#81
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So basically I haven't said that those who thought a rail bias exists are dumb -- I've just said that I don't believe it. I can't imagine a more fair way to look at it. I'm being diplomatic, and YOU are making it confrontational. That's your issue and not mine. You love QLM. Fine, I don't. But don't pretend that with easy splits, that QLM somehow deserved to run well enough for a check. If she ran well enough for a check, she would have....(SHOCKER) gotten a check! |
#82
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Spencer, I am not wasting anymore time on you.I have given you a list of people that can see what you can't.More important than the inside bias,was the struggle many consistent horses had on the middle,and outside of that track.Most never had a chance,and you will start to get that(maybe,but I doubt it) when most of them run just fine when they run their next race.
Last edited by SCUDSBROTHER : 11-22-2006 at 12:48 AM. |
#83
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I''ve given you examples, and a couple people who agree with me -- and yet you have still not answered ANY question I've posed. I can deal with that. We'll call it even out of the goodness of my heart. that's a deal. 10-4. You love QLM and will make an excuse for her no matter what. That's cool. I respect loving a horse unconditionally, even if irrationally. |
#84
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Oh, each and everyone of us is simply stunned that Lehr's point of view is that the track was just fine.That was incredibly surprising(I am sure.)His point is that nobody complained.If they would have complained,he would have called them poor losers.We are simply stunned by the cards he is playing. Do you really expect anybody to believe your load about starting this thread?No,you don't have an agenda, but you just happened to start a thread about a guy that does.You just thought it would be interesting huh? Yep.Sure.
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#85
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--Dunbar
__________________
Curlin and Hard Spun finish 1,2 in the 2007 BC Classic, demonstrating how competing in all three Triple Crown races ruins a horse for the rest of the year...see avatar photo from REUTERS/Lucas Jackson |
#86
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You fail to mention that Henny had only run once against older horses, broke poorly, shuffled back, was never perservered. He looked like LITF-lite to me (an overbet 3YO who had never faced a brutal field like this) coming in and proved that. I rewatched the race several times, and Thor's was much the best on that day. I lost a ****load of money on the race because i didn't think anything of Thor's but I'm not searching for excuses. My horse clipped heels and almost went down costing him ANY remote chance, that's bum luck, that's all. My longshot ran 2nd at 58-1. I got nuttin' and that's my fault, not the track "condition." |
#87
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I think that Thors benefited greatly by your horse clipping heals. That really allowed him to shoot up and totally take control of the race from the 3 path. But Thor was the best horse in that race on that day. I had him in the pick three only because I went 8 deep. The Sprint is always the hardest race--I always go back to Housebuster losing at like 3/5 when he stumbled at the start.
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#88
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Interesting information. I've said it once, I'm saying it again. If you don't believe me, that's your issue. There was no confrontation in this thread on my part until you brought it into the thread, my friend. I think that everyone (capable of reading) can see that, so there is not really even a question of whether they believe me or not...they can read it for themselves and see that you turned it into this. |
#89
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I took a look last night and Thor's Echo was coming off of a 6 point top, his mean is about a 2 and he ran a negative 4 in his last race, it's not like he's a developing 2yo or 3yo, it was a 6 point top coming 3/4 of the way through his 4yo year. Not every horse bounces, but that had some sort of regression written all over it or even back to his mean which would have made him a non factor in the Sprint. He ran a negative 5 in the Sprint and from the comments looks like he rode the rail and then swung out 3 wide and won, so I believe his number was aided by an golden rail. For those that believe there was no rail bias, I don't know what to say to you and I am not going to argues with you, because it looks like a hopeless cause. I guess we'll see what happens in the next couple of races.... |
#90
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#91
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That's a ton of development and with no signs of doing that before, it sets up for a bounce. I believe he bounced and still won, so he has every right to win the Defrancis, wouldn't surprise me, he's obviously a talented animal. I think it might prove my point even more.
One thing I read on here multiple times and whoever writes this nonsense is a complete moron in my opinion. There seems to be a group on here that says if you are questioning the track, you are just making excuses for being wrong. That's the stupidest line of bullcrap I have ever read anywhere. If you are interested in this sport and like to predict winners, you have to be able to look at things and question them and make your own assertions. I didn't think Thor's Echo would win on a fair track, because of his bounce, but he was definetely talented enough on a gold rail to win, that was my mistake for not recognizing that fact. If you are not learning from your mistakes you are going backwards and if you chalk it up to the fact that people are looking for something to blame their losses on, you have a losers mentality... |
#92
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#93
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#94
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It seems to me it is the usual misunderstanding/overreaction when it comes to track biases. I think we can all agree the rail was a very good place to be, probably the best part of the track, but enough horses that got decent trips were able to run at least OK, and not significantly worse than prior efforts, while not being on the best part of the track, that the track wasn't one of those super inside tracks.
Take a look at Aqueduct last weekend over the inner, or the main track at Aqueduct on November 11th, and I think one will get a much clearer picture of a super inside track where wide moves were virtually impossible. I just don't think we had one of those on BC Day and perhaps it would be wise to just downgrade some of the performances of horses who spent at least some of their race on the inside. Let's not pretend it was impossible to close outside, as that is simply not true, but certainly some were aided by inside trips. I also think the Thor's Echo race is not a great example, as no matter what the track, Thor's Echo got a perfect trip. He tucked inside behind a speed duel and angled on the turn to cruise by. He was best but his trip made it easier. It's hard to imagine a bias that would have stopped him. Also, remember it was the only one turn BC race of the day. While inside speed was good in the first sprint, with the best horse probably winning, good trip horses did well in the second race ( a one turn mile ) with only the second finisher spending part of the race on the rail. |
#95
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Nakatani said he wanted to stay on the rail as long as he could but once leaving the backstretch had no choice but to angle out and go after the leaders."On the turn I had so much horse that if I had stayed on the rail much longer................" I have written this so much,but you are simply not able to comprehend that he rode the rail until he got to the turn.It is a given.O.K.? He was not 3-5 wide almost the entire trip.I have put stuff on here that is obviously not being read.So,f it. Last edited by SCUDSBROTHER : 11-23-2006 at 04:48 AM. |
#96
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"Mel Stute thought his filly Quick Little Miss was compromised by a wide post in the Breeders' Cup Juvenile Fillies at Churchill Downs, and believed she would not mind being brought back just 15 days after that race. He was right. Quick Little Miss, last of seven at the top of the stretch, closed furiously to nail odds-on favorite Jump On In and capture the $100,000 Moccasin Stakes for 2-year-old fillies on Sunday at Hollywood Park..... "I wasted a little money going back East," said Stute, who trains Quick Little Miss for his wife, Annabelle, and the Schiffer family's The Hat Ranch. "I thought she was good enough for that race. I'm hoping the post position and the track beat her." So,myself and Mel are evidently the antichrist's little helpers,because we think the track hurt the chances of some horses that day.Fine.I love my company in crime.One more for ya: “She had no shot after breaking out there, the way that track played on Breeders’ Cup Day,” Chapman said. “It’s one of those things where you wish you hadn’t even run. She came out of it fine. There wasn’t much effort to it.”-James Chapman(trainer of Malibu Mint.) See,be careful because you aren't just making fun of me,you are making fun of the opinions of grade 1 winning trainers in this sport.I know what I am talking about.I know a totally unfair track when I see it,and these trainers are so sure it was messed up that they wish they didn't even run their horses on that track that day.He didn't say maybe it was the track.He said she had "no shot" from where she was on that track. Last edited by SCUDSBROTHER : 11-23-2006 at 03:04 PM. |
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