted to enter her.

[Danzig]

Originally Posted by jms62

Don't agree. Why should a race Restricted to Fillies have any bearing on entry into an Open race? If the Fillies want to compete then step up and enter the preps.

why should a top horse be barred from entry?

[GenuineRisk]

I agree with you, Doug, that the filly races should have some weight toward the Derby since 3-year-olds are so lightly raced nowadays that, as you said, no one knew Dreaming of Julia was that good until her last race, but the list you offer up of the fillies that ran in the Derby doesn't help the argument. Of the list, the only one who hit the board and would have been excluded under the current system is Eight Belles.

2010 Devil May Care- 10th
2008 Eight Belles- 2nd
1999 Excellent Meeting- 5th
1999 Three Ring- 19th
1995 Serena's Song- 16th (won Jim Beam against males)
1988 Winning Colors- 1st (won Santa Anita Derby)
1984 Life's Magic- 8th (ran 5th in Santa Anita Derby)
1984 Althea- 19th (won Arkansas Derby)
1982 Cupecoy's Joy- 10th
1980 Genuine Risk- 1st (third in Wood)
1959 Silver Spoon- 5th (won Santa Anita Derby)

So over half of them raced against the boys prior to the Derby anyway. The Preakness and Belmont aren't relevant as nothing has changed with them.

Again, I agree with you that the Oaks prep races should count, because I agree filly owners don't run fillies unless they feel they have a real chance and it's good for the sport's profile when fillies run in the Derby. I just don't think that the fillies' record in the Derby helps the argument as the two winners would have made it in under the current system anyway, and Eight Belles is perhaps not the ideal poster child for good fillies who would have been excluded( RIP).

[Scav]

Originally Posted by Calzone Lord

I loved her race over the track last year. She's always stunk on true synthetic surfaces and turf.

She got sick for a few days right after her comeback race ... and that is something that derails the form of a lot of young horses. Every week that I've heard about a horse who was sick after a race this year, they've completely bombed in their next race and their form didn't quickly recover. Purple Egg stopped on a dime in that Tampa Derby 1st off being reportedly sick. My Name is Micheal had good Canadian poly form for a weak trainer, ran fine at Tampa for Mott, got sick, and completely bombed in the Spiral.

My father said it often threw his cheap horses for negative form reversals, and when you're talking about younger horses who do more training in between starts, it's really not a good sign IMO.

McPeek said Pure Fun was breathing very hard after the Lexington.

I have to use Pure Fun because of the pace dynamics and because I believe this is the surface she wants ... but I wish she came up to this race better. Her entry looks like a case of Oaks fever. It would be easier for me to draw a line threw her two weak Poly races this year if I didn't read and hear that she cameback sick for a few days out of her comeback.

Do you really think Dreaming of Julia will be close to the pace? I think she will be about 5 lengths off of it 3 wide the whole way around

[Calzone Lord]

Originally Posted by Scav

Do you really think Dreaming of Julia will be close to the pace? I think she will be about 5 lengths off of it 3 wide the whole way around

The last time the pace complexion looked hot, they tried taking her back in the Breeders Cup Juvenile Fillies.

Sure, she was against the bias that day, but the hot pace never materialized.

I don't think they'll get cute again. She'll be placed wherever she is comfortable and if she's sharp like last time, it won't be 5 lengths off unless a breakaway speed duel happens up front.

[Danzig]

Originally Posted by GenuineRisk

I agree with you, Doug, that the filly races should have some weight toward the Derby since 3-year-olds are so lightly raced nowadays that, as you said, no one knew Dreaming of Julia was that good until her last race, but the list you offer up of the fillies that ran in the Derby doesn't help the argument. Of the list, the only one who hit the board and would have been excluded under the current system is Eight Belles.

