5/5: Churchill Downs (149th Oaks Day)

[Kasept]

CHURCHILL DOWNS ~ 149TH KENTUCKY OAKS DAY


POST-SCRATCHES


1st: MSW, F&M-3+, 8.5f (P5, P3, DD, Hi-5)

Best Value: #9 I Had That One Too 15-1 5th
Next Best: #6 Destine to Race 4-1 WON ($5.86)
Exotics Use: #8 Back to Gridlock 6-1 3rd
Super Add: #5 Beach Walkn 6-1 9th


2nd: OC/N1X, 3yo-F, 6.5f (P4, P3, DD, Hi-5)

Absolutely terrific filly ALW with 4 first out winners meeting up with cutbacks & class relief types from the Oaks chase. PADMA drops down, cuts back, goes turf to dirt (the triple whammy!) AND gets first Lasix..

Most Likely: #2 PADMA 9-2 4th
Next Best: #6 Grove 6-1 7th
Best Value: #7 Ervadean 30-1 8th
Exotics Use: #9 Undervalued Asset 7-2 2nd
Super/Hi-5: #11 Vahva 4-1 WON ($6.16)


3rd: OC/N2X, 3+, 1m-T (P5, P3, DD, Hi-5)

Best Value: #1 Smokin' T 6-1 WON ($6.76)
Next Best: #6 Point Me By 3-1 5th
Exotics Use: #12 Siege of Boston 4-1 6th
Super Add: #10 Whisper Not 7-2 3rd
Hi-5 Play: #9 Cowboy Justice 10-1 8th


4th: OC/N2X, F&M-3+, 1m (P4, P3, DD, Hi-5)

Best Value: #13 Into Disco 6-1 12th
Next Best: #4 Not So Close 7-2 10th
Exotics Use: #7 Heartyconstitution 4-1 WON ($8.30)
Super Add: #8 Music Street 8-1 7th
Hi-5 Play: #9 Jump Into the Fire 9-2 2nd


5th: Alysheba (G3), 4+, 8.5f (P3, DD, Hi-5)

Most Likely: #4 West Will Power 2-1 3rd
Best Value: #2 Last Samurai 4-1 4th
Exotics Use: #1 Art Collector 7-2 2nd
Super Add: #3 Rich Strike 7-2 5th


P5 Grid:

1: 6-8-9 (A), - (B), - (C)
2: 2 (A), - (B), 6-7-9-11 (C)
3: 1 (A), 6 (B), - (C)
4: 4-7-13 (A), 8-9 (B), - (C)
5: 4 (A), - (B), - (C)

Simple (A+B): 3x1x2x5x1 = $30
All A's: 3x1x1x3x1 = $9
Backup: 3x4x1x3x1 = 36 x .50 = $18 (6-7-9-11 in 2nd)


P4 Grid:

2: 2 (A), - (B), 6-7-9-11 (C)
3: 1 (A), 6 (B), - (C)
4: 4-7-13 (A), 8-9 (B), - (C)
5: 4 (A), 1-2 (B), - (C)

Simple (A+B): 1x2x5x3 = $30
All A's: 1x1x3x1 = $3
Backup: 4x1x3x1 = 12 x .50 = $6 (6-7-9-11 in 2nd)


6th: Modesty (G3), F&M-4+, 9f-T (.20 Derby City P6, P3, DD, Hi-5)

Most Likely: #7 Shantisara 2-1 4th
Best Value: #2 Didia 5-1 WON ($7.18)
Next Best: #6 McKulick 5-2 5th
Exotics Use: #8 New Year's Eve 5-1 3rd


7th: Eight Belles (G2), 3yo-F, 7f (P5, P3, DD, Hi-5)

Most Likely: #9 Munny's Gold 6-5 2nd
Best Value: #8 Accede 5-1 3rd
Next Best: #6 Red Carpet Ready 3-1 WON ($13.44)
Exotics Use: #3 Olivia Twist 12-1 5th


P5 Grid:

3: 1-6 (A), - (B), - (C)
4: 4-7-8-9-13 (A), - (B), - (C)
5: 1-2-4 (A), - (B), - (C)
6: 2-6-7 (A), - (B), - (C)
7: 9 (A), - (B), - (C)

All A's: 2x5x3x3x1 = 90 x .50 = $45


P5 Grid:

4: 4-7-8-9-13 (A), - (B), - (C)
5: 1-2-4 (A), - (B), - (C)
6: 2-6-7 (A), - (B), - (C)
7: 9 (A), - (B), - (C)

All A's: 5x3x3x1 = $45


8th: Unbridled Sidney, F&M-3+, 5.5f-T (P4, P3, DD, Hi-5)

Most Likely: #11 Caravel 4-5 WON ($3.48)
Next Best: #1 Bay Storm 6-1 2nd
Best Value: #5 Miner's Queen 20-1 8th
Exotics Use: #8 Oeuvre 5-1 5th


9th: La Troienne (G1), F&M-4+, 8.5f ($1 2-day G1 P6, P5, P3, DD, Hi-5)

Most Likely: #2 Search Results 4-1 3rd
Best Value: #10 A Mo Reay 5-1 4th
Next Best: #4 Secret Oath 3-1 2nd
Exotics Use: #7 Society 4-1 9th


$1 2-day G1 P6 Grid:

