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  #1  
Old 08-21-2006, 08:23 AM
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SentToStud SentToStud is offline
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Default Lava Man... The Last Big California Horse

Enjoy him while you can. Notwithstanding whether or not he wins HOY, I figure this is the last horse of any consequence that California racing will produce.

Between a lack of horses overall, the inability to fill n1x races going 2-turns -- a basic staple of quality racing, a collective head-up-their a ss steward mindset, the soon-to-be demise of Hollywood Park and finally the move to running races on plastic in peraps the worlds most perfect climate all adds up to the end of Cali racing as we once knew it.

Within two years, California will be known as a nice place to develop young horses and that will be it. You are going to see (actually continue to see, as it is already happening) a mass exodus of quality 3 year olds early in their sophomore years as well as a continued thinning of the older divisions.

Enjoy Lava Man as he is the last California-based horse that will ever have a shot to be Horse of the Year.
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  #2  
Old 08-21-2006, 09:01 AM
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2Hot4TV 2Hot4TV is offline
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Quote:
Originally Posted by SentToStud
Enjoy him while you can. Notwithstanding whether or not he wins HOY, I figure this is the last horse of any consequence that California racing will produce.

Between a lack of horses overall, the inability to fill n1x races going 2-turns -- a basic staple of quality racing, a collective head-up-their a ss steward mindset, the soon-to-be demise of Hollywood Park and finally the move to running races on plastic in peraps the worlds most perfect climate all adds up to the end of Cali racing as we once knew it.

Within two years, California will be known as a nice place to develop young horses and that will be it. You are going to see (actually continue to see, as it is already happening) a mass exodus of quality 3 year olds early in their sophomore years as well as a continued thinning of the older divisions.

Enjoy Lava Man as he is the last California-based horse that will ever have a shot to be Horse of the Year.
California racing doesn't seem to have a bright future.
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  #3  
Old 08-22-2006, 09:52 AM
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Quote:
Originally Posted by 2Hot4TV

California racing doesn't seem to have a bright future.

Oh no!
Where else will TVG be able to do a remote from ? --->
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  #4  
Old 08-22-2006, 10:21 AM
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Quote:
Originally Posted by The_Guy_Smiley
Oh no!
Where else will TVG be able to do a remote from ? --->
Virtual Reality will take over. Just on big cartoon.
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  #5  
Old 08-22-2006, 10:29 AM
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Quote:
Originally Posted by 2Hot4TV
Virtual Reality will take over. Just on big cartoon.
Mark my words.

California racing will turn into a good place for turf horses and Cal-breds. Nothing else.

If they have the bad sense to run a Breeders Cup on that junk, it will be a joke. Every horse that's won a $50k stakes at Turfway will enter and probably run well.
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  #6  
Old 08-22-2006, 11:12 AM
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2Hot4TV 2Hot4TV is offline
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Quote:
Originally Posted by SentToStud
Mark my words.

California racing will turn into a good place for turf horses and Cal-breds. Nothing else.

If they have the bad sense to run a Breeders Cup on that junk, it will be a joke. Every horse that's won a $50k stakes at Turfway will enter and probably run well.
Most things in California just doesn't roll over and die even though I would like to see Rap music go on life support. Horse racing is still taking a big hit from Casino Gaming, which is growing as fast as LasVegas.
Turf racing? Maybe at Santa Anita and the winter meet at Hollywood only because of the other tracks having bad weather. The rest of the world wants that soft bog like turf that you just wont find in California.
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  #7  
Old 08-22-2006, 11:31 AM
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They have made a stupid decision and its one that will doom them. The money is in the back end in ths game. Noone is gonna shell out big bucks for a sire or mare who wins a grade one on that stuff.
They really blew it. All they hadda do was truck in a good soli/and mixture and maybe lay down a good cushion. Then not bow down to certain trainers who say that they want the track sped up and not so deep. This is common sense folks and I just don't buy that climate or anything else couldnt be overcome. That excuse just doesnt hold water.
Saratoga's surface is currently the best one in NY right now and geez, they only race here 6 weeks a YEAR!!! Every year they take up the track and pile it up in September and every July they lay it back down and work on it. If they can take a surface up here only used for 6 weeks a year and make it that good, you can't tell me that they couldnt just mix up a new natural surface out there and maintain it.
The decision to switch to that stuff will be the knockout punch on Cali racing. Its gonna be a turf and Cal Bred haven like the previous poster said.
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  #8  
Old 08-22-2006, 11:31 AM
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Quote:
Originally Posted by 2Hot4TV

I would like to see Rap music go on life support.