2010 Devil May Care- 10th
2008 Eight Belles- 2nd
1999 Excellent Meeting- 5th
1999 Three Ring- 19th
1995 Serena's Song- 16th (won Jim Beam against males)
1988 Winning Colors- 1st (won Santa Anita Derby)
1984 Life's Magic- 8th (ran 5th in Santa Anita Derby)
1984 Althea- 19th (won Arkansas Derby)
1982 Cupecoy's Joy- 10th
1980 Genuine Risk- 1st (third in Wood)
1959 Silver Spoon- 5th (won Santa Anita Derby)

So over half of them raced against the boys prior to the Derby anyway. The Preakness and Belmont aren't relevant as nothing has changed with them.

Again, I agree with you that the Oaks prep races should count, because I agree filly owners don't run fillies unless they feel they have a real chance and it's good for the sport's profile when fillies run in the Derby. I just don't think that the fillies' record in the Derby helps the argument as the two winners would have made it in under the current system anyway, and Eight Belles is perhaps not the ideal poster child for good fillies who would have been excluded( RIP).

yeah, if the whole point of the system was to get the best in the race, they have to find a way to include the top fillies, if they wish to enter.
they have wildcard points, don't they? that should include some of the big filly races like the santa anita oaks for example.

[Calzone Lord]

Originally Posted by GenuineRisk

but the list you offer up of the fillies that ran in the Derby doesn't help the argument.

Yes it does. Horses are much less frequently raced than in the 1980's and before that:

Here are the 1981 Derby PP's: http://www.drf.com/row/pps/1981.pdf

The top fillies were far more likely to get tried in preps against males in the old days because horses raced a lot more frequently.

However ... the ENTIRE point of the list is that fillies were almost never entered against males when the system was based on Graded Earnings.

Since 1945, several thousand fillies could have entered and raced in the Kentucky Derby ... yet only 11 did.

So, why the need to make a point system designed to keep them out? Because Eight Belles broke down when she was pulling herself up on the gallop out after dusting 18 of the 19 males she faced?

[Kasept]

5/4: KENTUCKY DERBY

1. Orb (Shug McGaughey/Joel Rosario)
2. Verrazano (Todd Pletcher/John Velazquez)
3. Goldencents (Doug O’Neill/Kevin Krigger)
4. Java’s War (Ken McPeek/Julian Leparoux)
5. Overanalyze (Todd Pletcher/Rafael Bejarano)
6. Revolutionary (Todd Pletcher/Calvin Borel)
7. Lines of Battle (Aidan O’Brien/Ryan Moore)
8. Vyjack (Rudy Rodriguez/Garrett Gomez)
9. Will Take Charge (D. Wayne Lukas/Jon Court)
10. Itsmyluckyday (Eddie Plesa Jr./Elvis Trujillo)
11. Black Onyx (Kelly Breen/Joe Bravo)
12. Palace Malice (Todd Pletcher/Mike Smith)
13. Normandy Invasion (Chad Brown/Javier Castellano)
14. Frac Daddy (Ken McPeek/V. Lebron)
15. Mylute (Tom Amoss/Rosie Napravnik)
16. Oxbow (D. Wayne Lukas/Gary Stevens)
17. Falling Sky (John Terranova/Luis Saez)
18. Charming Kitten (Todd Pletcher/Edgar Prado)
19. Golden Soul (Dallas Stewart/Robby Albarado)
20. Giant Finish (Tony Dutrow/Jose Espinoza)
---------------------------------------------------------------
21. (AE) Fear the Kitten (Mike Maker/Alan Garcia)

[Calzone Lord]

Originally Posted by Danzig

yeah, if the whole point of the system was to get the best in the race, they have to find a way to include the top fillies, if they wish to enter.
they have wildcard points, don't they? that should include some of the big filly races like the santa anita oaks for example.

It's not rocket science ... just call the final major Oaks Preps (the Gazelle, Santa Anita Oaks, Fantasy, Gulfstream Oaks, and Ashland) "win and you're in" races

That way, the five most deserving fillies are allowed to enter the Derby if they want to.

Of course, 99 times out of 100, they won't. In most cases, the won't even be nominated and would have to pay outrageous fees to supplement.

