Thursday, 7/9: Nick Tammaro's Belmont Analysis presented by RTN

[Kasept]

BELMONT – 7/9/2020

Race 1- 1 st #2 ALDA 2 ND #7 STEAL MY SUNSHINE 3 RD #6 FRANKEL AT ASCOT

#2 ALDA made a big late run in garbage time of her debut and now gets additional ground with which to work
at second asking. Having that race behind her could lead to her having more speed, and that will help. #7
STEAL MY SUNSHINE is a daughter of 16% debut sire Distorted Humor and is out of a dam who dropped two
turf winners including the graded stakes caliber Conquest Panthera. The outside post is ideal for a filly who
should have ample early zip. #6 FRANKEL AT ASCOT is by Frankel, whose progeny are 2-19 on debut in
North America. This filly’s dam was all turf and she has already dropped one winner. That’s enough pedigree
power to give her an extra look.

Race 2- 1 st #7 SWIPING DAN 2 ND #8 JAVELIN 3 RD #3 STONEY BENNETT

#7 SWIPING DAN gets a look as a longshot given the improvement he showed last time out when badly pace
compromised. He gets a massive upgrade at pilot in a race where the favorites inspire no confidence. Why
not take a shot on a 15-1 price play? #8 JAVELIN is going to be horribly over bet based on a dull effort most
recently where he trailed the wire-to-wire winner home. He retains the meet’s top pilot and that’ll destroy any
value at the windows. #3 STONEY BENNETT is taking an ugly looking class drop to the basement for trainer
Linda Rice This son of Bustin Stones is quick enough to get command from the start and may not stop, but
there are too many red flags to have any confidence.

Race 3- 1 st #4 EBONY 2 ND #2 WHATDOESASHARKSAY 3 RD #6 SETTING THE MOOD

It’s not so much that her overseas form makes her a standout, but #4 EBONY is facing a horrific bunch int his
N1X event. She needn’t be much to dominate here and her trainer does well with these types. Graham
Motion is 23% with turf routers off 180+ day breaks and making their North American debuts ($2.89 ROI). Her
best effort will make her impossible to beat. #2 WHATDOESASHARKSAY was on the lead last time out and
weakened late. That was a much tougher field than what she faces today, and a more patient ride from
Kendrick Carmouche will make a difference. #6 SETTING THE MOOD goes 3 rd off a short layoff after coming
up empty late against similar foes here last month. She gets a rider change to John Velazquez, who can put
her a bit closer to the pace in this heat which is devoid of early zip.

Race 4- 1 st #5 ALLURE FORTUNE 2 ND #7 BELLEZA 3 RD #6 MADAM DEPUTY

#5 ALLURE FORTUNE is taking the biggest class drop in racing off a dull effort here almost a month ago.
She showed a ton of early zip on debut and can be in a pace stalking position today with #4 LOVE ME
TOMORROW likely to make the lead. Jeremiah Englehart is 28% with maiden droppers in dirt sprints at NYRA
tracks ($2.75 ROI). #7 BELLEZA is another dropping in for a tag and trainer Linda Rice does well with these
types. This filly cuts back in distance after making up some ground late last time out and will be in line to
benefit if the early pace heats up. Rice is 38% with maiden dirt sprinters off 180+ day breaks ($2.59 ROI). #6
MADAM DEPUTY is a firster by Constitution, whose progeny win on debut at a colossal 24% clip. The dam
here has dropped 6 winners, including the useful NY bred Ethan Hunt.