I second that emotion.
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  #9  
Old 08-22-2006, 12:57 PM
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King Glorious King Glorious is offline
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Finally, I'm glad to see some people that understand that California racing is in it's dying days. I've said on another forum that Polytrack will be the end of it as we know it. One of the unique things about California racing was that we have a style and pace that's distinctly California. Now all of the soft-hearted folks have taken over and their crying has got them to move to this Polytrack stuff. I understand that it's never a good thing to have horses breaking down and for the owners it's really got to be a blow. But that's part of the package that u know u are going to have to deal with when u set up shop here. If u don't like it, move your operations to Keeneland or Turfway. I believe that u have to train hard and race hard here in order to be successful and when u do that, there will be more injuries. Maybe since I'm not an owner or as emotionally invested in these animals as some others are, I don't share the same sentiments. I don't mean to hurt anyone's feelings but this is just how I feel. I feel that they are moving to homogenize the product here and I am not happy about it at all.

As for Lava Man, I really think he's a good horse. But I don't even know how good because the product here is so watered down, we can't see him face good competition. I mean, Ace Blue and Good Reward have been the runners-up in his last two. We got all excited about Perfect Drift coming out here but as much as I admire their sportsmanship in their scheduling and as much as I've come to appreciate that the horse gives his all everytime, the fact is still that he's won ONE grade one race in 40 starts and six seasons of racing. So beating him in a grade one race is really not that big a deal. Someone tried to tell me that I should have been excited over Lava Man's win in the Pacific Classic. Why? If he's anything at all, wasn't he supposed do to that? Would u get excited watching Roger Clemens strike out Class A level hitters game after game? If it wasn't for Lava Man, the state of the game in California right now would be embarrassing. Actually, even with him, it still is.
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  #10  
Old 08-22-2006, 01:14 PM
Rupert Pupkin Rupert Pupkin is offline
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I totally disagree with you guys. California racing will be fine. There are certainly some problems out here, but nothing that can't be dealt with. Polytrack will be an improvement over the crappy dirt track they have at Santa Anita.

With regard to Lava Man, the posts here are so comical it is unbelievable. He went head and head in :46 3/5 in the Pacific Classic and he still won easily. What do you guys want him to do? Do you want him to win by 20 lengths? If Sun King went head and head in :46 3/5 in a 1 1/4 mile race, I can guarantee you that he would not have been able to beat that field by 4 lengths the way Lava Man did.

Lava Man has run some incredible races out here the last 15 months. He beat Borrego by 8 lengths in the Hollywood Gold Cup last year. Two start later, Borrego went to New York and won the Jockey Club Gold cup by 7 lengths.

The California 3 year olds did fine this year when they went back East. Bob and John won the Wood Memorial. Sinister Minister won the Blue Grass.

The horses in California are just as competitive with east coast horses as they have ever been. The Tin Man just won the Arlington Million. Stevie Wonderboy won the BC Juvenille. Wild Fit ran 2nd in the BC Juvenille Filly.

We have some 2 year olds at here right now that can run with anyone. If they stay sound, they will be tough to beat in the BC Juvenille races this year.

Last edited by Rupert Pupkin : 08-22-2006 at 01:19 PM.
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  #11  
Old 08-22-2006, 01:30 PM
Rupert Pupkin Rupert Pupkin is offline
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By the way, does anyone know how business has been at Turfway since they put the polytrack in? I don't think that business has gone down at all. I think that business has actually gone up. That is really all that matters.

As long as business doesn't go down in California, then everything will be fine. As long as business is good then the purses will stay high and the quailty of racing will continue to be excellent.
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  #12  
Old 08-22-2006, 01:39 PM
oracle80
 
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Rupert Pupkin
I totally disagree with you guys. California racing will be fine. There are certainly some problems out here, but nothing that can't be dealt with. Polytrack will be an improvement over the crappy dirt track they have at Santa Anita.

With regard to Lava Man, the posts here are so comical it is unbelievable. He went head and head in :46 3/5 in the Pacific Classic and he still won easily. What do you guys want him to do? Do you want him to win by 20 lengths? If Sun King went head and head in :46 3/5 in a 1 1/4 mile race, I can guarantee you that he would not have been able to beat that field by 4 lengths the way Lava Man did.

Lava Man has run some incredible races out here the last 15 months. He beat Borrego by 8 lengths in the Hollywood Gold Cup last year. Two start later, Borrego went to New York and won the Jockey Club Gold cup by 7 lengths.

