FINALLY: a good match up-- the Virginia Derby

[hockey2315]

Actually no - I liked GP slightly more than Sailor's Cap but bet the 9. . .

[eajinabi]

Originally Posted by hockey2315

Actually no - I liked GP slightly more than Sailor's Cap but bet the 9. . .

What was the logic behind you liking the 9?

[Danzig]

Originally Posted by eajinabi

If a trainer doesnt bet on his horse is a sure sign the horse is not going to fire. He probaly ran him just for the excercise.

from the print edition of bloodhorse, july 5:

'dutrow was mildly confident in Frost Giant, but felt he had little or no chance of beating Rising Moon, whom the trainer wagered on.'

he also said he thought the horse was good, but that he couldn't explain some of the horses poor performances in the past. that he felt the horse was responding to his training, and that he might as well take a shot. that 'if he's ever going to do it, it's got to be today, because he's been going unbelievably lately.'

he also said about the race running that he had given up on both his horses, and then watched in disbelief as frost giant came back. 'i forgot all about him. i was looking at the other horse (rising moon).'

and he didn't have a wager on either of his runners in the race.

[eajinabi]

Originally Posted by Danzig

from the print edition of bloodhorse, july 5:

'dutrow was mildly confident in Frost Giant, but felt he had little or no chance of beating Rising Moon, whom the trainer wagered on.'

he also said he thought the horse was good, but that he couldn't explain some of the horses poor performances in the past. that he felt the horse was responding to his training, and that he might as well take a shot. that 'if he's ever going to do it, it's got to be today, because he's been going unbelievably lately.'

he also said about the race running that he had given up on both his horses, and then watched in disbelief as frost giant came back. 'i forgot all about him. i was looking at the other horse (rising moon).'

and he didn't have a wager on either of his runners in the race.

I did bet on him.

[Danzig]

Originally Posted by eajinabi

I did.

congrats.

[hockey2315]

Originally Posted by eajinabi

What was the logic behind you liking the 9?

It was sort of an action bet - but I thought he'd appreciate the stretch-out and figured that if the big two didn't fire (each of them had a knock - GP-the distance, SC-the firm ground) he was pretty much just as likely as anyone to win it by default. . . Win @ CNL and 3rd off the lay-off didn't hurt either. . . didn't love him and barely played him really. Worth a few bucks at 30-1, though.

[-BT-]

""I cussed him," Gomez said after the winner's circle ceremony. "I was like, 'What are you doing?' He tried to push his way out and find the lane, and he wasn't going to push his way past me and my horse. He was acting like I had no horse. I was like, 'Where are you going?' "


"I thought I had enough to extricate myself," said a bitter Desormeaux after the race, his face soaked in sweat. "I might have gotten manhandled by that horse. After that, [Court Vision] took aim at the leader. I think I actually got my nose in front 50 yards from the finish."

Asked if that were true, Gomez y said, "No." "

http://www.washingtonpost.com/wp-dyn...071901611.html


-bt-

[dalakhani]

Originally Posted by hockey2315

There are some real gems in here. . .

I read what was bolded here and i dont see where eajinabi is off.

He says that Court Vision had back class. Check. He, along with Sailors cap and Gio Ponte, were the only graded stake winners in the field. Looks like back class to me.

He says that Court Vision MIGHT have won it with a better trip. He got trapped behind horses on the turn and lost in a photo. Yeah, I say he is right there as well although i think Gio outgamed him.

He was second off the layoff and first time trying firm turf.

I dont think the connections thing is a bad thought either. **** the IEAH thing...its not like we are talking about the Aga Khan or Godolphin here. But we are talking about Mott. Mott isnt one to keep knocking his head against the wall placing horses where they dont belong. He brings his first call rider (desormeaux) in to boot. Obviously Mott sees talent here or else he wouldnt keep placing him in these races and the 10-1 morning line was too good to be true come post time.

Betting connections blindly is a fools road to poverty but i dont think eajinabi ever said that. He just said that that was a part of his thinking...and obviously he was correct.

[blackthroatedwind]

Court Vision might have won with a better trip?

He is 5000-1 to ever get a better trip in his lifetime.

[dalakhani]

Originally Posted by blackthroatedwind

Court Vision might have won with a better trip?

He is 5000-1 to ever get a better trip in his lifetime.

You just made me rewatch the race...and you are right for the most part. Watching it live, it looked like he got into more trouble around the turn but on replay the hole to the inside opens up and he didnt have to wait at all and he ended up saving ground.



http://youtube.com/watch?v=7_HVhWVg-qE

[the_fat_man]

Originally Posted by blackthroatedwind

Court Vision might have won with a better trip?

He is 5000-1 to ever get a better trip in his lifetime.

But the real issue in the game is not that the OBVIOUS escapes MOST but rather that the takeout is much too high.

[eajinabi]

Originally Posted by dalakhani

I read what was bolded here and i dont see where eajinabi is off.

He says that Court Vision had back class. Check. He, along with Sailors cap and Gio Ponte, were the only graded stake winners in the field. Looks like back class to me.

He says that Court Vision MIGHT have won it with a better trip. He got trapped behind horses on the turn and lost in a photo. Yeah, I say he is right there as well although i think Gio outgamed him.

He was second off the layoff and first time trying firm turf.

