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Old 09-26-2020, 05:32 AM
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Kasept Kasept is online now
Steve Byk
 
Join Date: May 2006
Location: Greenwich, NY
Posts: 42,546
Default 9/26: Belmont (5th-10th; X-C P5)

BELMONT PARK ~ CROSS COUNTRY P5


POST-SCRATCHES


5th: NY-MSW, 2yo, 1m-T (Empire 6, P3, DD)

Not a ton to go on, but surprised to find that Motion (#1 Chulainn) just 1 for 19 adding blinkers in 2nd career starts..

Most Likely: #10 Pivotal Run 4-1 7th
Next Best: #9 I'm Blaming You 6-1 6th
Best Value: #7 Wicked Easy 8-1 5th
Exotics Use: #3 Masked Marauder 9-2 2nd


6th: MCLM/$40k, 3+, 8.5f-Inner (P5, G/S, P3, DD)

Really well-matched group with several class droppers. #2 Valletta has had her chances, but Gargan an eye-popping 12 for 24 ($3.71!) off the claim and she's competitive coming in already..

Best Value: #2 Valletta 9-2 2nd
Next Best: #9 Hot Button 7-2 9th
Exotics Use: #6 Hard Won 10-1 3rd
Super Add: #4 Wicked Happy 8-1 4th


BELMONT 7th: OC/N2X, 3+, 6f (P4, P3, DD)

Yikes. Brutally tough way to start the Cross Country with field that accounts for 65 wins and nearly $4,000,000 in earnings..

Best Value: #6 Tribeca 6-1 2nd
Next Best: #5 Hidden Scroll Late SCR
Exotics Use: #7 Mount Travers 4-1 7th
Super Add: #9 Pete's Play Call 5-1 4th


CHURCHILL 8th: OC/N3X, F&M-3+, 1m (P3, DD)

Most Likely: #6 New Roo 7-2 5th
Best Value: #2 Sanenus 10-1 3rd
Next Best: #1 (POE) Gold Standard 3-1 4th/7th
Exotics Use: #7 Chocolate Kisses 5-1 2nd


BELMONT 8th: Noble Damsel (G3), F&M-3+, 1m-T (P3, DD)

Nice group. Can Blowout wire is the question..

Most Likely: #2 Sweet Bye and Bye 7-2 3rd
Next Best: #4 Blowout 3-1 2nd
Exotics Use: #9 Feel Glorious 4-1 7th
Super Add: #1 Viadera 9-2 WON ($13.00)


CHURCHILL 9th: Ack Ack (G3), 1m (DD)

9-5 Warrior's Charge will be under pressure early and often. Margolis' Streaking Ebben (5-1) should get an ideal stalk and go trip behind the speed..

Best Value: #8 Ebben 5-1 5th
Next Best: #1 Warrior's Charge 9-5 8th
Exotics Use: #13 Everfast 10-1 9th
Super Add: #2 Bourbon Calling 12-1 2nd


BELMONT 9th: Vosburgh (G2), 3+, 6f (DD)

With Volatile out of the picture, any of these 5 can win..

Best Value: #1 True Timber 9-2 4th
Next Best: #5 Firenze Fire 7-2 WON ($7.20)
Exotics Use: #4 Share the Ride 6-1 3rd


X-C P5 GRID:

BEL 7: 5-6-7 (A), 8-9 (B), 1-2-10 (C)
CD 8: 6 (A), - (B), 1-2 (C)
BEL 8: 2-4 (A), 1-9 (B), - (C)
CD 9: 1-8-13 (A), - (B), - (C)
BEL 9: 1-5 (A), - (B), 2-4-6 (C)

Simple (A+B): 5x1x4x3x2 = 120 x .50 = $60
All A's: 3x1x2x3x2 = 36 x .50 = $18


10th: CLM/N2L, 3+, 8.5f-T

Full, interesting field led by NYB Barleewon who ran pair of nice ones here in June and dips down to N2L company with Johnny back aboard. After that, it's a grab bag..

Most Likely: #11 Barleewon 7-2 3rd
Next Best: #2 Albie 9-2 WON ($6.90)
Best Value: #5 My Amanjena 30-1 10th
Exotics Use: #3 Shootin the Breeze 4-1 7th


P5 Grid:

6: 2-9 (A), - (B), 4-6-7 (C)
7: 5-6-7 (A), 8-9 (B), - (C)
8: 2-4 (A), 1-9 (B), - (C)
9: 1-5 (A), - (B), 2-4-6 (C)
10: 2-11 (A), - (B), 3-5 (C)

Simple (A+B): 2x5x4x2x2 = 160 x .50 = $80
All A's: 2x3x2x2x2 = 48 x .50 = $24


P4 Grid:

7: 5-6-7 (A), 8-9 (B), - (C)
8: 2-4 (A), 1-9 (B), - (C)
9: 1-4-5 (A), - (B), 2-6 (C)
10: 2-11 (A), - (B), 3-5 (C)

Simple (A+B): 5x4x3x2 = 120 x .50 = $60
All A's: 3x2x3x2 = 36 x .50 = $18


Good luck!
Steve
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A long habit of not thinking a thing wrong, gives it a superficial appearance of being right. ~ Thomas Paine
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Last edited by Kasept : 09-27-2020 at 12:58 PM.
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Old 09-26-2020, 11:43 AM
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Steve Byk
 
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BEL SCR/CHG'S
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All ambitions are lawful except those which climb upward on the miseries or credulities of mankind. ~ Joseph Conrad
A long habit of not thinking a thing wrong, gives it a superficial appearance of being right. ~ Thomas Paine
Don't let anyone tell you that your dreams can't come true. They are only afraid that theirs won't and yours will. ~ Robert Evans
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