The California 3 year olds did fine this year when they went back East. Bob and John won the Wood Memorial. Sinister Minister won the Blue Grass.

The horses in California are just as competitive with east coast horses as they have ever been. The Tin Man just won the Arlington Million. Stevie Wonderboy won the BC Juvenille. Wild Fit ran 2nd in the BC Juvenille Filly.

We have some 2 year olds at here right now that can run with anyone. If they stay sound, they will be tough to beat in the BC Juvenille races this year.

Rupert they leaped before they looked out there. Some rinky dink venue switching to that stuff is a non event. People who bet those small tracks will still bet them. Lets face it, if you will bet 5 claimers, you will bet em if they run em uphill in the snow.
But if I were California I would have watched the upcoming Keeneland fall meet intently. I meet player and player after player(and these guys SEND it in) who keep telling me that they won't bet a quarter on the Keeneland poly races that are upcoming. I hear lots of opinions voiced here that say the same thing. They are gonna take a handle hit, and we both know it. Handle is what pays the bills. I'm also gonan be interested in just how many qulaity horses will actually wanna compete there on that stuff.
California should have waited for more data to come in on the stuff. And again, are you telling me that the trainers wouldn't have preferred(Vienna spoke out on this) them just installing new cushions and surfaces that were still dirt? This is throwing the baby out with the bathwater. You are gonna alienate gamblers who pay the bills, and trainers who now have to completely start over in how to train each day, and owners who will question how racing there translates to future success on dirt racing in the big races and also what kind of rewsidal value will be awarded to horses who win big races there. I mean, do you really think that major stud farms are gonna toss millions at horses whose only graded wins are on polytrack? I highly doubt it. They are gonna have to travel and win on dirt in order to solidify it and in that case, what is the ****ing point? I mean, its so hard to win a grade oe race, just one. Having to go out and win another in order to justify full market value at stud is a major penalty and risk that many will not take.

This whole thing is gonna get polarized at some point, poly vs traditional. My money is on traditional.
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  #13  
Old 08-22-2006, 01:43 PM
oracle80
 
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Rupert Pupkin
By the way, does anyone know how business has been at Turfway since they put the polytrack in? I don't think that business has gone down at all. I think that business has actually gone up. That is really all that matters.

As long as business doesn't go down in California, then everything will be fine. As long as business is good then the purses will stay high and the quailty of racing will continue to be excellent.
Richi you are comparing watermelons to grapes.
Turfway had fewer cancellations which bolstered it. Also Turfway has a steady diet of crippled out claimers who were able to start more times. They also don't run amny important stakes.
California is an entirely different animal. Cali doesnt live(or doesnt WANNA LIVE) on a diet of cheap claiming races. They also have some historic and important tri crown prep races and stakes races which owners use as a springboard to residual value. This is not good for the game out there.
What happens when the good 3 year olds say adios and hit the road to race on dirt to prep for the Derby? Also, how many cancellations a year do you get there? Usually none-one is that not correct? Trust me, gamblers are gonna be hesitant to play that stuff with any zeal. Business is gonna go down, but hey, those crippled claimers can make a few more starts and thats all that matters right?LOL! This is a case of the tail wagging the dog.
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  #14  
Old 08-22-2006, 01:47 PM
oracle80
 
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And you can put me down for a definite no way as far as playing poly races at Keeneland this fall. Under no conditions will I bet them, none. I will play the grass races only. And unless they make some all grass pik-3's or pik-4's, you can count me outta playing those bets as well. You know how many guys I have heard talking like this during the meet? Quite a few. I've also heard jocks agents talking about how few times they expect to have to go there. Everyone is planning on just being at Belmont the whole fall meet and they are pretty happy because it saves traveling and wear on them. Noone is expecting much from that meet, and with good reason.
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  #15  
Old 08-22-2006, 01:51 PM
Rupert Pupkin Rupert Pupkin is offline
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Quote:
Originally Posted by oracle80
Rupert they leaped before they looked out there. Some rinky dink venue switching to that stuff is a non event. People who bet those small tracks will still bet them. Lets face it, if you will bet 5 claimers, you will bet em if they run em uphill in the snow.
But if I were California I would have watched the upcoming Keeneland fall meet intently. I meet player and player after player(and these guys SEND it in) who keep telling me that they won't bet a quarter on the Keeneland poly races that are upcoming. I hear lots of opinions voiced here that say the same thing. They are gonna take a handle hit, and we both know it. Handle is what pays the bills. I'm also gonan be interested in just how many qulaity horses will actually wanna compete there on that stuff.
California should have waited for more data to come in on the stuff. And again, are you telling me that the trainers wouldn't have preferred(Vienna spoke out on this) them just installing new cushions and surfaces that were still dirt? This is throwing the baby out with the bathwater. You are gonna alienate gamblers who pay the bills, and trainers who now have to completely start over in how to train each day, and owners who will question how racing there translates to future success on dirt racing in the big races and also what kind of rewsidal value will be awarded to horses who win big races there. I mean, do you really think that major stud farms are gonna toss millions at horses whose only graded wins are on polytrack? I highly doubt it. They are gonna have to travel and win on dirt in order to solidify it and in that case, what is the ****ing point? I mean, its so hard to win a grade oe race, just one. Having to go out and win another in order to justify full market value at stud is a major penalty and risk that many will not take.