FR 9: 2-10 (A), - (B), - (C)
FR 11: 7-11-14 (A), - (B), - (C)
SA 4: 2 (A), - (B), - (C)
SA 10: 7-10 (A), - (B), - (C)
SA 11: 3-7-9-10 (A), - (B), - (C)
SA 12: 3-11-14 (A), - (B), - (C)

All A's: 2x3x1x2x4x3 = $144


10th: Edgewood, 3yo-F, 8.5f-T (P4, P3, DD, Hi-5)

Best Value: #2 Liguria 6-1 5th
Next Best: #9 Papillio 7-2 4th
Exotics Use: #5 Preliminary 5-1 11th
Super Add: #10 Flashy Gem 10-1 10th
Hi-5 Play: #7 Commanche Country 10-1 9th


11th: 149th Kentucky Oaks (G1), 3yo-F, 9f (Oaks/Turf Classic/Derby P3, Oaks-Derby DBL, P3, DD, Hi-5)

Most Likely: #14 Pretty Mischievous 10-1 WON ($22.74)
Best Value: #11 Defining Purpose 12-1 7th
Next Best: #7 Wet Paint 5-2 4th
Exotics Use: #4 Southlawn 8-1 10th
Super/Hi-5: #2 The Alys Look 15-1 3rd


Oaks-Derby DBL Grid:

FR 11: 7-11-14 (A), - (B), 2-3-4-5 (C)
SA 12: 3-5-7-11-14-17-22 (A), - (B), - (C)

All A's: 3x7 = 21 x $4 = $84
Backup: 4x7 = $28 (2-3-4-5 in Oaks)


Oaks-Turf Classic-Derby P3 Grid:

FR 11: 7-11-14 (A), - (B), - (C)
SA 11: 3-7-9-10 (A), - (B), - (C)
SA 12: 3-5-7-11-14-17-22 (A), - (B), - (C)

All A's: 3x4x7 = $84


P5 Grid:

7: 8-9 (A), - (B), - (C)
8: 11 (A), - (B), 1 (C)
9: 2-10 (A), 4-7 (B), - (C)
10: 2-5-9 (A), - (B), - (C)
11: 7-11-14 (A), - (B), - (C)

Simple (A+B): 2x1x4x3x3 = $72 ($36 for .50)
All A's: 2x1x2x3x3 = 36 x .50 = $18
Backup: 2x1x2x3x3 = 36 x .50 = $18 (1 in 8th)


P4 Grid:

8: 11 (A), 1 (B), - (C)
9: 2-10 (A), 4-7 (B), - (C)
10: 2-5-9 (A), - (B), - (C)
11: 7-11-14 (A), - (B), - (C)

Simple (A+B): 2x4x3x3 = 72 x .50 = $36
All A's: 1x2x3x3 = 18 x .50 = $9


12th: OC/N1X, 3yo-F, 8.5f (DD, Hi-5)

Most Likely: #1 Curl Girl 7-2 3rd
Next Best: #6 Guns n' Graces 3-1 6th
Best Value: #3 Boss Lady Bailey 8-1 8th
Exotics Use: #2 Tough Legacy 4-1 5th


13th: MSW, F&M-3+, 7f (Hi-5)

Best Value: #10 Huntress for Hire 8-1 WON ($23.12)
Next Best: #14 American Retro 4-1 2nd
Exotics Use: #11 Twin Mischief 5-1 5th
Super Add: #12 Pitch Clock 6-1 6th


P5 Grid:

9: 2-10 (A), - (B), 4-7 (C)
10: 2-5-9 (A), - (B), - (C)
11: 11-14 (A), 7 (B), - (C)
12: 1-6 (A), - (B), - (C)
13: 10-14 (A), 11-12 (B), - (C)

Simple (A+B): 2x3x3x2x4 = 144 x .50 = $72
All A's: 2x3x2x2x2 = 48 x .50 = $24
Backup: 2x3x2x2x2 = 48 x .50 = $24 (4-7 in 9th)


P4 Grid:

10: 2-5-9 (A), - (B), - (C)
11: 7-11-14 (A), - (B), - (C)
12: 1-6 (A), - (B), - (C)
13: 10-14 (A), 11-12 (B), - (C)

Simple (A+B): 3x3x2x4 = 72 x .50 = $36
All A's: 3x3x2x2 = 36 x .50 = $18


Good luck!
Steve

[Kasept]

From Kevin Kerstein
@HorseRacingKK

For those getting a start to Oaks Day handicapping - here are the early SCR'S. Note the rail on the turf will be in Lane 2, 12 ft. It will go to Lane 1 Saturday:

R1: 1, 7
R2: 1, 5
R3: 13-20
R4: 2, 5, 16, 17
R6: 3
R7: 7
R8: 10
R12: 7, 10
R13: 6, 9

[stevepopyak]

Nice call on the Oaks !!!

[Kasept]

[jwkniska]

Great job on the Oaks. I like and used it on top of everything too

[Kasept]

Originally Posted by stevepopyak

Nice call on the Oaks !!!

Originally Posted by jwkniska

Great job on the Oaks. I like and used it on top of everything too

Thanks guys.. Great end to the day with the Oaks winner, who as stressed on ATR the whole 2 weeks, looked easily the best of the fillies. Nightcap was a score too with the 2 fastest fillies running 1-2.

Hope everyone did well.. Let's get lucky today!