[Calzone Lord]

Originally Posted by Kasept

5/4: KENTUCKY DERBY -- CURRENT FIELD -- TUESDAY (4/30)

1. Orb (Shug McGaughey/Joel Rosario)
2. Verrazano (Todd Pletcher/John Velazquez)
3. Goldencents (Doug O’Neill/Kevin Krigger)
4. Java’s War (Ken McPeek/Julian Leparoux)
5. Overanalyze (Todd Pletcher/Rafael Bejarano)
6. Revolutionary (Todd Pletcher/Calvin Borel)
7. Lines of Battle (Aidan O’Brien/Ryan Moore)
8. Vyjack (Rudy Rodriguez/Garrett Gomez)
9. Will Take Charge (D. Wayne Lukas/Jon Court)
10. Itsmyluckyday (Eddie Plesa Jr./Elvis Trujillo)
11. Black Onyx (Kelly Breen/Joe Bravo)
12. Palace Malice (Todd Pletcher/Mike Smith)
13. Normandy Invasion (Chad Brown/Javier Castellano)
14. Frac Daddy (Ken McPeek/V. Lebron)
15. Mylute (Tom Amoss/Rosie Napravnik)
16. Oxbow (D. Wayne Lukas/Gary Stevens)
17. Falling Sky (John Terranova/Luis Saez)
18. Charming Kitten (Todd Pletcher/Edgar Prado)
19. Golden Soul (Dallas Stewart/BJ Hernandez)
20. Giant Finish (Tony Dutrow/TBA)
---------------------------------------------------------------
21. Fear the Kitten (Mike Maker/Alan Garcia)
22. Carving (Baffert/TBA)

Carving was 6th beaten 12 lengths behind Hear the Ghost at 31/1 odds in the San Felipe last time out. Two starts back, he was 4th beaten 7 lengths at Golden Gate.

The horse hasn't raced in almost two months.

Only two more defections and he gets in with 2 points!

[RockHardTen1985]

Doug how do you feel about Unlimited Budget?

[Calzone Lord]

Originally Posted by RockHardTen1985

Doug how do you feel about Unlimited Budget?

She can beat me.

I wouldn't even consider using her in exotics unless you start a thread about how you intend to box the other 10 horses in the race.

[RockHardTen1985]

Originally Posted by Calzone Lord

She can beat me.

I wouldn't even consider using her in exotics unless you start a thread about how you intend to box the other 10 horses in the race.

So you like Mcpeeks horse and your against Julia? Anything else on this race?

[Danzig]

Originally Posted by Calzone Lord

It's not rocket science ... just call the final major Oaks Preps (the Gazelle, Santa Anita Oaks, Fantasy, Gulfstream Oaks, and Ashland) "win and you're in" races

That way, the five most deserving fillies are allowed to enter the Derby if they want to.

Of course, 99 times out of 100, they won't. In most cases, the won't even be nominated and would have to pay outrageous fees to supplement.

no, it's not. i like that cdi wanted to tilt the field more towards 3 yo over 2 yo wins, and for those who get better later in the spring-but if it excludes some of the very best 3 yo's because they're fillies, it's not a good system.
and yes, they very seldom would be entered-but why make it impossible? makes no sense, it's a throw the baby out with the bathwater move.

just read about giant finish and carve on bloodhorse. they need to institute a minimum # of points to get in the field.

[Calzone Lord]

Originally Posted by RockHardTen1985

So you like Mcpeeks horse and your against Julia? Anything else on this race?

Never said I'm against Dreaming of Julia. I said I wouldn't start her if I owned her or trained her. Given the competition and pace dynamics, the most logical thing to do is wait for the string of big summer races in New York and hit them all leading into the Breeders Cup.

Without cheating, I bet about 95% of racing fans couldn't name the 1st and 2nd place finisher of the last two Kentucky Oaks. It's not a race that is anymore prestigious than the next several she'd start in. Bigger crowd? Yes. More prestigious? No. Let all the other excellent fillies from a strong crop that all have the same running style rip each others heads off trying to win this race.

DoJ on top of Pure Fun, Seaneen Girl, and Princess of Sylmar and using all 4 in horizontal wagers.