Race 5- 1 ST #5 ANOTHER 2 ND #4 CHANNEL ISLAND 3 RD #9 C C RIDER

#5 ANOTHER has had two horrific trips in a row. He was steadied early two back before pulling badly then
getting caught in traffic in upper stretch. Things didn’t go much better last time out at Gulfstream, as he was in
horrible traffic through the stretch and was never given an opportunity to run. Trainer Mertkan Kantarmaci is
quietly having a good meet and this son of Soldat gets a heady pilot who’ll keep him within range early. #4
CHANNEL ISLAND will be hurt most by the expected slow pace in here given he is a deep closer. It’s
undeniable that he is facing weaker foes than he did last time out and trainer Mike Maker is 24% with turf
routers going 2 nd off of 180+ day breaks ($2.31 ROI). #9 C C RIDER is the likely pacesetter in here and that
makes him a contender given the expected race flow. He has also faced much better competition regularly on
the turf, so the class relief is a positive. While the top pick is interesting from a price perspective, you have to
include this veteran in the Pick 5.



Race 6- 1 st #10 HARLEM HEIGHTS 2 ND #9 FAST CHICA 3 RD #6 BACK CHANNEL

#10 HARLEM HEIGHTS was third in a MSW when last seen and the 1-2 finishers from that MSW event are
now graded stake winners. This sibling of Grade I winner Pine Island is coming back off a lengthy break today,
but is doing so at the distance she looked to handle well on debut. The outside post and blinkers going on
should have her in an ideal spot stalking the pace today. #9 FAST CHICA is a firster by Fast Anna, whose
progeny score on debut at a 17% clip. This gal is the first foal to race out of a multiple stakes winning Texas-
bred mare and the worktab here looks solid. #6 BACK CHANNEL was second best in a horrific field
dominated by the prohibitive favorite from Chad Brown’s barn. This gal ran credibly but will have to improve
today in a far tougher MSW affair. You’ll also have to accept a depressed price.

Race 7- 1 st #5 NO WORD 2 ND #6 BUY ME CANDY 3 RD #1 OUR COUNTRY

#5 NO WORD exits a salty N1X for 3YO and up and now drops significantly in class to face straight 3YOs. He
rallied nicely last time to snag the show dough and is capable of being a little closer to the early pace than he
was that day. That’s a good thing given the expected pace in this affair. #6 BUY ME CANDY is the likely
pacesetter as he ships up for trainer “Nacho” Correas. He made the lead last time out and battled nicely to the
wire to check in second at 17-1. Jockey Jose Lezcano is quite underrated when it comes to riding speed
horses and he coud find himself in control of this race down the backstretch. #1 OUR COUNTRY had no real
excuse last time out when he failed as the favorite. He showed real potential as a 2YO and has yet to realize it
in 2020. He is drawn favorably and is another who’s quick enough to stay within range early.

Race 8- 1 st #5 MRS. DANVERS 2 ND #2 GRAND CLU CLASSE 3 RD #6 MAIDEN BEAUTY

#5 MRS. DANVERS is a complete standout as she goes 2 nd off a layoff following a game 2 nd place finish
against similar here on Belmont day. She should have no issue with the one mile distance and will be wound
tighter second off the bench. Comfortably single her in any multi-race play. #2 GRAND CLU CLASSE is a
second timer who showed maturity in a smashing debut win over a wet track. While it is hard to embrace
Florida shippers this time of year, it’s clear this gal ran a big race at first asking. #6 MAIDEN BEAUTY goes 2 nd
off a layoff as well and he ran an even race last week here against similar foes. She has run speed figures
against NY breds that make her competitive, and the distance is clearly no issue whatsoever.

Race 9- 1 st #4 COME STORMING 2 ND #6 SIMPLY MISS RED 3 RD #7 MATADOR MOON

#4 COME STORMING simply looks better than her competition here. She hung in there gamely after
contesting the pace last time out, and has been the only Tom Bush trainee at this meet to run well. She is set
to leave the maiden ranks now second off the bench dropping again in a weak field. #6 SIMPLY MISS RED is
a late runner who ran a fair race when second last time out against a huge favorite. She has shown enough on
turf to be considered a major threat today in a race where contention does anything but run deep. #7
MATADOR MOON is a second timer who showed some life on debut. She gets blinkers and should be more
involved early with that race behind her.

BELMONT MEET STATS: 209-54-34-25 $317.40