Derby Day Plays

[Dahoss]

Churchill

Race 3- #2 Coastal Defense
There was a time a few years ago that he’d be a prohibitive favorite in this spot. Tomorrow he will be double digits. He doesn’t make it to the races very often but he comes out of a super time live race and this is a much easier spot. He’s home, drawn well and Lanerie is the right kind of rider for him. I thin’ he will sit a good trip sitting 4th or 5th behind the speed and can hopefully hold off the closers.

Race 4- #3 Wicked Halo
I have no knocks on Goodnight Olive, how could you? But Wicked Halo is very good, was very game last time and should get first run on the favorite.

Race 5- #3 Haughty
Another race where I have no knocks on the favorite but there are some nice horses in here so why take such a short price? I think Haughty sits a nice trip right behind the speed and is a very nice horse in her own right. I’ve liked her since her debut so maybe this is more sentimental than anything but imth8nk she can win here.

Race 7- #4 Big Invasion
He had no business winning last time and still got it done. Should get plenty of pace to run at and even though Rosario has struggled this year, he’s still the best turf sprint rider in the country. Hopefully he can work out an inside out trip.

Race 9- #11 Carl Spackler
What a race! I’ve liked Carl Spackler since his narrow maiden loss to todays rival Far Bridge. He better be on his best to win here but should get first run and will be in a good,spot.

Race 11- #8 Santin
Not the best edition of this race. Santin is definitely a feast or famine type, but he’s run arguably his best two races at Churchill. He got the prep last time and should be much better here. Will have to hold off Up to the Mark.

Race 12- #3 Two Phil’s
I have him in two futures and am live to he and the 1,5,6,13,14 in the Oaks Derby Double. I just think he will be well spotted here just off the pace, reportedly working well and has handled the track. As I wrote in another thread, I’m going to try and get Sun Thunder in the exotics.

[moses]

Good luck Dahoss.

I also like Haughty. I like Promise Keeper as a live longshot today.

[jms62]

Derby

1-Hit Show
14-Angel Of Empire
3-Two Phils
4-Confidence Game
17-Derma Sotogake

Putting this Super in based on odds.... Longshots seem to sneak in so I included 4 longest.

5-14-17
5-12-13-14-16-17-23
5-14-17
5-12-13-14-16-17-23