5/6: Churchill Downs (149th Kentucky Derby Day)

[Kasept]

CHURCHILL DOWNS ~ 149TH KENTUCKY DERBY DAY


POST-SCRATCHES


1st: OC/N1X, 3yo, 6.5f (P5, P3, DD, Hi-5)

Most Likely: #1 Extra Anejo 6-5 2nd
Next Best: #3 Federal Judge 2-1 WON ($5.48)
Best Value: #7 Backside Buzz 20-1 5th
Exotics Use: #8 Deer District 6-1 3rd


2nd: MSW, 3+, 8.5f (P4, P3, DD, Hi-5)

Most Likely: #8 Quality Chic 3-1 2nd
Next Best: #6 Quaternion 6-1 WON ($9.60)
Best Value: #7 Just a Photo 15-1 4th
Exotics Use: #3 Harbour Bridge 10-1 3rd


3rd: OC/N2X, 3+, 1m (P3, DD, Hi-5)

Most Likely: #1 Bright Future 5-2 3rd
Best Value: #12 Super Design 12-1 10th
Next Best: #5 King Ottoman 3-1 2nd
Exotics Use: #14 Petulante 6-1 WON ($9.34)


4th: Derby City Distaff (G1), F&M-4+, 7f (P5, P3, DD, Hi-5)

Most Likely: #2 Goodnight Olive 4-5 3rd
Best Value: #1 Hot and Sultry 6-1 4th
Next Best: #5 Matareya 7-2 WON ($12.12)
Exotics Use: #3 Wicked Halo 3-1 2nd


All Dirt STK P5 Grid:

4: 2 (A), - (B), 1-3-5 (C)
6: 2-7 (A), - (B), - (C)
8: 1-9-10 (A), 4-6-13 (B), - (C)
10: 4-7 (A), 6-10 (B), - (C)
12: 3-11-14 (A), - (B), - (C)

Simple (A+B): 1x2x6x4x3 = 144 x .50 = $72
All A's: 1x2x3x2x3 = 36 x .50 = $18
Backup: 3x2x3x2x3 = 108 x .50 = $54


5th: Distaff Turf Mile (G2), F&M-4+, 1m-T (P4, P3, DD, Hi-5)

Most Likely: #2 Speak of the Devil 7-2 3rd
Best Value: #7 Fluffy Socks 9-2 WON ($11.96)
Next Best: #5 Spendarella 7-5 2nd
Exotics Use: #3 Haughty 4-1 6th


P5 Grid:

1: 1-3 (A), - (B), - (C)
2: 6-8 (A), 3-7 (B), - (C)
3: 1-12 (A), 5-14 (B), - (C)
4: 2 (A), - (B), - (C)
5: 2-3-5-7 (A), - (B), - (C)

Simple (A+B): 2x4x4x1x4 = 128 x .50 = $64
All A's: 2x2x2x1x4 = 32 x .50 = $16


P4 Grid:

2: 6-8 (A), 3-7 (B), - (C)
3: 1-12 (A), 5-14 (B), - (C)
4: 2 (A), - (B), 1-3-5 (C)
5: 2-3-5-7 (A), - (B), - (C)

Simple (A+B): 4x4x1x4 = 64 x .50 = $32
All A's: 2x2x1x4 = 16 x .50 = $8
Backup: 2x2x3x4 = 48 x .50 = $24


6th: R-Knicks Go, 4+, 1m (P3, DD, Hi-5)

Most Likely: #2 Masqueparade 6-1 6th
Best Value: #7 Three Technique 20-1 3rd
Next Best: #6 Zozos 5-2 WON ($9.42)
Exotics Use: #3 Baby Yoda 3-1 4th


7th: Twin Spires Turf Sprint (G2), 3+, 5.5f-T (.20 Derby City P6, P3, DD, Hi-5)

Most Likely: #10 Arrest Me Red 4-1 5th
Best Value: #3 Evan Sing 12-1 8th
Next Best: #4 Big Invasion 7-2 7th
Exotics Use: #9 Oceanic 15-1 9th


8th: Pat Day Mile (G2), 3yo, 1m (P5, $3 3yo P3/8-9-12, P3, DD, Hi-5)

Most Likely: #1 Kangaroo Court 8-1 11th
Best Value: #10 Curly Jack 12-1 8th
Next Best: #9 General Jim 4-1 WON ($12.04)
Exotics Use: #13 Damon's Mound 20-1 9th
Super/Hi-5: #6 Frosted Departure 20-1 4th


P5 Grid:

4: 2 (A), - (B), - (C)
5: 2-7 (A), 3-5 (B), - (C)
6: 2-7 (A), 3-6 (B), - (C)
7: 3-4-10 (A), - (B), - (C)
8: 1-9-10 (A), - (B), - (C)

Simple (A+B): 1x4x4x3x3= 144 x .50 = $72
All A's: 1x2x2x3x3 = 36 x .50 = $18


P4 Grid:

5: 2-7 (A), 3-5 (B), - (C)
6: 2-7 (A), - (B), 3-6 (C)
7: 3-4-10 (A), - (B), - (C)
8: 1-9-10 (A), - (B), - (C)

Simple (A+B): 4x2x3x3= 72 x .50 = $36
All A's: 2x2x3x3 = 36 x .50 = $18
Backup: 2x2x3x3 = 36 x .50 = $18


9th: American Turf (G2), 3yo, 8.5f-T (P4, P3, DD, Hi-5)

Most Likely: #4 Talk of the Nation Gate SCR
Next Best: #11 Carl Spackler 3-1 8th
Best Value: #5 Johannes 15-1 5th
Exotics Use: #1 Major Dude 5-2 3rd
Super/Hi-5: #3 Mendelssohns March 12-1 9th