This whole thing is gonna get polarized at some point, poly vs traditional. My money is on traditional.
If they could have put in brand new dirt tracks that were good, then I agree with you that that is what they should have done. I'm not sure why they didn't do that. I don't know if they didn't think they could do it or what.

I still don't know if it's in stone that Santa Anita will put in a polytrack. Stronach may try to fight it. He may try to put in a surface similar to Gulfstream if the CHRB will allow it.

I don't know if you are right about horses not being that valuable if their only big wins are on polytrack. I would agree with you if there was only one polytrack, but if they have polytrack at many of the top tracks in the country including Hollywood Park, Keeneland, Del Mar, etc. then I don't see a problem.

If you are right that people won't bet their money on the new surfaces, then there will be a big problem. I don't think that will happen though. I think people will be willing to give it a chance. Who knows what this surface at Hollywood will be like. It's not the same as the track at Turfway. It's a different material.
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  #16  
Old 08-22-2006, 02:01 PM
oracle80
 
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If they could have put in brand new dirt tracks that were good, then I agree with you that that is what they should have done. I'm not sure why they didn't do that. I don't know if they didn't think they could do it or what.


Richi I will tell you why. Money!!!! I find it hard to believe that whoever decided this out there thought this through without bias or prejudice.
Where was the fact finding? Where was it ever considered by them to just install a new cushion and a deeper top layer? Did they even contact anyone about the costs and feasibility of doing this? All I see is a major marketing campaign full of propaganda that the Nazis would have been proud of. All i see is a group of people trying to make money who seize on every breakdown as a means to condemn racing as we know it and spout on about the safety of the animal. Where were these guys before this? How come they weren't appalled before this stuff and speaking about the cruelty then? Its because now they can turn a buck on the propaganda.
Vienna is no idiot, and he wondered about why they needed to switch to polytrack in print. How many guys are still wondering about this who havent spoke out?
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  #17  
Old 08-22-2006, 02:21 PM
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King Glorious King Glorious is offline
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The most interesting part about all of this is how they try to make it seem like the safety of the horses is the number one reason for going to Polytrack. Not true at all. Turfway did it because they needed a surface that could withstand the weather. They were losing too many dates to the snow and other conditions. The safety of the horses wasn't the reason. And then people are acting like it's the Polytrack alone that led to the increased handle and fewer breakdowns. It was the increased number of racing days because they didn't lose days to the weather. Same thing happened at Santa Anita this year. In 2005, they had a ton of rain and it forced cancellation of several programs. This year, with no cancellations, the handle was up. Duh. Also, Turfway has different medication rules now. That has also had an effect on the breakdowns. It's not just Polytrack. I don't think it's the savior to racing that a number of people think it is.
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  #18  
Old 08-25-2006, 08:39 AM
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whorstman whorstman is offline
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Dixie Porter
Seems to me like this guy (LM) is a real good one in today's game. Doubt he gets embarassed ANYWHERE.

As far as tracks go it's a crock. Just lay out the track, load em in the gate and I'll win anywhere. Horses can run in peanut butter. The only thing that counts is that they are all running in the same peanut butter in a given race.
But what if it's extra crunchy peanut butter? There would be a bias somewhere. . I agree with you. They're all running on the same surface. I will be watching Keenlands meet this fall just to see how they run.

Since I have really not seen much of this poly stuff, I would like to know how a horse will run going from poly to dirt. If the surface is softer, wouldn't it make the horse a little faster?

Wonder if DRF will add that to it's stats. (turf/dirt - poly/dirt) give percentages and stuff.
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