I dont think the connections thing is a bad thought either. **** the IEAH thing...its not like we are talking about the Aga Khan or Godolphin here. But we are talking about Mott. Mott isnt one to keep knocking his head against the wall placing horses where they dont belong. He brings his first call rider (desormeaux) in to boot. Obviously Mott sees talent here or else he wouldnt keep placing him in these races and the 10-1 morning line was too good to be true come post time.

Betting connections blindly is a fools road to poverty but i dont think eajinabi ever said that. He just said that that was a part of his thinking...and obviously he was correct.

Thank You!

[eajinabi]

I credit GP's win on Gomez. Magnificent race riding on his part. Still Courts Vision was very game in defeat.

[dalakhani]

Originally Posted by eajinabi

I credit GP's win on Gomez. Magnificent race riding on his part. Still Courts Vision was very game in defeat.

I disagree here. Yes, i think Gomez rode a nice race but at the end of the day CV had every chance to win and simply couldnt get past the winner. Game effort by Court Vision indeed but in watching the race yesterday and again this morning, Gio Ponte was simply the better horse.

On another note, Sailors cap didnt come to play yesterday. Was it the firm turf or bounce? I guess time will tell.

[dalakhani]

Originally Posted by hockey2315

Personally I think that race will come back poorly. . . Gio Ponti didn't look that great and probably just won because he was the most talented - he's got more kick at a mile and 10F is stretching his pedigree - he should be shortened back up. Sailor's Cap is an OK horse but he's shown a definite affinity for soft turf.

If any of these horses run back in the Secretariat they'll get drowned by Tizdejavu and any Euros that come over.

Yes, those alydar mares have proven to have no influence on stamina.

[ateamstupid]

Originally Posted by dalakhani

I dont think the connections thing is a bad thought either. **** the IEAH thing...its not like we are talking about the Aga Khan or Godolphin here. But we are talking about Mott. Mott isnt one to keep knocking his head against the wall placing horses where they dont belong. He brings his first call rider (desormeaux) in to boot. Obviously Mott sees talent here or else he wouldnt keep placing him in these races and the 10-1 morning line was too good to be true come post time.

Betting connections blindly is a fools road to poverty but i dont think eajinabi ever said that. He just said that that was a part of his thinking...and obviously he was correct.

Spare me. You're making dude's argument sound way too nuanced and specific. It wasn't about Mott and how he wouldn't "keep banging his head into a wall".. The 'argument' boiled down to "Big name connections = Good." That's all there was to it, and I know this because I asked dude to back up his argument in this particular situation, and he couldn't.

Besides, I don't think you realize how many people have an investment in Court Vision. If you think that Mott is in the position to just drop him into a listed stake if he feels like it, you're very mistaken.

[hockey2315]

Originally Posted by dalakhani

Yes, those alydar mares have proven to have no influence on stamina.

What an idiotic and worthless comment. . . Last I checked horses have a mommy and a daddy and Gio Ponti's daddy is Tale of the Cat. 256 tomlinson - whoa that's stamina. Obviously horses can outrun their pedigree and pedigrees are up for debate, but you misunderstood (again) what I meant.

[eajinabi]

Originally Posted by ateamstupid

Spare me. You're making dude's argument sound way too nuanced and specific. It wasn't about Mott and how he wouldn't "keep banging his head into a wall".. The 'argument' boiled down to "Big name connections = Good." That's all there was to it, and I know this because I asked dude to back up his argument in this particular situation, and he couldn't.

Besides, I don't think you realize how many people have an investment in Court Vision. If you think that Mott is in the position to just drop him into a listed stake if he feels like it, you're very mistaken.

I gave you my reasons why I liked him. Having the names on his back was the just the icing. You said he was S L O W and he proved you wrong yesterday.

[hockey2315]

Originally Posted by eajinabi

I gave you my reasons why I liked him. Having the names on his back was the just the icing. You said he was S L O W and he proved you wrong yesterday.

I'm not so sure about that. . .

[dalakhani]

Originally Posted by hockey2315

What an idiotic and worthless comment. . . Last I checked horses have a mommy and a daddy and Gio Ponti's daddy is Tale of the Cat. 256 tomlinson - whoa that's stamina. Obviously horses can outrun their pedigree and pedigrees are up for debate, but you misunderstood (again) what I meant.

Your quote was "10f is stretching his pedigree" and this is entirely incorrect. I realize that Tale of the Cat is his sire but you failed to looked into the dam which is loaded with stamina influences.

Bred by Kilboy Estate in Kentucky, Gio Ponti is out of the stakes-placed Chipeta Springs (Alydar) and is a half-brother to Fisher Pond (A.P. Indy), winner of the 2002 Lawrence Realization H. Chipeta Springs has also produced a juvenile filly named Bon Jovi Girl, who was runner-up in her debut at Delaware Park on July 12, and a yearling colt, both by Malibu Moon. Gio Ponti's second dam is Argentinean Group 1 queen Salt Spring (Arg) (Salt Marsh). This is the family of Grade 1 victor Mongoose (Broad Brush), Grade 3 scorers Hesanoldsalt (Broad Brush) and Puxa Saco (Dehere), and further back, two-time Horse of the Year Cigar (Palace Music).


I reprinted this brisnet. Remember, stamina can come from both sides of the pedigree and obviously his Dam had something to do with his ability to get 10f. So...just admit when you are wrong because it makes you look even more foolish.