10th: Churchill Downs (G1), 4+, 7f (P5, P3, DD, Hi-5)

Most Likely: #7 Cody's Wish 4-5 WON ($3.44)
Best Value: #4 Hoist the Gold 30-1 2nd
Next Best: #10 Endorsed 5-1 8th
Exotics Use: #8 Fortin Hill 20-1 9th


11th: Old Forester Turf Classic (G1), 4+, 9f-T (P4, P3, DD, Hi-5)

Best Value: #3 Wolfie's Dynaghost 10-1 6th
Next Best: #9 Spooky Channel 5-1 3rd
Exotics Use: #8 Santin 9-2 5th
Super Add: #10 Bye Bye Melvin 6-1 8th


12th: 149th Kentucky Derby (G1), 3yo, 10f (P3, DD, Hi-5)

Most Likely: #3 Two Phil's 12-1 2nd
Best Value: 11 Disarm 30-1 4th
Next Best: #14 Angel of Empire 8-1 3rd
Exotics Use: #5 Tapit Trice 5-1 7th
Super Add: #17 Derma Sotogake 10-1 6th
Hi-5 Play: #13 Sun Thunder 50-1 11th

.50 REVERSE TRI KEY PLAY: 3-5-11-14-17-22 with 3-5-11-14-17-22 with 1-13-18-22-23 (6x5x5 = 150 x .50 = $75)


Oaks-Derby DBL Grid:

FR 11: 7-11-14 (A), - (B), 2-3-4-5 (C)
SA 12: 3-5-7-11-14-17-22 (A), - (B), - (C)

All A's: 3x7 = 21 x $4 = $84
Backup: 4x7 = $28 (2-3-4-5 in Oaks)


Oaks-Turf Classic-Derby P3 Grid:

FR 11: 7-11-14 (A), - (B), - (C)
SA 11: 3-7-9-10 (A), - (B), - (C)
SA 12: 3-5-7-11-14-17-22 (A), - (B), - (C)

All A's: 3x4x7 = $84


P5 Grid:

8: 1-9-10 (A), 4-6-13 (B), - (C)
9: 4-11 (A), - (B), - (C)
10: 7 (A), - (B), 4 (C)
11: 3-9 (A), 8-10 (B), - (C)
12: 3-11-14 (A), - (B), - (C)

Simple (A+B): 6x2x1x4x3 = 144 x .50 = $72
All A's: 3x2x1x2x3 = 36 x .50 = $18
Backup: 3x2x1x2x3 = 36 x .50 = $18 (4 in 10th)


P4 Grid:

9: 4-11 (A), - (B), - (C)
10: 7 (A), - (B), 4 (C)
11: 3-8-9 (A), 5-7-10 (B), - (C)
12: 3-5-11-14 (A), 2-17 (B), - (C)

Simple (A+B): 2x1x6x6 = 72 x .50 = $36
All A's: 2x1x3x4 = 24 x .50 = $12
Backup: 2x1x3x4 = 24 x .50 = $12 (4 in 10th)


13th: OC/N1X, 3yo, 8.5f (DD, Hi-5)

Best Value: #3 Bo Cruz 5-1 WON ($9.72)
Next Best: #2 Equivoque 3-1 2nd
Exotics Use: #8 Classic Legacy 5-1 3rd
Super Add: #10 Shopper's Revenge 4-1 6th


14th: MSW, 3+, 7f (Hi-5)

Most Likely: #2 Everso Mischievous 5-2 WON ($4.52)
Best Value: #6 Elrik Ridge 15-1 4th
Exotics Use: #10 Northern Invader 12-1 2nd
Super Add: #3 Last Dawn 20-1 11th


P5 Grid:

10: 7 (A), - (B), 4 (C)
11: 3-8-9 (A), 5-7-10 (B), - (C)
12: 3-5-11-14 (A), 2-17 (B), - (C)
13: 2-3 (A), - (B), - (C)
14: 2-6 (A), - (B), - (C)

Simple (A+B): 1x6x6x2x2 = 144 x .50 = $72
All A's: 1x3x4x2x2 = 48 x .50 = $24
Backup: 1x3x4x2x2 = 48 x .50 = $24 (4 in 10th)


P4 Grid:

11: 3-8-9 (A), 5-7-10 (B), - (C)
12: 3-11-14 (A), - (B), 2-5-17 (C)
13: 2-3 (A), - (B), - (C)
14: 2-6 (A), - (B), - (C)

Simple (A+B): 6x3x2x2 = 72 x .50 = $36
All A's: 3x3x2x2 = 36 x .50 = $18
Backup: 3x3x2x2 = 36 x .50 = $18 (2-5-17 in 10th)


Good luck!
Steve

[Kasept]

[Kasept]

Here are the early scratches for Kentucky Derby Day:

R2: 1, 11
R3: 8
R5: 6
R6: 4
R7: 13
R8: 4
R9: 12, 15
R10: 1, 2
R11: 2, 4
R12: 9, 10, 19, 20
R13: 1
R14: 9, 13, 15, 16

[Kasept]

DERBY DAY SCR/CHG'S

[casp0555]

How can one find out what the payout was for the Oaks/Old Forester/Derby pick 3 was? I have looked and searched and cant find it anywhere....I know there was over $660K in the pool so it could be a decent score....thanks in advance if you know.

[casp0555]

Originally Posted by casp0555

How can one find out what the payout was for the Oaks/Old Forester/Derby pick 3 was? I have looked and searched and cant find it anywhere....I know there was over $660K in the pool so it could be a decent score....thanks in advance if you know.

nevermind, it finally posted on Equibase